Today’s NBA targets breakdown takes a look at tonight’s games, Saturday November 29th and pinpoints some studs and sleepers you might want to target at each position.
POINT GUARD TARGETS
Chris Paul at UTA ($9,800)-Paul and John Wall are both the same salary and the most expensive point guards for tonight’s games. If I have to choose, I’ll go with Paul. The Jazz defense as a whole hasn’t been that great this season. In recent games they’ve been giving up 38.3 fantasy points per game to point guards. Paul is the model of consistency with a high ceiling as well, so you know what you’re getting from him when you have him in you lineup.
Jeff Teague vs. CHA ($7,400)-Teague has been playing really well as of late, and has a favorable matchup against the Hornets this evening. The Hornets surrender the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing guards (42), but in the last five games, they’ve allowed 44.5 fantasy points per game. Teague has scored over 40 fantasy points in each of his last four games. In that span, he’s scored 24 or more points and has at least one steal in each game. A player that’s on a hot streak against a vulnerable defense, what’s not to like?
Devin Harris at PHI ($4,300)-Harris has started two games in a row in place of Jameer Nelson who has been dealing with back spasms. Nelson is a game-time decision for Saturday’s game, and if he can’t play Harris will get the start again. In the last two games, Harris has scored over 23 fantasy points. In fact any time this season he’s received over 30 minutes, he’s scored more than 23 fantasy points. He has a good matchup against the Sixers who allow 41.5 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. So long as he’s starting, it can be a great bargain.
Donald Sloan at CLE ($5,200)-If you’re looking to save some money at the point guard position, Sloan could be a good option. He’s economical and has a good matchup. The Cavaliers have allowed 44.8 fantasy points per game to point guards in their last five games. As of late, Sloan hasn’t been playing well, but the minutes are there, so a favorable matchup could be just the thing he needs.
SHOOTING GUARD TARGETS
James Harden at MIL ($10,500)-Harden has had more opportunities in recent games due to Dwight Howard being sidelined. He’s scored more than 50 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Harden is the best point guard in today’s games, and should continue to produce at a high level because Howard is considered doubtful for Saturday’s game. If you’re feeling lavish, Harden should be someone on your radar.
Monta Ellis at PHI ($8,400)-You’ll likely see a lot of Mavericks players on this list because of how good of a matchup this is. The only concern is if this game becomes a blowout and these players sit out late in the game. Ellis is averaging 36.17 fantasy points per game over the last six games. The Sixers are the worst team defending shooting guards. They allow 51.8 fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards. Despite the concern of this game being a blowout, Ellis remains a top option today.
O.J. Mayo vs. HOU ($4,700)-His shooting has been off as of late, but he has still managed to score more than 20 fantasy points in his last four games. He’s also received over 26 minutes in each of his last three games. Mayo has worked his way into the starting lineup and has a good matchup ahead of him. The Rockets are giving up the eighth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards (36.2). The Bucks will have to put up points this evening to keep up with the Rockets. Look for Mayo to take plenty of shots tonight.
Rodney Stuckey at CLE ($4,300)-Stuckey has scored over 20 points in his last two games. He’s been one of the few sparks in the Pacers offense. In his last four games he has scored 22.5 or more fantasy points per game. The Cavs have surrendered 35.8 fantasy points per game in their last five games. If you’re looking for a cheap shooting guard with a good matchup, Stuckey fits that category.
SMALL FORWARD TARGETS
Lebron James vs. IND ($11,600)-The most expensive salary on Saturday goes to LeBron James. He has scored over 58 fantasy points in back-to-back games and has a great matchup against the Pacers tonight. The Pacers have allowed 37 fantasy points per game to small forwards in the last 10 games. James has put up three consecutive double-doubles and I can easily see a fourth today.
Gordon Hayward vs. LAC ($7,200)-Somehow, Hayward finds many of my lineups. His always seems appealing to me. He’s the second most expensive small forward this week, but is still $4400 cheaper than Lebron James. That’s another player’s salary. Granted, they are in two different stratospheres, but in two of the last three games, Hayward has scored over 40 fantasy points. In fact, he’s scored over 40 fantasy points in four games this season. They don’t come often, but they do come, and if it means saving $4400 for a player who has a high ceiling and high floor, it’s worth it to me.
Donatas Motiejunas at MIL ($4,800)-He is averaging 33.25 minutes per game over the last four games with all of the injuries to the Rockets team. In that span, he is averaging 28.6 fantasy points per game and has scored more than 30 fantasy points, twice. Motiejunas is expected to get the start once again tonight. The Bucks have struggled as of late against power forwards, allowing 36 fantasy points per game. Motiejunas has shown that when he gets minutes, he can produce, and at this price it’s a good bargain.
Jabari Parker vs. HOU ($3,800)-If you’re looking for a cheap flier at small forward, Parker is someone to consider. In the last six games he has scored over 24 fantasy points in five of those games. He has also scored over 30 points in three of those games. Tonight, he’ll be covered by Trevor Ariza who is one of the better defenders at his position, but this price can’t be overlooked. He’s $1900 cheaper than he was in the previous game. Expecting 30+ points is unrealistic, but mid 20’s sounds about right. He should have no trouble reaching value.
POWER FORWARD TARGETS
Anthony Davis at WAS ($11,400)-If I’m spending the big bucks today, I’m splurging on Davis. In his last four games, he’s had three subpar performances for his standards, yet still scored more than 34 fantasy points in each of those games. The Wizards have been pretty solid against power forwards this season, but have allowed 38.4 fantasy points per game in their last five. There’s no way on earth that Kris Humphries will be able to cover, or even contain, Davis today. I’m expecting a 50+ fantasy point game from Davis today.
Blake Griffin at UTA ($9,400)-If you want to save the $2000, I don’t blame you. Griffin has a great matchup against the Jazz that have been getting pounded by power forwards in recent games, allowing 43 fantasy points per game. Not to mention that in the last three games Griffin has score more than 35 fantasy points in each game and has two 40+ fantasy point performances. Griffin is balling, and should continue to do so against the Jazz tonight.
Tarik Black at MIL ($3700)-Black is expected to start tonight in place of Dwight Howard. In two games that he’s received more than 20 minutes, Black has scored more than 19 fantasy points. The Bucks allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards (40.9), and have allowed 44.1 in the last five games. Black is a cheap power forward option that should see plenty of minutes as long as he gets the start. Keep an eye on Howard’s status if you plan on playing Black.
Cody Zeller at ATL ($4,500)-Zeller has been playing 29+ minutes in the last four games, and has done pretty good in that timeframe. He’s scored 22 or more fantasy points in each of those games. He’s expected to get the start once again this evening against a Hawks defense that struggles against power forwards. They give up 41.4 fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards. As long as the minutes are there for Zeller, the production should be there as well.
Al Jefferson at ATL ($8,400)-Jefferson is one of the top Centers in the game, and has been playing really well in recent games. In his last five games, he has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of those games. The Hawks give up 42.7 fantasy points per game to opposing Centers. With Dwight Howard questionable for tonight, Jefferson becomes the top play.
Tyson Chandler at PHI ($6,500)-Chandler has put together some nice games over the last four games. He has scored more than 31 fantasy points in three of the games, has three double-doubles, seven blocks, and 57 rebounds, including a 25 rebound game against the Nicks. Needless to say, he’s been playing well. Tonight, he has a great matchup against the Sixers who allow 45.4 fantasy points per game to Centers. This should be another productive evening for Chandler.
Enes Kanter vs.LAC ($6,100)-Kanter may not be the cheapest Center available tonight, but could still be a great value at this price. He will face the Clippers that have struggled against the Center position all season and even more as of late. For the season, they are allowing 45.8 fantasy points per game, but in the last five games, Centers have scored 53.9 fantasy points per game against them. Kanter has scored over 35 fantasy points twice in the last five games. If you’re trying to save some cash at the Center position, he is a good option.
Omer Asik at WAS ($4,100)-In his second game back from a four game absence due to a back injury, Asik posted a double-double. Tonight’s matchup is not the most appealing, but his price is. Prior to the injury, his price was never less than $5600. I’ll take the $1500 discount, and use those savings elsewhere. I’m not expecting a monster game by any means, but there should be no reason why Asik doesn’t meet value, or exceed it, based on price alone.