Tuesday night features a three-game main slate that doesn’t tip-off until 8 PM. Highlighting the trio of Game 5s, the Rockets will attempt to close out the Thunder in Houston, while the Spurs and Clippers will try and defend their home courts in tied series against the Grizzles and Jazz respectively.
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Russell Westbrook ($14,200) – He’s soooooo expensive, but fading Russ as he battles for his team’s postseason life scares me. Stars typically have to do more for their teams on the road in the playoffs, particularly in desperate situations, while the role players contribute more at home. Westbrook easily has the potential to flirt with 100 DKFP tonight, but if for some reason he only gets around 60, it’ll be tough to swallow. Proceed with caution. Blake-less CP3 also makes for a fantastic option at nearly a $4k discount.
Other Options – Chris Paul ($10,300), Mike Conley ($8,000)
Tony Parker ($4,500) — After an absolute dud in Game 3, Parker gave us a throwback in Game 4, going for 35.5 DKFP in 37 minutes. But don’t forget that TP also exceeded value in both Games 1 and 2 as well. $4,500 just seems too cheap for him around playoff time, and we know he has the ability when he plays the minutes. If anything, Parker’s an extremely safe play. After posting poor numbers on the road, Patrick Beverly is also in play as he returns home, where he averaged over 37 DKFP in the first two games of that series.
Other Options – Patrick Beverley ($5,000), Austin Rivers ($3,600)
James Harden ($10,600) — Harden is pretty cheap on this slate, and rightfully so with how he played in Game 4, with all the other scoring options in Houston’s backcourt. The next closest SG option $5k is cheaper. I kind of like the spot Harden is in, though, as he’ll be doing everything in his power to keep this series from going back to OKC. Someone’s going to have to match Westbrook out there if Houston’s going to win this game, even if the role players perform, and Harden’s the only option. He only needs about 55 DKFP to hit value, which is very reasonable.
Joe Johnson ($5,500) — With or without Gordon Hayward, Iso Joe has proven his worth. His floor is low if Hayward dominates, as Johnson did score under 20 DKFP twice this series, but I’d expect things to level off in Game 5 — meaning Hayward and Johnson both contribute as featured wing scorers. What you’re paying for here is upside, as nobody else on this slate in this price range can put up points like Johnson can. The Clippers will struggle to defend both of these guys, yet the focus will likely remain on Hayward.
Other Options – Lou Williams ($5,200), Eric Gordon ($4,900)
Kawhi Leonard ($9,600) — Kawhi was spectacular in the Spurs’ loss on Saturday night, and he is in a perfect position at home for Game 5. Although I don’t expect him to repeat his 71 DKFP performance, exceeding value seems very likely as long as Memphis can hang around in this one. Leonard averaged over 50 DKFP in the two games in San Antonio so far this series, even with the Grizz losing by an average of 21.5 points.
Other Options — Gordon Hayward ($7,400)
Andre Roberson ($5,700) — Although his free throw shooting might’ve cost OKC a game in this series (2-for-17 overall), Roberson has stepped his game up in every other category. Having scored 31+ DKFP in each game of the series, he seems like a safe option to hit value again tonight. We know he’s going to see the floor (35+ minutes in each game this series) with his primary job being to cover Harden. SF tonight is thin, to say the least, although you can slot Johnson in here as well.
Other Options – Luc Richard Mbah A Moute ($4,000), Vince Carter ($3,700)
Zach Randolph ($6,600) — This is pretty much a stud-less PF slate in my opinion. Your three options are Hayward (but I prefer paying down for Johnson who isn’t PF eligible), LaMarcus Aldridge (who’s been a ghost in this series, averaging 26 DKFP) and Randolph … who I guess I hate the least. You know he’s going to crash the glass and has the ability to score, so putting together a 38.5 DKFP game like he did in Game 2 isn’t off the table.
Other Options – LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,200)
Derrick Favors ($5,400) — Favors gave the Clippers a lot of problems in their first full game without Blake — 30 DKFP in 24 minutes. Even with the return of Rudy Gobert, it left me wondering why he didn’t play more. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Favors’ minutes on the up tonight, leaving him in a nice spot to exceed value.
Other Options – Mo Speights ($4,100), JaMychal Green ($3,300)
Marc Gasol ($7,100) — I like the idea of going with Gasol much more than Randolph, but at least we finally have some options for studs at a position. The Gobert vs. Jordan matchup has a lot of potential, but I feel like they cancel each other out some and it winds up hurting both of their fantasy lines. Gasol is the only pure scorer of the group, so he’s my top choice at center tonight, which is nice because he’s also the cheapest of the three.
Other Options – Rudy Gobert ($7,900), DeAndre Jordan ($7,800)
Steven Adams ($4,900) — OKC didn’t win Game 4, but they had a chance to. Much of the reason it was in the game was the play of Adams, so the Thunder might be onto something here. Enes Kanter played just eight minutes in Game 4, while Adams went for 37 and racked up a fantasy point per minute. I think we see OKC go with the same strategy here.
Other Options – Nene ($4,400)
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