The NBA Game Breakdown takes an in-depth look at all of the games on the schedule each day in terms of expected pace of play, Vegas lines and defense vs. position matchups.

KINGS AT GRIZZLIES

Game Analysis

The Grizzlies (7-1) haven’t lost at home this season and a lot of that has to do with their great resolve on defense, and you have to love the fact that they’ve been dominant over the Kings (5-3) winning 14 out of 16 games while taking the last seven. The Kings have also lost 16 out of their last 19 road trips to Memphis. Expect the Grizzlies to slow the pace of this game down quite a bit, keeping the Kings from getting anywhere close to their 103.0 point average. I see this being a high-80’s game, with Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley leading the way defensively. The Kings will need Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins to be lights-out if they expect to win this game. I’m taking the Grizzlies to cover giving 6.5. When filling out your DFS lineup, get Mike Conley in there with his excellent OPRK matchup.

Line: MEM -6.5

Players to Watch

  • Marc Gasol, C, Grizzlies ($7,700)
  • Mike Conley, SG, Grizzlies ($7,000)
  • Zach Randolph, PF, Grizzlies ($7,300)
  • Tony Allen, SF, Grizzlies($4,200)

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BULLS AT RAPTORS

Game Analysis

This will be the game of the night on Thursday with the Raptors (7-1) looking for their eighth win of the season. What’s most impressive is that the Raptors have picked up a few of their wins by playing great come-from-behind basketball; however, they’re evenly matched against the Bulls (6-3) with no real advantage offensively. Both teams will have no issue pushing this game over the 100-point mark, which is why I like the over at 195. Players to look at closely considering matchups are Joakim Noah, who is currently averaging 30.2 FPPG, and Terrence Ross, who is averaging 20.4 FPPG but is doing so at a fantastic $4,400 salary. I’m not crazy about Pau Gasol’s matchup, but come on – can you really afford to ignore him? Nah. I wish I was in the crowd for this one.

Line: TOR -2.5

Players to Watch

  • Pau Gasol, C, Bulls ($8,100)
  • Joakim Noah, C, Bulls ($7,400)
  • Jimmy Butler, SG, Bulls ($6,400)
  • Terrence Ross, SF, Raptors ($4,200)

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76ERS AT MAVERICKS

Game Analysis

It’s been a rough ride to this point for the 76ers (0-7), who are actually playing worse basketball than the Lakers. They do get Michael Carter-Williams back in action on Thursday after recovering from shoulder surgery, so they’ll be looking to snag their first win of the year. But, against the Mavericks (5-3)? Not likely. The telling point is that they’ve giving up a 106.1 points per game on average (238 points over their last two games), which is second worst in the league. The Mavs shouldn’t have any problem dispatching the 76ers on Thursday, but I’m still taking the 76ers and the points as 13 is a ton to give. Some nice low values, with good matchups, to keep in mind in this one are Devin Harris and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute.

Line: DAL -13.0

Players to Watch

  • Monta Ellis, SG, Mavericks ($7,100)
  • Chandler Parsons, SF, Mavericks ($6,600)
  • Michael Carter-Williams, PG, 76ers ($6,000)
  • Devin Harris, SG, Mavericks ($5,500)

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NETS AT WARRIORS

Game Analysis

Stephen Curry is currently averaging 50.1 FPPG, so if you’re looking to play the Heroes-and-Zeroes lineup on Thursday, then you’ve got to get Curry in there. There just isn’t much the guy can’t do with the ball in his hands. The Warriors (5-2) are nine-point favorites in this game against the Nets (4-2), although I think that’s a bit too much to cover, even at home. Expect things to stay pretty tight in this game, even coming down to the last seconds. I like the value with a lot of the Nets players, but aside from Curry there are no “must-haves” from the Warriors. Klay Thompson comes close, but I’m not particularly fond of his OPRK matchup.

Line: GS -9.0

Players to Watch

  • Stephen Curry, PG, Warriors ($10,100)
  • Deron Williams, PG, Nets ($7,600)
  • Joe Johnson, SG, Nets ($6,700)
  • Kevin Garnett, PF, Nets ($4,900)