It’s Tuesday, time to clear your mind of any Grizzlies nightmares, focus in on your inner Lillard, and get ready for this steady, six-game slate tonight. Let’s get to it!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @Jasoh_Walker_72.
Stats from StatMuse, NBAWowy, NBA Stats, Nylon Calculus
|Out||Danilo Gallinari (DEN), Lou Williams (LAL), Gary Neal (WAS), DeMarre Carroll (TOR), Tim Duncan (SAS), Manu Ginobili (SAS), Tony Parker (SAS)|
|Questionable||Kobe Bryant (LAL), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Bradley Beal (WAS), Alan Anderson (WAS)|
|Probable||Gary Harris (DEN), Jameer Nelson (DEN), Kenneth Faried (DEN), Kristaps Porzingis (NYK)|
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors
Line: Raptors by 12
Two of the worst five defenses over the last 15 games go head to head here, with the Nets giving ground to the Raptors strength in the backcourt, making Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan their usual solid plays at their positions. DeRozan is in the top five this season in free throws made per 36 minutes and showed that skill well in his last two games, notching 24 and 11 free throws made (FTM) in those two contests. The Nets, however, give up the third fewest free throws, probably because they play such bad defense. DeRozan will still get his, but I probably lean toward this being a Lowry game.
The Nets went off with their bench the last time out, with stat rate warrior Thomas Robinson getting his chance to show off his prodigious rebounding skills to the tune of 17 rebounds in 40 minutes. If Thaddeus Young should miss again, by all means, play Robinson, but another round of Robinson/Reed is not likely tonight, leaving you with Brook Lopez and some Markel Brown, who has played well the last couple of games, averaging 35.88 DraftKings Points Per Game (DKPPG).
- Kyle Lowry ($8,800)
- DeMar DeRozan ($7,700)
- Markel Brown ($3,800)
- Brook Lopez ($7,500)
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Line: Spurs by 11
The first couple of times Karl-Anthony Towns played the Spurs was in December and he didn’t shoot much in those two contests, scoring almost a DraftKings Point Per Minute (DKPPM) over the pair of contests. The KAT is more assertive now, and the Spurs are on the wrong end of a back-to-back on the road, so maybe KAT has a little more fun on a Spurs-reduced salary of 7.9K. He’ll be lower owned than usual, and he’s getting 43 DKPPG over his last five games. Along those same lines is Zach LaVine, who has been solid (31 DKPPG) over his last five games and has 45 DK points in 48 minutes this season against the Spurs. Keep an eye on the Spurs lineup, and if they rest Danny Green, LaVine takes a step up here.
You never know with the Spurs in this situation, but should everybody be a go for this one, the wings, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, are positive matchups. LaMarcus Aldridge, who is back below 7K despite his 38.2 DKPPG average over the last seven games is in play, as well. Leonard has led the Spurs in usage (29%) since returning from a brief injury break and leads in DKPPG (46.2) over the same span. On a slate with few solid SF options, Leonard’s matchup and production stands out. The Timberwolves have been the second worst defense over the last 15 games, so if Tony Parker misses, consider Patty Mills in play at 4K as well.
- LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,800)
- Kawhi Leonard ($8,200)
- Zach LaVine ($5,800)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,900)
New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets
Line: Nuggets by 3.5
The Knicks are the ninth worst defense over the last 15 games, specifically bad in the backcourt. Emmanuel Mudiay, over his last four games, has put up the following numbers: 35 mpg, 18 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 26% usage and 39 DKPPG. He’s 6.3K, making him a certain target tonight. I’d love to tell you Nikola Jokic is the man and is a steal at 6K. After all, he’s put up 38.5 and 40.5 his last two games, and the Knicks have given up the eighth most fantasy points to centers over the last three weeks. But, Michael Malone (Nuggets Head Coach)… He loves going small with his eleven guards on the roster (exaggeration, but only slightly) leaving Jokic out of the mix for high minutes, which is why he only had 38.5 DraftKings Fantasy Points (DKFP) in his last game although it was in 20 minutes. Still, if you are playing tourneys only right now, you have to strongly consider him. His upside is enormous.
“He’s put up 38.5 and 40.5 his last two games, and the Knicks have given up the eighth most fantasy points to centers over the last three weeks”
I like Robin Lopez here, too, but if the Nuggets go small (again, Michael Malone) Lopez may not get 30 minutes tonight. He has been more active though since Rambis took over and has games of 35.35, 32 and 41.50 in three of his last four games. Is it too late for REVENGE?!!! Carmelo heads back to Denver here and is close to 31% usage over the last four games. He’s averaged 46 DKPPG over that span and has a positive matchup here against Denver guards.
- Emmanuel Mudiay ($6,300)
- Nikola Jokic ($6,000)
- Carmelo Anthony ($8,400)
- Robin Lopez ($5,800)
Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz
Line: Jazz by 1
The Hawks are weak against frontcourt players and have been a consistent target there all season. Nothing has changed. They still abandon the offensive glass and get beat pretty bad on the defensive glass. This puts Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors into the fabled catbird seats, along with revenge game candidate Shelvin Mack.
The Jazz are tough but in targeting the Hawks, you have to play the minutes here. The top three over the last four games are Paul Millsap (revenge!), Al Horford, and Kent Bazemore. Baze has the best matchup between the three but you’ll probably look to target elsewhere; however, these three are your best targets tonight against the tough defensive team because point guards Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder continue to split time.
- Rudy Gobert ($6,600)
- Shelvin Mack ($4,300)
- Paul Millsap ($8,000)
- Kent Bazemore ($5,200)
Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers
Line: Blazers by 5
The main event between the top two PGs of the night, John Wall and Damian Lillard. It’s tough to look away from Dame right now, as his rampage has spawned almost 22 shots per game over his last ten games, 36% usage and 47 DKPPG. But over here is Wall, with 30% usage and also with 47 DKPPG on 19 FGA per game. Lillard’s the softer defensive target, but there’s something to be said for his sheer volume as well. Neither has much else to work with, Wall w/Gortat and Lillard with McCollum, so maybe the 200 dollar value in Wall might make the difference for you. Or roster both.
Marcin Gortat is an excellent secondary target against the terrible Blazers frontcourt defense, but Bradley Beal and Gary Neal are out, so keep an eye on Alan Anderson, who is 3.1K and getting over 20 minutes of floor time with 20 DKPPG over his last three games.
- Damian Lillard ($9,600)
- C.J. McCollum ($7,200)
- John Wall ($9,400)
- Alan Anderson ($3,100)
Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Lakers
Line: Magic by 2.5
This is a great under-the-radar point guard matchup with Elfrid Payton and D’Angelo Russell. They can compare minute fluctuation and bench time from their respective head coaches and score a lot of point against each other. Russell is at 30% usage over his last five games and scoring 37 DKPPG over that span. Payton does it different, getting 32 DKPPG over that span with peripherals (steals, blocks, assists, etc.) boosting his efforts.
Surprisingly, Nikola Vucevic has really picked up the usage torch and carried it to the front for the Magic recently, checking in at 33% over his last five games. The matchup is very good for him as well, so as long as Scott Skiles doesn’t get mad at his team and needlessly limit his minutes. Even at 7.8K, he’ll be a solid target tonight, as long as he’s active (currently questionable).
Julius Randle has been producing more DKPPG with more usage and minutes than Aaron Gordon, and is less expensive (6.2K to 6.7K), so I like Julius at home in this spot/matchup.
Editor’s Note (3:30 PM ET) – Kobe Bryant is ’50/50′ to play tonight against the Magic. If Bryant were to miss the game we’d likely see additional opportunities for both Russell and Clarkson (mentioned above). Bryant has been playing less of late but his absence paired with the Lou Williams injury could also open up minutes for Marcelo Huertas ($3,200). Huertas, a 32 year old rookie, has played 31, 32 and 27 minutes over his last three games and has at least 18 DK points in each of those games.
Editor’s Note (7:15 PM ET) – Kobe Bryant has been ruled out for tonight. See the note above for the DraftKings implications of Bryant’s absence.
- Elfrid Payton ($5,900)
- Nikola Vucevic (if playing) ($7,800)
- D’Angelo Russell ($6,900)
- Julius Randle ($6,200)