Hello, it’s Tuesday! And if you believed that Kyrie Irving and Paul George were in great spots last night, then put on a sweatshirt to feel comfortable, make a tasty hot beverage to sip, and then let’s have some fun on this bunny rabbit of a four-game slate. Let’s get to it!
As always, if you have any questions, find me on Twitter @Jason_Walker_72.
Stats from StatMuse, NBAWowy, NBA Stats
|Probable||Brook Lopez (BKN), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BKN), Kevin Durant (OKC), Steven Adams (OKC), Goran Dragic (MIA), James Harden (HOU), Kobe Bryant (LAL)|
|Questionable||Ryan Kelly (LAL)|
|Doubtful||Ryan Anderson (NO), Kyle SIngler (OKC), Norris Cole (NO)|
|Out||Anthony Davis (NO), P.J. Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM), Larry Nance, Jr. (LAL), Marvin Williams (CHA)|
Editor’s Note (6:25 PM ET): Marvin Williams is OUT on Tuesday. Frank ‘The Tank’ Kaminsky will draw the start in Williams’ place and is an intriguing play at just $3,100. Kaminsky hasn’t seen a ton of minutes this season but should play at least 20-25 tonight. The other boost goes to Cody Zeller ($3,500) who has 22 and 30 DK points in his last two games and is set to see a slight boost tonight as well.
Charlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets
Line: Hornets by 5
The Hornets were looking sluggish against the Spurs, but then Linsanity happened, and the Hornets ended victorious. Lin ended the game with 43.25 DK points in 30 minutes. That’s more DK points than he had in the previous three games combined. Courtney Lee also scored 30 DK points in that one, but has definitely been the player with more consistent, and starting, minutes between him and Lin. Lee will likely be the lesser targeted player since Linsanity carries its own special brand of recency bias and a higher ceiling, generally. Cody Zeller is low raw usage, but has been putting up solid peripherals over the last five games and near Batum-level peripherals the last two games. He has a plus matchup tonight against Brook Lopez, and they may need more minutes from him with Marvin Williams questionable tonight with an ankle injury.
*”His [Bogdanovic’s] raw usage over the last 10 games is 25 and his DKPPG is 30, and he’s in a positive spot tonight against the Hornets…”*%
Remember when Bojan Bogdanovic was a 4K play? Gone. His role has grown, and his productivity is such that he’s worth a look on a short-slate at 5.5K. His raw usage over the last 10 games is 25% and his DKPPG is 30, and he’s in a positive spot tonight. Thaddeus Young has been the Nets’ player with the best peripherals over the last 10 games, with a 20 DKPPG average on that alone over that span. He has a good individual matchup against the Hornets frontcourt. Keep an eye on the status of Brook Lopez — if he’s still down with an illness, Willie Reed or Henry Sims at 3K are good spot starts.
– Cody Zeller ($3,500)
– Courtney Lee ($3,400)
– Thaddeus Young ($7,100)
– Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,500)
Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans
Line: Heat by 9
The Heat have been one of the top teams over the last 15 games, playing great offensive basketball, while stifling opponents defensively. Also over that span, the Heat have picked up the pace, landing in the top half of teams in terms of possessions per game. Leading the way has been the strong duo of Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. Both have positive matchups here, especially as Whiteside comes off the bench to find Kendrick Perkins joining him on the floor tonight. Dragic has really upped his production with the improved pace, climbing up to 37 DKPPG and 23.2% raw usage over that span. Whiteside is a peripherals beast, jiving with his league leading shot blocking and rebounding rate. This is good for a Pelicans team who, in the last five games after the team had a slew of injuries, gives up a lot of defensive rebounds.
New Orleans has suffered a bunch of injuries, and that’s compressed the opportunities down considerably. With Ryan Anderson out again and Anthony Davis out for the year, Omer Asik and Dante Cunningham have started to play longer minutes and seeing their counting stats increase along with that. The guards are doing all the using, with Jrue Holiday (27%), Toney Douglas (20%), and Tim Frazier (27%) all sporting high raw usage rates, but the peripherals have been left largely to Cunningham and Asik.
– Goran Dragic ($6,500)
– Hassan Whiteside ($8,000)
– Omer Asik ($3,500)
– Dante Cunningham ($3,600)
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Line: Thunder by 9.5
Both James Harden (probable) and Kevin Durant (playing) are in the mix tonight, so this should be a fun, highly owned, offensive battle featuring the top daily fantasy scorers going right now. Westbrook is getting a shocking 31 DK points per game from non-scoring events over the last five games. Incredible. Toss in his 31% raw usage, 20 point per game average, and he has one of the highest floors in DFS. Durant hasn’t been bad, either, getting 24-25 DKPPG from peripherals and scoring nearly 52 DKPPG overall in that span of time. Enes Kanter has played more minutes than Steven Adams both times the Rockets played them this season, so keep an eye on him at 5.2K in a plus matchup as well.
For the Rockets, James Harden wasn’t going to miss this game, right? Over the last three seasons, Harden has gone from 43.3 to 56.2 to 58.3 DKPPG against his former team. This season, Harden has averaged 34% raw usage and should be ready to rock and roll against a Thunder team that gives up the fourth most steals (Harden averages 1.6 per game) and fourth most free throw attempts per game (Harden is #1 in the NBA over the past 15 games in FTM/game). Don’t overthink it.
– Patrick Beverley ($4,600)
– James Harden ($10,500)
– Russell Westbrook ($10,600)
– Kevin Durant ($10,400)
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Line: Grizzlies by 3
Most of the Grizzlies are back, so it’s lessened the awesomeness that was seeing Lance Stephenson and Vince Carter getting major minutes. Stephenson is still a tricky tourney play, but what we’ve seen with Zach Randolph back in the mix is a fixed lineup of Ray McCallum, Tony Allen, Matt Barnes, Zach Randolph, and Ryan Hollins, with Z-Bo moving to center and seeing JaMychal Green getting in there at PF, while Stephenson and Carter backfill the starting wings. McCallum is not a point per minute player, but when he gets 35 minutes, it’s still 7-8x value at 3.2K, especially in this matchup against the Lakers.
“The Grizzlies have been getting hit hard by opposing guards since the trade deadline”
Byron Scott has taken to playing the whole roster under 30 minutes lately, meaning guys like Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell, who some teams would be playing more for their own development, are seeing some of the same minutes as Marcelo Huertas and Brandon Bass. Until that changes, those other guys are tourney only. Lou Williams has been getting his run back, now healthy. Williams’ raw usage leads the Lakers over the past five games and he’s been averaging 32.2 DKPPG over the same. The Grizzlies have been getting hit hard by opposing guards since the trade deadline, so Williams will find his spots pretty easily here. Huertas has been producing well as a floor leader, when on the court, rivaling Randle for top honors among Lakers DK points from peripherals.
– Ray McCallum ($3,200)
– Tony Allen ($4,700)
– Lou Williams ($5,000)
– Marcelo Huertas ($3,600)