We have a nice 8 game slate to take a look at for Saturday’s NBA Game Breakdown. It is a quality spot to look at for NBA DFS with only one blowout expected and all but one game with totals over 200. San Antonio and Atlanta is the only one that is not. That game has a total of 191, but will likely be the one game on the day many basketball fans want to watch. Fandom aside, there are much better spots to target for fantasy purposes, so let’s take a look at some of those.

Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets

Over/Under: 204
Line: Charlotte -1

Charlotte is very tough at home and paced up for this matchup against the Celtics. Neither team has any dominate post presences, so this game should be guard heavy and fast paced. Charlotte has been hot lately, as they come into this one winners of 9 of the last 11 games they have played. This one is expected to be close with a nice total of 204. The injury to Big Al has opened up some minutes and value on the Hornets side of the ball, while Marcus Smart being out has done the same for the Celtics. The Celtics are still toying with their lineups, so it’s never easy to figure out the minutes expected on a Brad Stevens team.

Targets

  • Kemba Walker ($7000)
  • Frank Kaminsky ($3400)
  • Evan Turner ($4900)
  • Jared Sullinger ($6400)

Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons

Over/Under: 201
Line: Indiana -1

This is a very interesting game with some interesting DvP matchups. The biggest fantasy producer for the Pistons is Center Andre Drummond. Despite the fact Ian Mahini has played better lately, the Pacers have struggled with containing opposing centers. Paul George has been playing a lot of stretch power forward for the Pacers this season. He would create a bad mismatch if Ersan Ilyasova was the guy trying to guard him. George is now very expensive, but he has put up 50 and 60 fantasy points regularly, so it make sense for him to be there. Most of the guys who play big minutes on both teams are healthy now, so there is no value opened up that way. The two shooting guards here are both cheap, so that’s about as much value as you get in this one.

Targets

  • Andre Drummond ($9500)
  • Kentavius Caldwell-Pope ($4600)
  • Paul George ($10200)
  • Monta Ellis ($5400)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets

Over/Under: 209
Line: Rockets -11

This game has the biggest total and the biggest spread on the day. The one thing that screams out to me is potential blowout. Sometimes I think we worry too much about the chances that it does happen. The Rockets are still expected to score 110 points here, so it is not like the starters won’t get their numbers. That even holds true if they play a few less minutes. I would not look to stack Rockets here, but a matchup with the LA Lakers is one of the things we like to target in daily fantasy. On the flip side, The Lakers have some well priced players with talent. The problem is the rotation is tough to nail down. D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle have put up great numbers, but also have seen the minutes sliced. I have no idea what coach Byron Scott is thinking. I guess he feels they need to develop Lou Williams a little more for his future. While Williams and Russell are seeing all the minutes with Clarkson banged up, they would be the way I would look. The good news for them is that the rotation rarely changes whether the game is close or not. Russell may even play more garbage time in a blowout, so that helps the guys with younger fresher legs make value.

Targets

  • D’Angelo Russell ($4800)
  • Lou Williams ($4900)
  • James Harden ($10800)
  • Corey Brewer ($4000)

San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks

Over/Under: 191
Line: Spurs -3

The Student faces the teacher in this matchup of the Eastern Conference Spurs vs. the actual Spurs. It is a game I would like to watch, but not really target for fantasy purposes. 191 is one of the lowest totals on the day and players on both sides of this one are not really cheap. Parker sat out Friday, but should be good for this one. That means both of these teams are going to be at full strength. These two met two weeks back and the Spurs pulled away for a 20 point win. I expect this one to be a lot closer with the Hawks being at home. Again though, there are very few plays I would want in a game that has a low total.

Targets

  • Jeff Teague ($6700)
  • Paul Millsap ($8100)
  • Tim Duncan ($6000)
  • Kawhi Leonard ($8600)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Chicago Bulls

Over/Under: 204
Line: Chicago -6

The Pelicans have only won two of their last seven games. They are scoring around 100, but have given up more. That means they have really picked up the pace, which makes a lot of sense with Tyreke Evans back and attacking the rim. Chicago has gone 5-5 over there last ten. They have been scoring and giving up less points lately as well. This is an interesting Dynamic to look at here. The Bulls have not shown the offensive firepower to put up huge numbers and the Pelicans have not shown the ability to stop anyone on defense. Vegas expects the lack of Pelicans Defense to trump the lack of scoring power for the Bulls, so the team that gets ticked up here is probably Chicago. I would shy away from the Pelicans who face a decent defensive squad that plays slower than they do.

Targets

  • Tyreke Evans ($6900)
  • Anthony Davis ($10600)
  • Jimmy Butler ($7700)
  • Pau Gasol ($7700)

Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks

Over/Under: 208
Line: Dallas -6

Dallas has been hot and cold this year, but recently has slowed down the pace a little. Washington can not slow down anything and have been putting up and giving up huge numbers all season. The Wizards play at break neck speed, so the Mavericks get the big tick up in pace here. Both teams had some injures that have caused minutes to fluctuate. The Wizards have been hit especially hard. Hump and Nene are likely out. That means Gortat should see a ton of minutes and guys like Dudley and Porter could too as they go smaller. They will also need those guys to up their production, especially if Bradley Beal sits out again. Dallas seems to be healthy again as Wes Matthews is playing well and playing big minutes. Chandler Parsons is not fully back, but his minutes and production crept up. Dallas is now fully loaded and that helps and hurts some of their players production. Look for the guys who are still cheap and seeing big minutes. The pace and price of the Mavericks players should dictate who to use in this one.

Targets

  • Deron Williams ($6600)
  • Wesley Matthews ($5300)
  • John Wall ($9300)
  • Marcin Gortat ($6200)

Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under:
Line:

There is no line on this game, but let me make it easy for you anyway. Golden State is legit, even if Klay Thompson sits. Milwaukee is a little bit of a mess with a coach who keeps changing up the rotations and not playing his best players. I do not understand what Jason Kidd is doing most of the time. I do know that they only won 5 of their last 17 games, they struggle to score, and we have no idea who will or won’t get minutes on a daily basis. In fact the only thing that they have going for them is that the Warriors play at a huge pace, so the whole game will be paced up. As for the Warriors, they are undefeated to start the season. They play fast and they may actually be without Klay Thompson again here. If so, that ticks up all the other starters usage and minutes. Guys like Iguodala off the bench become more valuable and everyone is in play. This game could get ugly as most of them have for the Warriors. I do think we see some decent fantasy lines produced here though.

Targets

  • Jabari Parker ($4900)
  • Kris Middleton ($5200)
  • Draymond Green ($8200)
  • Andre Iguodala ($5200)

New York Knicks @ Portland Trailblazers

Over/Under: 199.5
Line: Portland -2

Portland has only won 4 of their last 9. The Knicks have only won 2 of their last 10. Neither team is playing good basketball right now. This is the game with the second lowest total on the day, even though it is basically 200 points. Portland has the faster tempo and have reached the triple digit mark more often. The Knicks have allowed other teams to score 100, but really have not reached the mark themselves all that often. Both teams have a superstar and two or three other good players that dominate the ball. For the Blazers that is Lilliard with his supporting cast and for the Knicks it is Melo. Neither of these teams is that great, but if I had to choose who has the better fantasy day, I would pick the Knicks who are the ones being paced up in this game.

Targets

  • Al-Farouq Aminu ($5100)
  • CJ McCollum ($6900)
  • Aaron Afflalo ($4600)
  • Carmelo Anthony ($7800)