Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Hornets vs. Heat – The total in this game is 210 with a spread of 3.5. The Hornets are playing great basketball right now, thanks in part to Kemba Walker. Walker is averaging of 35 mpg and I have him projected at 38 DKFP tonight. For the Heat it’s the bench man Hassan Whiteside that makes the most interesting play. Whiteside should have no problem getting points and boards in 30+ minutes against the Hornets tonight.
LOW O/U – Trail Blazers vs. Spurs- This is the lowest total of the evening (at publication) at 204 with a 11.5 spread. The Trail Blazers have rode Damian Lillard’s 32% usage rate to a whopping 40+ DKFP a game. He should still see about 40 DKFP tonight even in a tougher matchup. For the Spurs, both LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard are seeing over 20% usage rates and should each reach about 35+ DKFP tonight pending a close 3 quarters.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Wizards vs. 76ers – The projected game total in this one is 102.4. John Wall will look to continue his great play and 59 DKFP from last game. He is projected at 40+ tonight and should easily see this total. The 76ers will look to Nerlens Noel and Ish Smith for baskets. Out of the two, I like Ish with a 30% usage rate and a game projection of 30+ DKFP.
LOW PACE – Grizzlies vs. Bucks- This game screams low with a 94.4 projected game pace. I honestly don’t feel comfortable recommending a Griz as they are so injury riddled. The Bucks will ride the triple-double threat Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis would have posted another trip-doub last game if Jason Kidd didn’t set him down. I think he goes for 40+ DKFP tonight and maybe even more.
Be sure to follow injury news throughout the day for the latest updates on who’s in and who’s out.
|Probable||Derrick Rose (CHI), CJ Miles (IND), Hassan Whiteside (MIA), Brandon Knight (PHI), Damian Lillard (POR), Marcin Gortat (WAS)|
|Questionable||Ty Lawson (IND), Vince Carter (MEM), Kenneth Faried (DEN), Kyle Lowry (TOR)|
|Doubtful||Pau Gasol (CHI), Taj Gibson (CHI), Zach Randolph (MEM), Jerami Grant (PHI), Richaun Holmes (PHI), Robert Covington (PHI), Meyers Leonard (POR), Gordon Hayward (UTA)|
|Out||PJ Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM), Chris Andersen (MEM), Brandan Wright (MEM), Jahlil Okafor (PHI), Kent Bazemore (ATL), Ian Mahinmi (IND), Bradley Beal (WAS), Alan Anderson (WAS), Jonas Valanciunas (TOR)|
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Shelvin Mack (UTAH) vs. Phoenix Suns – The Suns are ranked 28th against opposing PGs. Mack has become the featured guard in Utah and is seeing a usage rate of 20%. I love his price and his projected 30 DKFP tonight.
WORST – Kemba Walker(CHA) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing guards. Kemba is usually better at home posting an average of 3 more points. On the road tonight, he will still see a usage rate of about 25%. I think he hits value tonight, but may not be in play for GPPs.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Rodney Hood (UTAH) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Hood has seen his playing time rise this year and he is at 30+ mpg. With a usage rate of about 20%, Hood should see about 25+ DKFP this evening.
WORST – CJ McCollum (POR) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. McCollum has been a pleasant surprise this year boasting 30+ DKFP a game. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight and feel like the matchup could be too tough for him.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Otto Porter (WAS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – The 76ers are ranked 28th against opposing SFs. Porter has hit value in the last 3 games and has seen his a usage rate of about 15%. He is projected at 25 DKFP tonight, but may be able to see more if his shot is dropping.
WORST – Al Farouq-Aminu (POR) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Aminu is more of a defensive forward and only lights up the scoreboard every couple of games. His 14% usage rate and average of 20 DKFP a game aren’t appealing to me.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Markieff Morris (WAS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – The 76ers are terrible against bigs and are ranked 28th against opposing PFs. Morris has found some new found life with the Wizards and has a usage rate of 20%. He is seeing about 25 DKFP a game and should get closer to 30+ on the evening.
WORST – Alex Len (PHO) vs. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs. Len has been a man on fire in March and has raised his season average to about 25 DKFP a game. If I had to take a big man from this game it would be Len but honestly I am staying away from both Len and Chandler.
BEST – Marcin Gortat (WAS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. Gortat has lost some of his usage due to the addition of Markieff Morris. He is now seeing a usage rate of about 15% and averaging about 30 DKFP a game. I think he reaches his season average tonight.
WORST – Tyson Chandler (PHO) vs. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing Cs. Chandler is more of a defensive C and only boasts a 9.6% usage rate. He averages about 20 DKFP a game. If you are looking to play a Phoenix big, look more toward Alex Len.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
John Wall ($9,800)- Wall put up some big numbers last night against an injury riddled Bulls team. He ended the night with 69 DKFP and could have potentially had more. He is seeing a usage rate of 27% and is averaging over 35 mpg. I think he is a lock for 40+ tonight barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Nikola Mirotic ($5,100) – Pau Gasol is out for at least a couple more games. Taj Gibson is also doubtful tonight. Who does this leave us with….Nikola Mirotic. Mirotic had a poor outing against Washington posting only 8.7 DKFP. He is basically the only option tonight for the Bulls in terms of a big man. He should see 30+ minutes and a usage of about 21%. I have him projected at 30 DKFP tonight, but feel like he could exceed this mark.
Dud of the Night
Devin Booker ($6,300) – With the return of Brandon Knight, Booker has seen his usage diminish. He has dropped to about a 20% usage rate but is still seeing about the same amount of court time. His matchup tonight is extremely difficult as he faces the 2nd ranked Jazz. I have him projected at 25 DKFP and think that the Jazz will do their best to lock the rookie down.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points