Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Pelicans vs. Kings – The total in this game is 222.5 with a spread of -2.5. The Pelicans will look to Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis for most of their scoring. Holiday has seen limited minutes over the past two games but should see closer to his 35 mpg average tonight and is projected at 40+ DKFP. Anthony Davis is averaging 50+ DKFP in the month of March. If he can stay healthy (which is always a big if) he should produce a similar total tonight. The Kings will rely on DeMarcus Cousins to do the bulk of the work. He put up 49.5 DKFP against the Lakers last night and is also averaging 50 DKFP a game. If the value plays fit, I am all in on a Brow/Boogie stack tonight.
LOW O/U – Hawks vs. Pistons- The Hawks/Pistons game is set at the lowest total of the night at 197.5 with a spread of -1. The Hawks will continue to ride Paul Millsap’s 24.3 percent usage rate in this one. Millsap is playing 36 mpg and is averaging 38 DKFP a game. I think he comes in around his season average tonight at 40 DKFP. The Pistons will hope that Andre Drummond can get out of his mini slump, in which he has averaged 28 DKFP. For a guy that is averaging 40+ DKFP over the season he is in desperate need of a pick up. I think he rights the ship tonight and comes in at about 45 DKFP.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
|New York||97.40||Golden State||104.00||100.70|
HIGH PACE – Thunder vs. Celtics – This game is actually the 2nd fastest on the night but it is still blazing fast at a 101.95 projected game pace. The Thunder will rely on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook’s average of 45+ DKFP a game with both projected at 50+ tonight. The Celtics will continue to be led by Isaiah Thomas who boasts a usage rate of 26% and is averaging 35+ DKFP on the season. I have him projected at 40+ DKFP tonight and feel like he should easily reach that mark.
LOW PACE – Mavericks vs. Cavaliers- This game has the lowest projected game pace on the night at 98.05. The Mavericks score pretty consistently across the board but Chandler Parsons has the best opportunity tonight. Parsons is averaging 37 mpg and has a usage rate of 20%. LeBron’s 27.4 percent usage rate and an average of 44 DKFP a game, LeBron should be good for 45+ tonight.
Note: This is not a full list of injuries. Be sure to follow news throughout the day for the latest updates.
|Probable||Kristaps Porzingis (NYK), C.J. Watson (ORL), Bradley Beal (WAS)|
|Questionable||Kelly Olynyk (BOS), Derrick Rose (CHI), Mike Dunleavy (CHI), Terrence Jones (HOU), Paul Pierce (LAC), Vince Carter (MEM), Lance Stephenson (MEM), Alan Anderson (WAS)|
|Doubtful||Ben McLemore (SAC), Norris Cole (NO)|
|Out||Jae Crowder (BOS), Spencer Hawes (CHA), Pau Gasol (CHI), Andre Iguodala (GSW), Zach Randolph (MEM), P.J. Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM), Lance Thomas (NYK), LeBron James (CLE), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Ersan Ilyasova (ORL), Elfrid Payton (ORL)|
Editor’s Note (5:25 PM): LeBron James is OUT tonight for the Cavaliers. Kyrie Irving had 38.3 DK points the last time LeBron sat out on February 28th and considering LeBron has a whopping 31.5 percent usage rate, we should expect Kyrie and Kevin Love to see a lot more opportunities to handle the ball. Shumpert will draw the start for James and he had 28.8 DK FP when LeBron sat out in late February. This season, when Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are on the court and LeBron is off, Kyrie has had a ridiculous 36.5 percent usage rate (compared to 29.3 percent average usage on the year).
Editor’s Note (5:45 PM): Elfrid Payton has been officially ruled out for tonight’s game. Brandon Jennings ($3,700) will draw another start and is coming off of a 35.75 fantasy point game on Tuesday night. The matchup against the Hornets isn’t perfect but at Jennings’ price tag he makes for one of the best value plays available given Payton’s absence.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – John Wall (WAS) vs. Chicago Bulls – The Bulls are ranked 28th against opposing PGs and Derrick Rose is questionable tonight. This is the perfect storm for John Wall, who is seeing a usage rate of 24.9% and averaging over 40 DKFP a game. I think he easily goes for 45+ DKFP on the evening.
Tons of Content for NBA Big Wednesday
|Player Targets||Levitan's Leverage||Cheat Sheet|
|Top Guards (VIDEO)||Top Forwards (VIDEO)||Top 5's by Position|
WORST – Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. However, Russell Westbrook is not your average opposing PG. With a usage rating of 28 and a 50 DKFP average season, Westbrook is basically matchup proof. He has an ongoing battle with Marcus Smart and he still is likely to post 50 fantasy points tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – JJ Redick (LAC) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 24th against opposing SGs. Reddick has a decent usage rate of 22.4% with Blake Griffin out. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight but I feel like the matchup bodes well for him to exceed that value.
WORST – Zach LaVine (MIN) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies are ranked 3rd against opposing SGs but the team that has been strong defensively is almost entirely injured tonight. LaVine has played well as a starter and is boasting a 20.6% usage rating. I have him projected at 30 DKFP tonight but it’s possible that the pace of this game, if it goes in the Grizzlies favor, may hinder LaVine’s chances to reach value.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Alonzo Gee (NOR) vs. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are ranked 25th against opposing SFs. Gee may be starting but a single digit usage rate (7%) and an average of 10 DKFP on the season makes him almost unplayable even with the best matchup.
WORST – Kent Bazemore (ATL) vs. Detroit Pistons- The Pistons are ranked 5th against opposing SFs. Bazemore has had a very inconsistent March, posting a game of 30+ and then 2 sup 20 games. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight but feel like we could still be facing regression with Baze.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Kevin Love (CLE) vs. Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks are ranked 27th against opposing PFs. Love still can seem to find himself in Cleveland and has posted back to back 25 DKFP games (well undervalue). I have him projected at 35 DKFP tonight, but I worry about consistency and whether or not he is mentally prepared to play for Cleveland.
WORST – Nikola Mirotic (CHI) vs. Washington Wizards – The Wizards are ranked 6th against opposing PFs. Mirotic was a pleasant surprise last game with a nice 30.25 DKFP performance. With Gasol sidelined, he should see his usage rate go up to about 23% and will have the opportunity to provide us with a replica performance tonight.
BEST – Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC) vs. New Orleans Pelicans- The Pelicans are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. Cauley-Stein is back in the starting lineup and should utilize his 10 extra minutes a game to boost his fantasy scoring. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight and wouldn’t be surprised to see him exceed that value.
WORST – Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies are still ranked in the top five against opposing Cs. This tells me that the sample size still hasn’t caught up to Marc Gasol’s injury as Gasol is one of the best interior defenders in the NBA. Towns is averaging 35+ DKFP on the season and has averaged 42.75 DKFP over his last nine games. I think he goes for 45 DKFP tonight against a decimated Grizzlies frontcourt.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins – SAC vs. NO – $10,600 – DeMarcus sort of underwhelmed last night with a 49 DKFP performance. He saw a $100 increase in price, which seems solely based on matchup. I think we see all we can handle of Boogie with his 30 percent usage rate tonight and he has the most potential to score 60 DraftKings points tonight. He’s also averaging 61 DKFP in three games against New Orleans this season.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Marcus Smart – BOS vs. OKC – $4,200 – Smart got the start for an injured Jae Crowder last night. He put up 23 DKFP and hit value. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight in a better matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder.
Dud of the Night
Victor Oladipo – ORL vs. CHA – $7,400 – Oladipo went off last night against a weak Denver team and put up 42 DKFP. Tonight he faces the Hornets, who are a lot better defending opposing shooting guards. If Payton sits he will see a higher usage, but I still only have him projected at 30 DKFP this evening.
Note: DKFP = DraftKings Fantasy Points