Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Cavaliers vs. Clippers- The highest total on the day is the day game at 208.5 with a spread of 2. The Cavaliers will ride on the back of King LeBron James tonight, as he looks to continue his 6 game streak of 40+ DKFP. The Clippers will look to use Chris Paul early and often, as his 27.5 usage rate could lead to another 50+ DKFP tonight.
LOW O/U – Pacers vs. Hawks- With a total of 197.5 and a spread of 4.5, this is the lowest total on the day. The Pacers are all about Paul George, as he is averaging about 22 real points a game. George has the ability to fill up a stat sheet, and I have him projected at 40+ DKFP tonight. The Hawks have been riding big men Paul Millsap and Al Horford lately. Both guys have a 20+ usage rate and should each hit value tonight.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Jazz vs. Kings – The projected pace of play in this game is 100. The Kings are one of the fastest paced teams this season, with a pace rating of 104.2. DeMarcus Cousins returns from suspension today and should look to crush, as I have him projected at 55 DKFP. The Jazz will have to hope their two bigs, Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, can hold strong, as they both try to reach their season averages of 30+ DraftKings Fantasy Points (DKFP) tonight.
LOW PACE – Knicks vs. Lakers- The projected pace of play in this game is 98.25. The Knicks use a lot of Carmelo Anthony, and he has a great matchup tonight. I have him projected at 40+ DKFP tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him log 40 minutes in a Kobe sendoff. For the Lakers, it will be all about Kobe (if he plays). Kobe put up 39 DKFP against LeBron last game and would probably like to do the same thing against Carmelo today.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Jose Calderon (NYK) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs and are giving up an average of 48 DKFP a game. Calderon is a role player for the Knicks, and he isn’t going to put up monster numbers with a 13.7 usage rate. Due to matchup and an average of 33 minutes per game (mpg), however, Calderon could be the sneaky catalyst your lineup needs to let you stack superstars on this short slate.
WORST – George Hill (IND) vs. Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks are ranked 5th this season against opposing PGs. Over the last 4 games, Hill has averaged 25 DKFP. I have Hill projected at his 25 DKFP average tonight, and he will have ample court time to get to this mark (33 mpg).
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Rodney Hood (UTA) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 29th against opposing shooting guards and are giving up 40 DKFP a game to the position. Hood has a usage rate of 22.9 and is seeing over 30 mpg. Hood put up a nice 25 DKFP performance last game after sitting out the game before due to a back injury. I have him projected at 30 DKFP tonight and feel like he could exceed this total given the pace and poor defense of the Kings.
WORST – Marco Belinelli (SAC) vs. Utah Jazz – The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs. Belinelli usually splits court time with Darren Collison and should only see about 25 minutes. With Hood back at full strength and DeMarcus Cousins returning from injury, Belinelli will see a usage drop, and I only have him projected at 15 DKFP tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. Los Angeles Lakers The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing small forwards and are giving up 40+ DKFP a game to the position. Carmelo is the king of usage, with a usage rate of 29.2. He should see about 40 minutes tonight, and I have him projected at 45+ DKFP. He is my favorite SF in this short slate (sorry LeBron).
WORST – Rudy Gay (SAC) vs. Utah Jazz- Everybody was on Gay last game with the DeMarcus Cousins suspension. Cousins is back today, and the Jazz are ranked 2nd against SFs. Gay is seeing over 35 mpg and has a usage rate of 19.7. I think he will come in slightly under value tonight at about 25 DKFP.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Derrick Favors (UTAH) vs. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are ranked 29th against power forwards this season. Favors put up a whopping 60 DKFP 4 games ago against New Orleans. He cooled off after that performance only averaging 30 DKFP a game. If there ever was a night to use Favors and his usage rate of 23, tonight may be the night. I have him projected at 35 DKFP tonight, but feel like he could easily get to 40 DKFP.
WORST – Luc Mbah a Moute (Questionable) (LAC) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavaliers are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Mbah a Moute has missed the past 5 games due to an eye injury. Coach Rivers says that Mbah a Moute could play today, but the matchup and an 11.3 usage rate has me completely off of him today.
TARGET – Robin Lopez (NYK) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing centers. Lopez has strung together 2 great DKFP games averaging 40 DKFP in both. Robin Lopez has been inconsistent at times this season. I will have some exposure due to matchup and price, but I am worried about the common theme of inconsistency playing true.
AVOID – DeAndre Jordan (LAC) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavaliers are ranked 1st against opposing centers. However, this doesn’t worry me about using DJ, as 13.5 rebounds a game almost guarantees a double-double. He will see over 35 minutes today, and I have him projected as the 2nd best center on the day.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Chris Paul ($10,600)- Paul has been en fuego over the last 3 games, averaging 53 DKFP. He is averaging over 35 mpg and has a usage rate of 27. In a nationally televised matchup with Cleveland, he will break out all the moves, and he definitely has the potential to put up yet another 50 burger.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jose Calderon ($4,100) – Calderon has a terrible usage rate of 13.7, but this play is based on matchup. The Lakers are 30th against opposing point guards, and Jose should see over 30 minutes tonight. If Arron Afflalo sits, Calderon could see a usage rate closer to 15. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight, and I think he makes a great value play.
Dud of the Night
Jeff Teague ($6,000) – Teague put up a nice 39 DKFP performance during his last game. He has been up in down this season due to his minute share with Dennis Schroder. While on the court, he has a phenomenal usage rate of 25. He needs about 30 DKFP to hit value tonight, and I don’t see him hitting this mark tonight against the tough Pacers defense.