Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Warriors vs. Trailblazers- The pace will be blazing and the total should be high in this West Coast battle. The o/u in this one is 214.5, the highest of the night. If Steph goes at full strength he should dominate. The same goes for Draymond Green. On the other side of the ball the scoring should come from Lillard and McCollum.
LOW O/U – Knicks vs. Spurs- The Spurs are 31-6 and look great this year. They are playing team defense and keeping scoring to a minimum. The total for this game is 194.5 and the only play I really like from this one is Kawhi.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Pacers vs. Pelicans- This game isn’t quite as fast as the Warriors, but it is up there. The projected game pace of this game is 99.7. This game will be a matchup of stars as The Brow faces down Paul George.
LOW PACE – Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves- The game pace of this one is 94.6. When Lebron plays the game slows down and it becomes Iso ball. I will actually be staying away from this game tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Mario Chalmers vs. Jameer Nelson- The Nuggets are ranked 28th against opposing PGs. Chalmers should get the start for an injured Mike Conley. He has a great chance to exceed value tonight.
AVOID – Brandon Knight vs. Goran Dragic – One thing has been certain over the course of this season, the Heat shut down PGs. Knight has seen an uptick in usage due to Eric Bledsoe being out. However, tonight the matchup should hold him to value, but not a whole lot more. I like cheaper options tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – DeMar DeRozan vs. Garrett Temple- SGs versus Washington are always in play. DeRozan is one of the “special” SGs that can fill up every stat category. Even with a little higher price his matchup is definitely cash game worthy.
AVOID – Arron Affalo vs. Danny Green – Affalo has found a decent role in New York. His matchup tonight does not bid well for success. The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs and will look to lock him down tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Danilo Gallinari vs. Jeff Green- Danilo has been a great example of a scorer at the right place at the right time. He has made the most of his opportunities and has a great matchup tonight. I could see him go for 35+.
AVOID – Carmelo Anthony vs. Kawhi Leonard Usually I am all over Melo, as he is a usage hog. However, check out the matchup. I am staying away tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Serge Ibaka vs. Larry Nance Jr. – Boogie took advantage of a matchup against the Lakers last night and exploited them. Tonight Serge gets the same type of matchup and should dominate. The only fear here is an impending blowout.
AVOID – Jon Leuer vs. Chris Bosh – After his health scare last year I never thought Bosh would come on as strong. Leuer has cooled off and gets the team that is second against opposing PFs. I like other options tonight.
TARGET – Nikola Vucevic vs. Brook Lopez Truth is, I like both of these guys tonight. Both will have opportunity and usage. They both also play limited defense. Look for both to hit and exceed value tonight.
AVOID – Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Timofey Mozgov – The Cavs are shutting down Cs nightly. KAT has had a great rookie year, but will have to work to hit value tonight. I like stacking the aforementioned Cs tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Anthony Davis ($10,600) – The Brow has become an over 50 DK point machine. He has a decent matchup tonight against the Pacers and should be able to put up 45+ DK points tonight. If we can all keep him from being injured he is a top tier fantasy producer every night.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Mario Chalmers ($4,600) – Chalmers will get the start for an injured Mike Conley tonight. During his last start he put up 52 DK points. I don’t expect the same output tonight, but I do expect him to exceed value. I think he will easily hit 30+ DK points based on usage alone.
Dud of the Night
Zach Randolph ($6,000) – With Matt Barnes returning from suspension Randolph saw his minutes drop. He will come of the bench tonight and should only see about 25 minutes. His matchup will be decent, but I still think he is priced to high.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Kris Humphries – Doubtful, Elfrid Payton – Doubtful, Mike Conley – Doubtful, Jerryd Bayless – Doubtful, Courtney Lee – Doubtful, Festus Ezeli – Doubtful