Game Flow Notes

Vegas Lines

HIGH O/U Warriors vs. Knicks – When the lights come on in Madison Square Garden the big name guys usually do work. Steph Curry has had some monster games in MSG even putting up 50 during a game. The total in this one is 216.5 and should stay relatively close with a 10 point spread. This one should be the battle of the stars as Melo and Curry try to produce a shootout.

LOW O/USuns vs. Mavericks – There is value to be had in this game, but the total is very surprising. With a 201.5 total this is the lowest total on the night. The Suns and Mavs are both very high paced, which makes the total interesting. The Mavs should see value with Parsons, Dirk, and Deron. The Suns will rely on their bigs Len and Morris, as well as Archie Goodwin. Goodwin is capable of putting up a 40 point game so he has a chance to exceed value tonight.

Pace of Play

Away TeamAway PaceHome TeamHome PaceAvg Pace
Golden State103.50New York97.80100.65

HIGH PACE Celtics vs. Magic – This is a little deja vu with a venue change. Earlier this week we had a fast paced Magic vs Celtics game. The projected game pace in this one is 99.6. This game should be dominated by the Magic bigs and you can find value in Aaron Gordon. On the Celtics side of the ball look for IT2 and Jae Crowder to target value tonight.

LOW PACEHawks vs. Heat – Hassan Whiteside is finally questionable, but who knows what he will try to do. This game will be post heavy and we should see a lot of Bosh/Wade for the Heat. The projected game pace in this one is 95.5. For the Hawks we will get the Millsap show and may even see a little more Horford.

Defense vs. Position

Point Guard Matchups

1BOS39.66 ORL1LAL50.03 CHA
2MIA41.89 ATL2PHX49.97 DAL
3LAC43.32 CHI3CHI47.58 LAC

TARGETDamian Lillard vs. Ricky Rubio – Lillard is the premier player for the Portland Trailblazers. He has also been a lock to put up 40+ DK points. He gets a nice matchup tonight against Rubio, who is 23rd against opposing PGs. I think he goes over 40 again tonight.

AVOIDElfrid Payton vs. Isaiah Thomas – We do have a price drop of $200 on Payton, but he still has a tough matchup. His last game against the Celtics he only put up 20 DK points. Going up against the 1st ranked team against opposing PGs is never easy and definitely won’t be easy tonight.

Shooting Guard Matchups

1CHI36.45 LAC1LAL42.64 CHA
2MIA36.57 ATL2PHX41.87 DAL
3NYK36.79 GSW3ATL40.05 MIA

TARGETDwyane Wade vs. Kyle Korver – Old man Wade has been on a complete tear lately. He has put up 3 games over 45+ DK points. He gets another positive matchup tonight and if Whiteside has to sit he will see his usage remain the same.

AVOIDDevin Booker vs. Wes Matthews – Booker has been a value making machine over the past 5 games. However, he gets a tough matchup tonight against the Iron Man. Matthews and the Mavs are ranked 9th against opposing PGs. He will have a lot of usage due to injuries, but I worry about value tonight.

Small Forward Matchups

1POR37.62 MIN1CHI42.48 LAC
2DAL38.31 PHX2PHX42.44 DAL
3MIA38.83 ATL3LAL42.09 CHA

TARGET Chandler Parsons vs. PJ Tucker- Parsons has found his touch and has been hamming it up lately. The Suns are ranked 28th against opposing SFs. I love where Parsons comes in at tonight.

AVOIDShabazz Muhammad vs. Al Farouq-Aminu- Aminu is a great defender and is ranked top 5 against opposing SFs. Muhammad has finally started producing, but he should have a tough time tonight. I have him projected at 20 FPs tonight.

Power Forward Matchups

1MIA42.59 ATL1DAL48.78 PHX
2NYK42.81 GSW2BOS48.71 ORL
3MIN44.16 POR3CHA48.16 LAL

TARGETPaul Millsap vs. Chris Bosh – I like both of these guys tonight and have them projected as the top PF plays. Millsap will have high usage and Bosh will see more usage if Whiteside sits. They both are decent defenders, but this one is all about their offensive ability.

AVOIDMarvin Williams vs. Julius Randle – Williams has been cold lately and the stretch 4 days in Charlotte look to be ending with MKG back. Randle surprisingly has the better part of this matchup and should put up more DK points. I just think there are better PF options tonight.

Center Matchups

RankBest DvCFPPGAOppRankBest DvCFPPGAOpp
1MIA45.52 ATL1LAL51.46 CHA
2PHX46.76 DAL2ATL50.36 MIA
3ORL46.85 BOS3CHI49.95 LAC

TARGETKarl Anthony Towns vs. Mason Plumlee –We are going to change his name to Karl Ham. He has been unbelievable over the past week and gets another plus matchup tonight. I don’t have him projected at 50, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 35+ DK points tonight.

AVOID Tyson Chandler vs. Zaza Pachulia- Two of the top Center defenders in the league face off tonight. I am honestly staying away from both guys. I just think there are better options and I don’t see either guy exceeding value. I like the smaller guys in this one.

Lineup Quick Hits

Superstar Worth Paying For

Stephen Curry (10,700) – Last year the Chef put up 50+ DK points against the Knicks. He has also put up 50 real points in MSG. He (like myself) is so amped about the Panthers making the Super Bowl there is no telling how many DK points he is capable of tonight.

Save Big Bucks by Drafting

Zach Lavine (5,200) – Lavine is starting to see over 30 minutes a game. This is great fantasy news as more minutes means more production. For his price I think we see 25+ DK points in a great matchup.

Dud of the Night

Kristaps Porzingis (7,100) – The rookie will get a taste of Draymond tonight and that shouldn’t bid well for his production. He is coming off of being sick so already makes me a little uneasy. I just think the price is too high for potential production tonight.

Out/Doubtful Tonight

Chris Andersen – Out, Festus Ezeli – Doubtful, Kevin Martin – Doubtful, Kevin Garnett – Doubtful, Nicolas Batum – Out, Cody Zeller – Doubtful-