Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Kings vs. Pelicans – Boogie finally had a let down during his last outing. This was probably due to exhaustion from a back to back overtime game. He has had a day to rest and gets a monster total tonight of 216.5. The Brow is doubtful in this one, which means the Boogie’s stock goes up even more. I also like Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson as decent value plays.
LOW O/U – Bucks vs. Grizzlies – I wish I could figure out what the Grizzlies were actually trying to do this year. They have gone away from their slow bang the post play and transformed into small ball team. Unfortunately, this hasn’t developed into more points. The total for this game is 195 and I can only see myself having some stock of the Centers in this game.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Hawks vs. Pacers – This Hawks team is completely different from the one that ran off a winning streak last year. Jeff Teague is on the trade block and they just can’t seem to find a lineup that works. On the other side of the ball, Paul George is in desperate need of the All-Star break and some rest. With a projected game pace of 100.9 this game is one of the fastest on the night, but you will have to dig deep for some good value.
LOW PACE – Knicks vs. Raptors – With a projected game pace of 94, this is one of the slower games on the night. This one boils down to injuries as two of the main stars are questionable, Melo and Lowry. If either guy sits you will need to reevaluate who takes their place in the lineup.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – John Wall vs. Emmanuel Mudiay – John Wall has a VMO strain, but will still play (take notes Brow.) Wall hasn’t hit value in the last 4 games, but has a great matchup tonight. The Nuggets can’t guard me, so they should be the catalyst to help get Wall back on track.
AVOID – Jeff Teague vs. George Hill – Teague has found himself on the trading block and rightfully so. The Hawks guard has been less than stellar this year and will have another tough matchup tonight. In the last 13 outings he has only posted value one. I just don’t see the upswing happening tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Jimmy Butler vs. Lou Williams – Buckets has been on an up and down curve lately. He will have a monster game and then cool down. Luckily with Mirotic sidelined tonight it is looking in his favor. I think he goes for 40+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – Terrence Ross vs. Arron Affalo – A-A-A-ron is a great defender and has been since he entered the league. Ross has been alternating starts with James Johnson, but has had some success. Tonight I just think there are better options at the position and I am staying away.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Paul George vs. Kent Bazemore- Paul George admitted that he was a little burned out, although he didn’t show it during his 51 point DK performance during his last outing. George is projected well over 40 again tonight and should easily be able to replicate his output.
AVOID – Jared Dudley vs. Danilo Gallinari- Danilo is a great defender and is presently ranked 16th against opposing SFs. Dudley has moved back to a bench role as Nene has returned. I have him projected at 18 DK points tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – DeMarcus Cousins vs. Ryan Anderson – With Anthony Davis doubtful this matchup becomes even juicier. Boogie had a rough outing last game, but should right the ship tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 50 burger in this one.
AVOID – Luis Scola vs. Kristaps Porzingis – Toronto can’t seem to figure out what they want to do with the PF spot. Scola and Patty P have been basically splitting time, but neither is producing. Scola has been well under value the last couple of games and gets a matchup against the rookie who has been decent tonight.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Pau Gasol vs. Roy Hibbert – I really hope that Kobe gets to play tonight as this will make a great matchup against pals. The Lakers are 28th against opposing Cs and Pau’s usage should go up even more with Mirotic out. I am looking for 40+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – New Orleans Centers vs. Willie Cauley-Stein- Yes the matchup is great, yes the Brow is up, yes you would be crazy to play either Asik or Anjica tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,200) – So he let us down the last outing, but tonight’s the night to make up for it. Based on usage and matchup if he wanted to post 100+ DK points tonight I think he could.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Bobby Portis ($3,500) – With Mirotic out this should give Portis more opportunity. If Portis can get over 20 mins tonight he should easily hit value. He may be a very popular play, but may be necessary to help take down a GPP.
Dud of the Night
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,800) – On a short slate Mudiay is one of those guys that would usually be in play. However, he should be out of his element against John Wall and company tonight. I just think there are better options (check out New Orleans)
Rudy Gay – Out, Carmelo Anthony – Out, OJ Mayo – Out, Anthony Davis – Doubtful –