Game Flow Notes

Vegas Lines

HIGH O/UCeltics vs. Wizards- At this time (10:30 AM) the highest scoring on the night is 212.5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hornets or Pelican’s game go higher. This one will be guard dominated as two of the hottest guards in the league go at it. Wall has come in under value, but will be needed in full force tonight. IT2 has been on fire and should also produce tonight. If you are looking for big men value check out Amir and Nene who have both been silently good over the last couple games.

LOW O/UMagic vs. Grizzlies- With an o/u of 191 this is the lowest total of the night. The Grizzlies have consistently been one of the lower scoring teams on the season. I want to go after both C’s in this one, but I am just a little never about Marc Gasol’s inconsistency this season. I do like Tobias Harris as he gets a great matchup and has produced value in 3 of the last 4.

Pace of Play

Away TeamAway PaceHome TeamHome PaceAvg Pace
Houston101.20New Orleans99.80100.50
San Antonio96.60Golden State103.60100.10

HIGH PACE Hornets vs. Kings- This game has the 2nd highest pace on the night at 101.9. I am really interested to see the total in this one as it could go higher than the Wiz game. I love Boogie in this one as the Hornets are depleted at the Post. I also love Rondo and Kemba as both have a great matchup (against each other). I have them projected as the 3 and 4th PGs on the night respectively.

LOW PACEPistons vs. Jazz- Andddddddd…..there they are, the Jazz have found themselves at the bottom again. The projected game pace in this one is 93.4 and the slowest on the night. The Centers in this one are projected at 35+ DK points. I am extremely excited about the matchup between Drummond and Gobert. I am also interested to see how Reggie Jackson does in this one as he has been frustrated with his play (and the teams play) in Detroit.

Defense vs. Position

Point Guard Matchups

1BOS39.74 WAS1DEN48.04 ATL
2MIA42.16 CHI2CHI47.92 MIA
3SAS42.28 GSW3SAC47.03 CHA

TARGETStephen Curry vs. Tony Parker- Curry should be extremely hyped that “our” team, the Carolina Panthers have made it to the Super Bowl. After coming off of a 79 DK point game, this is a statement game for Curry in what could be the precursor to the Western Conference Finals. I have Curry at 45+ DK points tonight and wouldn’t be surprised to see him go over.

AVOID Jeff Teague vs. Emmanuel Mudiay- This matchup is phenomenal, but unfortunately Teague’s minutes have give way to the younger guard Dennis Schroder. If Teague gets over 25 minutes he may hit value, but he shouldn’t help you take down a GPP. His last two outings have been way under value.

Shooting Guard Matchups

1SAS32.36 GSW1SAC42.64 CHA
2UTA35.84 DET2WAS41.80 BOS
3CHI36.21 MIA3DEN41.01 ATL

TARGETJames Harden vs Tyreke Evans- It baffles me why Jrue Holiday isn’t starting in New Orleans, but that is another story. I told you to play the Beard yesterday and he produced a trip-dub. Ride the hot hand again tonight as he gets another favorable matchup.

AVOIDKlay Thompson vs. Danny Green Klay Thompson has always been a one trick pony and his fantasy scoring depends on baskets. Green and the Spurs are ranked 1st against SGs and will look to prevent one Splash Brother from scoring tonight.

Small Forward Matchups

1SAS33.73 GSW1HOU45.22 NOP
2DET33.89 UTA2WAS43.51 BOS
3CLE34.82 MIN3CHI42.95 MIA

TARGET Jae Crowder vs. Otto Porter- The King should be the highest producing SF on the night. However, this matchup looks good on both sides. Crowder put up 30 DK points yesterday after being labeled as questionable. Both Crowder and Porter should have a chance to put up at least 30 DK points tonight.

AVOID Harrison Barnes vs. Kawhi Leonard- Don’t play a player versus Kawhi. This is a common fact and will continue to be until Kawhi gets a DNP-Old. Barnes is projected under 25 DK points tonight and will have all he can handle.

Power Forward Matchups

1SAS40.88 GSW1HOU51.40 NOP
2WAS42.64 BOS2SAC51.11 CHA
3UTA42.94 DET3BOS48.70 WAS

TARGET Anthony Davis vs. Terrence Jones/Josh Smith- Davis gets a great matchup tonight against the Rockets tonight. He is projected at over 50 DK points and barring any injury should have an easy time reaching that total.

AVOID Tristan Thompson vs. Nemanja Bjelica- Both of these guys come off the bench, but usually can provide some decent value. With the coaching change in Cleveland, Tristan’s value has gone down a little. Unless this turns into a blowout I have him at less than 25 DK points tonight.

Center Matchups

RankBest DvCFPPGAOppRankWorst DvCFPPGAOpp
1UTA41.22 DET1NOP53.03 HOU
2CLE42.53 MIN2DEN51.58 ATL
3MEM43.21 ORL3CHI50.24 MIA

TARGETPau Gasol vs. Hassan Whiteside Whiteside is questionable tonight. Pau put up a 50 burger against the Cavs last game. This game comes down to the post and Pau should see a lot of action tonight.

AVOID Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Timofey Mozgov- The Rookie has been great this season and actually put up a 60 DK point game two games ago. The Cavs are ranked 2nd against opposing Cs and will look to hammer the rook tonight.

Lineup Quick Hits

Superstar Worth Paying For

DeMarcus Cousins ($11,000)- Boogie is projected over 50 tonight. Boogie hasn’t let us down yet. I play the Boogie!

Save Big Bucks by Drafting

Spencer Hawes ($4,100) – Hawes has produced value in his last two starts. His price has gone up, but his value has stayed. I think he is worth his cost again tonight.

Dud of the Night

Andrew Wiggins ($6,700) – Wiggins gets to face the King tonight. He came in under value last game and is projected slightly under again tonight.


This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day

Kirk Hinrich – Out, Kevin Garnett – Doubtful, Tim Duncan – Out, Jameer Nelson – Doubtful, Derrick Favors – Doubtful