WATCH: 3 IN THE KEY – BLAKE GRIFFIN
We’ve got a monster 12-game slate on Wednesday night, so there are a ton of matchups to breakdown. I’ll provide you with the best and worst matchup at each position, along with some bonus picks given the size of the slate. Remember to use the DK Live app to monitor all the injury and lineup news leading up to lock. Hit me up on Twitter with comments or questions: @julianedlow.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – John Wall ($10,700) vs. Brooklyn Nets – Wall is an easy choice for me tonight, which is rare on such a large slate. He’s the most expensive PG, but he’s surpassed 53 DKFP in three of his last five games, and he’s got a matchup with the Nets — who rank last in the NBA in fantasy points allowed to PGs, giving up over 61 DKFP to the position on average. Isaiah Thomas ($10,100) could be looking for some revenge in his homecoming in Sacramento, while Stephen Curry ($10,000) will also try and stay red-hot hosting the Bulls.
WORST – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,200) vs. Miami Heat – Giannis is a matchup nightmare for any opponent, but Miami does rank second in the NBA over the last 10 games, allowing just 48.8 DKFP to PGs. The Greek Freak failed to reach value in eight consecutive games before coming up big against the Suns on Saturday. Given the other options, I don’t think Giannis is the best choice in his price range. Jrue Holiday ($8,000) against the Jazz and Eric Bledsoe ($7,500) against the Grizzlies also both have tough draws tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Bradley Beal ($7,100) vs. Brooklyn Nets – The numbers are the numbers, and both Wall and Beal have the strongest backcourt matchups on the slate. Brooklyn ranks 29th vs. SGs, while Beal has exceeded value in four of his last five games. That includes 62.25 DKFP in his last game, which did bump his salary $300. I don’t mind pairing the Washington backcourt. Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700) and Marcus Smart ($5,600) are also both affordable with favorable matchups.
WORST – Devin Booker ($6,500) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – If you look at Booker’s game log, he’s been good for a consistent 33 DKFP recently. However, he finally had a bad game on Monday (27 DKFP), and has a difficult matchup tonight. The Grizzlies rank eighth against SGs, and have been extremely consistent all season. Lou Williams ($5,500), Tyreke Evans ($4,300 – if he plays) and any combo of Nets’ SGs are all in difficult spots tonight as well.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Carmelo Anthony ($7,300) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – The Clippers are a totally different team right now than their season ranks. Allowing over 52 DKFP to SFs on average over the past five games, ‘Melo should be able to take advantage of an opponent on the decline. Wilson Chandler ($6,600) and Otto Porter ($6,300) also have strong matchups.
WORST – Robert Covington ($5,200) vs. San Antonio Spurs – Covington returned from a hand injury on Monday, but posted just 24 DKFP in 29 minutes against the Pistons. Tonight’s matchup against Kawhi and the Spurs doesn’t make things any easier on him — SAS ranks second in the NBA against SFs. T.J. Warren ($4,900), P.J. Tucker ($4,400) and Solomon Hill ($3,600) also face top-3 SF matchups.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Blake Griffin ($9,300) vs. New York Knicks – Blake’s salary is up $1,700 since his return from injury, but he still seems a little underpriced to me having scored 50+ DKFP in three of his last four games. The Knicks are allowing over 56 DKFP on average to PFs in the last five games, so Griffin will look to keep carrying the load offensively for the Chris Paul-less Clippers. Kevin Love ($8,500), Markieff Morris ($6,600) and Tobias Harris ($5,500) also have great matchups.
WORST – Kristaps Porzingis ($6,800) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – One thing the Clippers do have going for them is a much stronger interior defense with both Griffin and Jordan healthy. The Clips rank sixth in the NBA vs. PFs this season, while Porzingis has only reached value once in his last 10 games. His recent struggles suggest he’s not even close to worth his salary. Ersan Ilyasova ($5,500) and Terrence Jones ($5,100) also appear to be in poor situations.
BEST – Spurs Bigs vs. Philadelphia 76ers – We’ve got to figure out exactly where the minutes are going here, but Philly’s been allowing nearly 70 DKFP to centers over the past five games. David Lee ($5,500) and Dwayne Dedmon ($3,800) should be the top options, and both exceeded 30 DKFP against the 76ers last week. Given Dedmon’s price, he could be one of the top values of the night. Andre Drummond ($8,600) and Marc Gasol ($7,600) also figure to have matchups to exploit.
WORST – Tyson Chandler ($4,900) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis ranks atop the league against opposing centers, and limited Chandler to just 13 DKFP in their last meeting. Needless to say, there are far better options on this slate. Nikola Jokic ($8,700) and the Philly big men are also potential fades.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
John Wall ($10,700) – Wall is my top stud on this slate given his matchup, highlighted above. However, you could also make the case for a discounted Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800) or Kevin Durant ($9,700) to be tonight’s top option.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jaylen Brown ($3,600) – I mentioned that Marcus Smart has a good matchup at SG against the Kings above, but Brown will remain the starter with Avery Bradley out. Brown’s shown plenty of flashes, and could be due for a big game considering his matchup along with the blowout potential since DeMarcus Cousins will be serving a one-game suspension. Brown is averaging 26.7 minutes over his last three, so he should get solid run.
Next Man Up
Any Healthy King – Forget that Rudy Gay, Omri Casspi and Garrett Temple are all out, the Kings will be Boogie-less tonight … and that’s a huge problem. Matt Barnes ($5,800), Darren Collison ($5,300), Ty Lawson ($4,700), Anthony Tolliver ($4,000), Kosta Koufos ($3,600) and Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,500) are all potential value plays, as they will also likely see big minutes.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.