Game Flow Notes

Vegas Lines

HIGH O/UWarriors vs. Wizards – I don’t like the 10 point spread, but I love the 225 total. This will be a high paced game that should provide us with a lot of scoring. Curry put up an uncharacteristically bad outing, during his last game with only 26 DK points. He has honestly been in a small slump, which he will be trying to get out of quickly. I love all 3 of the main guys for the Warriors and will have some exposure to Wall for this Wiz tonight.

LOW O/UNuggets vs. Jazz – There’s old faithful, the Jazz are back at it again tonight, which means that they will come in with the lowest total at 195 tonight. Hayward had a monster game last game and put up 50 DK points. The two Jazz bigs have a great matchup tonight and both are in play. I don’t really like anybody from the Nuggets as the Jazz have been top ranked defensively against opposing teams.

Pace of Play

Away TeamAway PaceHome TeamHome PaceAvg Pace
Golden State103.40Washington100.70102.05
Orlando98.60Oklahoma City100.9099.75
New Orleans99.70San Antonio96.8098.25

HIGH PACEBulls vs. Kings – This game is the 2nd fastest on the night coming in just under the Warriors. With a 102.8 projected game pace, this one will be pushed by the Kings. A lot of this game comes down to the status of DeMarcus Cousins. If Boogie plays he will be one of the best plays on the night. On the Bulls, I love the matchups that Pau and Butler have tonight. Both have a great shot to exceed value.

LOW PACEHeat vs. Mavericks – The Heat have been one of the slower pace teams in the league. With a projected game pace of 93.2, this one should once again be post dominated. I love where Bosh comes in at, with a great matchup. I also like Zaza in a game that may see Whiteside sit again. Monitor this game for injuries, to make sure who starts in the post (Stoudemire).

Defense vs. Position

Point Guard Matchups

1BOS39.72 DET1BKN48.05 IND
2MIA41.76 DAL2SAC47.73 CHI
3SAS44.00 NOP3DEN47.54 UTA

TARGETChris Paul vs. Ricky Rubio – CP3 has been on extreme usage alert with Blake Griffin out for a while. He is projected as the 3rd ranked PG on the night and has a chance to exceed value. The Wolves are ranked 23rd against opposing PGs.

AVOIDDeron Williams vs. Goran Dragic – Williams is questionable tonight with a hip contusion. If he sits we should see J.J. Barea. However, I don’t like either guy in this matchup as the Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. I think the Dallas starter will come in slightly under their value tonight.

Shooting Guard Matchups

1SAS32.70 NOP1SAC42.57 CHI
2UTA35.47 DEN2WAS42.26 GSW
3MIA36.96 DAL3DEN41.85 UTA

TARGETJimmy Butler vs. Marco Belinelli – Buckets should crush tonight. The Kings haven’t been able to guard a SG all season. Butler will have a high usage rate and is the star in Chicago. I will have a lot of exposure to Buckets tonight.

AVOIDWayne Ellington vs. Monta Ellis – Ellington is one of those guys that scoring relies on the amount of actual points he scores. His price is enticing and the matchup is there, but I just can’t see him exceeding value.


Small Forward Matchups

1SAS34.48 NOP1WAS43.40 GSW
2DET34.77 BOS2PHI43.34 ATL
3CLE35.51 CHA3CHI42.54 SAC

TARGET LeBron James vs. PJ Hairston- LBJ in Charlotte with Michael Jordan’s watchful eyes. I’ll take that every time it happens.

AVOIDJae Crowder vs. Marcus Miller- Crowder has had some decent games, but has struggled lately. This is partially due to some sickness, but also due to the return of Marcus Smart. Miller will give Crowder all he can handle tonight and should limit his production.

Power Forward Matchups

1SAS41.84 NOP1SAC50.79 CHI
2OKC41.95 ORL2PHI49.48 ATL
3UTA42.42 DEN3DAL48.63 MIA

TARGETPaul Millsap vs. Nerlens Noel – The 76ers are 28th against opposing PFs. Millsap has been great this season and has consistently put up big numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went for over 45+ DK points tonight.

AVOIDKenneth Faried vs. Derrick Favors – The Manimal has been struggling lately and really hasn’t posted value in the last couple. Favors is an excellent defender and is actually ranked 2nd in the league. He will look to shut the manimal down tonight.

Center Matchups

RankBest DvCFPPGAOppRankWorst DvCFPPGAOpp
1UTA41.52 DEN1PHI53.90 ATL
2CLE42.86 CHA2NOP53.14 SAS
3SAS44.38 NOP3DEN51.05 UTA

TARGETPau Gasol vs. Willie Cauley-Stein – The Kings are terrible against Cs as well. Gasol should beast the Kings tonight and possibly even exceed value a lot.

AVOID Andrew Bogut vs. Marcin Gortat- Gortat is the Polish Hammer and will lay down the hammer tonight. Bogut is projected at less than 20 tonight and should be one of the less owned Cs.

Lineup Quick Hits

Superstar Worth Paying For

Russell Westbrook ($11,000) – Westy has been a value machine lately. He is projected at about 60 DK points tonight. In a high pace game and a great matchup he should easily hit value.

Save Big Bucks by Drafting

Jordan Hill ($5,500) – Hill isn’t as low priced as I would like, but he comes in at great spot. Ian Mahinmi is out and Hill should get the start. During his last start he easily exceeded value.

Dud of the Night

Ryan Anderson ($6,400) – Anthony Davis is back which means that Anderson’s value goes down. He also will be facing the Spurs, which will cause him even more headache. He just isn’t a sound play tonight.

Out/Doubtful Tonight

Ian Mahinmi – Out, Tiago Splitter – Out, Kemba Walker – Out, Deron Williams – Out-