Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Trailblazers vs. Kings- With only 4 games on the slate tonight this game has the highest total of 208. This game should be a win for the Kings and has the potential to be a field day for DeMarcus Cousins. I love Boogie in this one! I also will be rolling out both Trailblazer guards if Lillard plays.
LOW O/U – Lakers vs. Grizzlies- The lowest total on the night is at 196. This shouldn’t surprise anyone that the game involves the Grizzlies. Kobe will probably chunk up 400 shots and will probably hit value. I love the matchups that Conley and Gasol have and will definitely be rolling them out in cash games.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Knicks vs. Celtics- The projected game pace in this one is 99.5. The Celtics have played at a fast pace all year long and will look to push the pace tonight. This has the makings of the Carmelo show for the Knicks and will be an IT2 game for the Celtics.
LOW PACE – Nuggets vs. Thunder- Surprisingly this game is one of the slower pace games on the night. With a projected game pace of 98.4 this one is only slightly faster pace than the Griz game. Nevertheless, I will have shares of Westy and KD. For the Nuggets, Barton has a fantastic matchup and has a great chance to exceed value.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Mike Conley vs. Lakers Starter- Scott said that he may tweak the Lakers starting line after Christmas. It doesn’t matter what tweak he does the Lakers will still be terrible against PGs. This makes Conley a great play tonight!
AVOID – Jose Calderon vs. Isaiah Thomas – IT2 has been shut down and is ranked in the top 5 against opposing PGs. Calderon has had some decent outings, but he has his hands full tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – CJ McCollum vs. Darren Collison/Marco Belinelli- McCollum has a great matchup tonight against the Kings. He has been carrying the offensive load for the Trailblazers and should continue this trend tonight.
AVOID – Andre Roberson vs. Will Barton- Just like every other player not named Westbrook or Durant on the Thunder, Roberson has a tough matchup tonight. I am staying away from this matchup tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kevin Durant vs. Kostas Popanikolaou- With Danillo sidelined, KD gets a matchup against Pop in the box! KD will dominate this matchup and has the opportunity to exceed value tonight.
AVOID – Rudy Gay vs. Al Farouq-Aminu- Aminu is a great defender. Gay’s usage should be down due to the massive matchup Cousins has. I think that we will see more Rondo and Cousins tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – DeMarcus Cousins vs. Meyers Leonard- This one is simple. Cousins should see some of Leonard and some of Plumlee. It won’t matter, Boogie should dominate.
AVOID – Kenneth Faried vs. Serge Ibaka- Serge has played some good defense this season. The Manimal is basically the only post presence the Nuggets have. He may reach value, but I don’t expect a lot more.
TARGET – Marc Gasol vs. Roy Hibbert- Gasol had a slow start last night against the Hornets. He will look to remedy that tonight as he gets a great matchup against the Lakers. Gasol is easily the top C on the night.
AVOID – Nikola Jokic vs. Steven Adams- Adams has played great defense this season. Jokic has gotten most of the minutes at C for the Nuggets, but will have a tough matchup tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins (9,900) – I could easily put Westy in this spot, but I like Boogie’s matchup a lot better. Boogie gets the week front court of the Trailblazers and will dominate Mason Plumlee. I have him projected at 55+ DK points tonight. I also like his price coming in at right under 10k.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Meyers Leonard (3,700) – Leonard has had two nice outings over the last two games. On a short slate his price makes him come in at a great value play. I have him projected at 22 DK points tonight in a great matchup.
Dud of the Night
Kenneth Faried (6,500) – Once again the Manimal comes in as the Dud of the Night. With about 6 guys less than his 6.5K projected higher, the Manimal probably won’t be worth the price tonight. His matchup against Serge Ibaka doesn’t bid well for his production either.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Damian Lillard – Doubtful, Danillo Gallinari -Out