Game Flow Notes

Vegas Lines

HIGH O/UCavaliers vs. Warriors – Merry Christmas Day, here comes the rematch! For NBA players it has become an honor to suit up on Christmas day and the superstars take it very serious. The total in this game is 212 and I feel like this will be the best game on the day. I look for the Superstars to shine, Curry and LBJ! I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a secondary player produce some major fantasy points, see Iggy as Finals MVP.

LOW O/UPelicans vs. Heat – This game is one of the outliers, but does have some star power. With a total of 200 it is the lowest scoring on the day. 200 points is still a lot in my mind and I will be looking to this game for value. I think the GPP winner will include a Wade, Bosh, Whiteside, or Tyreke Evans.

MORE NBA CONTENT FOR A HUGE CHRISTMAS DAY SLATE:
NBA Targets
NBA Tournament Plays


Pace of Play

NBA Cheat Sheet 12.25 Pace

HIGH PACEBulls vs. Thunder – This game comes in as the 3rd highest total at 206, but the fastest pace on the day at 99.8. This game will also be another great one and should provide us with a lot of Westy fantasy points. I am interested to see who gets to guard KD, as the Bulls have sometimes rotated Buckets on him. Some of you may be angry about this, but I could see this game as the precursor to the Finals.

LOW PACESpurs vs. Rockets – The Spurs have been playing great defense and have since slowed down their pace. I was looking forward to this game when I saw it on the Schedule in October, but now it is just sort of blah (thanks Rockets)! With a projected game pace of 97.9, the Spurs will look to maintain the pace and shut the Beard down. I want to love LMA due to his matchup but I worry about getting Pop’ed even on Christmas Day.


Defense vs. Position

NBA Cheat Sheet 12.25 DvP

Point Guard Matchups

TARGET Chris Paul vs. D’Angelo Russell – CP3 and the Clippers need to get a big win to spark a season turnaround. This year hasn’t technically gone how the Clips would like. Everybody in this game gets a home game and CP3 will look to demolish the Lakers. It doesn’t hurt that the Lakers are terrible against opposing PGs.

AVOID Jrue Holiday vs. Goran Dragic – Dragic is questionable tomorrow, but I feel like he will suit up. Holiday will get the toughest PG matchup on the day and like usuall I feel like this game will go through the post. I like the Brow and Whiteside a lot better.


Shooting Guard Matchups

TARGET Dwyane Wade vs. Tyreke Evans – The Pelicans are ranked 24th against opposing PGs. It is Christmas Day and D Wade will want to show off. I have him projected a 32+ DK points and wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeds that total.

AVOID James Harden vs. Danny Green – The Spurs are basically ranked 1st in about every defensive category now. They have shut down opposing SGs and will look to continue the trend against James Harden. I feel like Harden will have to struggle to reach value and think there are better options on the day.


Small Forward Matchups

TARGETKawhi Leonard vs. Trevor Ariza – I absolutely love Kawhi Leonard and honestly feel like he is the best true SF in the league (sorry LBJ and KD). Kawhi gets a great matchup and will have an extremely high usuage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 45+ DK points from Kawhi tomorrow.

AVOIDNikola Mirotic vs. Kevin Durant – Mirotic got the start at SF last game. This actually made the Bulls look a lot better and Hoiberg should look to continue this line. KD has been pretty good defensively this year and will look to lock the sophomore down. I definitely think you have to pay up for SFs tomorrow.


Power Forward Matchups

TARGET Blake Griffin vs. Larry Nance Jr.- I honestly feel like I don’t need to go into detail about this matchup. The Lakers are 30th against opposing PFs. Oh by the way…who is Larry Nance Jr.?

AVOID Draymond Green vs. Kevin Love – The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. However, I do think the Draymond has a great chance at hitting value in this matchup. I just worry that he won’t be able to exceed value like a Blake or AD.


Center Matchups

TARGETHassan Whiteside vs. Alexis Anjica – I love where Whiteside comes in at on Christmas Day. He has a great matchup and will be used in the post all game. The Pelicans have given up huge games to Cs like Mason Plumlee, this means that Whiteside should be able to crush.

AVOIDDwight Howard vs. Tim Duncan – Old man Tim will be at it again as he tries to shut down Dwight. The Spurs are great against big men and I truly feel that Tim will give him all he can handle tonight.


Lineup Quick Hits

Superstar Worth Paying For

Russell Westbrook ($10,400) – Westy on Christmas Day, sign me up! I have him projected at 55+ DK points and have a feeling that he is going to go off. Westy has the potential to hit value everytime he hits the court and is one of those players that could put up 70-80 DK points.

Save Big Bucks by Drafting

Taj Gibson ($4,400) – It’s hard to dig out some value on a day that includes all of the superstars. However, with Noah sidelined Gibson should get a lot of run. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Taj exceed value on Christmas Day.

Dud of the Night

Kyrie Irving ($6,600) – Usually I would be all over Kyrie on Christmas Day. Unfortunately, he is on a minutes restriction and should only see about 20 minutes tomorrow. I would be very surprised to see him exceed 25 DK points tomorrow.

Doubtful/Out

This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day

Joakim Noah – Out