Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – GAME – Lakers vs. Rockets- The total in this game is 212.5 with a spread of 14. I think this will get out of hand, but it should stay close until the 4th quarter. The Rockets are in must win territory to have a playoff shot. The Lakers will rely on Julius Randle’s 33 mpg and usage rate of 21% to produce some nice DKFP. The Rockets will once again be all about the Beard, James Harden. Harden has a usage rate of 33% and is playing 40+ mpg. He will score and score at will tonight, get him in your lineup.
LOW O/U – GAME – Jazz vs. Nuggets- The total in this game is 192, with a spread of 6. The Jazz are also in must win territory as they hope to solidify a spot in the playoffs. Derrick Favors seems to have finally bounced back from injury with a 36 DKFP performance last game. He has a better matchup tonight and should see a similar result. The Nuggets are a young team looking to next year. Nikola Jokic has been one of the bright spots and should see a usage rate of 20% tonight and over 30 DKFP.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – GAME – Hornets vs. Wizards – My Hornets have played to the pace of the other team all season. The projected game pace in this one is 100.1. Kemba Walker is working his way into playoff shape with a 29% usage rate. He has put up 40+ in back to back games and should do the same again today. The Wizards may or may not have John Wall for this one. If Wall plays, he will have a usage rate of 28% and should see 40+ DKFP. If he sits out, get Ramon Sessions in your lineup as he will make for a great value play.
LOW PACE – GAME – Raptors vs. Knicks- This is the slowest paced game of the night with a pace of 93.1%. The Raptors are locked into the playoffs and could potentially rest their starters tonight. If they play everybody, look for Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan to play with an unspoken minutes cap. I still think they make for good cash plays as they should see 30+ DKFP. The Knicks are in shutdown mode and will parade Carmelo Anthony out to make the fans happy. Melo should be able to post 30 DKFP due to a 30% usage, but I don’t think he should be considered this afternoon.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Patrick Beverley (HOU) vs. Los Angeles Lakers-The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. Beverley usually does well in great matchups and seems to be under priced at 4,900. I will not be playing him in cash games with a 15% usage rate, but I will have some GPP exposure.
WORST – Elfrid Payton (ORL) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Payton has posted back to back 30+ DKFP performances. He has a usage rate of 20% and should see over 30 minutes tonight. I think he comes in right at value on the evening.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – James Harden (HOU) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing SGs. Harden knows the Rockets must win and will need all of his high usage rate to guarantee this tonight. I think we easily see a 50 burger from Harden tonight.
WORST – Klay Thompson (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. It’s the same scenario last night as the Warriors have to win to stay on track for greatness. Thompson has struggled against San Antonio all season and the trend should continue tonight. I think we see about 30 DKFP from Thompson on the evening.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Kobe Bryant (SG) (LAL) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing SFs. Bryant is playing the last few games of his career, and he would love to knock the Rockets out of the playoffs. He has put up value in the last two games and has a 32% usage rate. I think we will see 30+ DKFP out of Bryant on the evening.
WORST – Harrison Barnes (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Barnes has a usage rate of 14% and has really been hidden by the big 3 in Golden State. He had a nice performance against the Spurs last game, but I don’t see him replicating that. I think he comes in at 20 DKFP tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Julius Randle (LAL) vs. Houston Rockets – The Rockets are ranked 29th against opposing PFs. Like I said above, Randle is a great play tonight. I love his $5,900 price and his 21% usage rate. I think he easily goes for 30+ DKFP on the evening.
WORST – Draymond Green (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs The Spurs are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs. Green is basically matchup proof and even though he has a 15% usage rate he has the ability to fill a stat line. He had 51 DKFP last night and wants this win bad today. I think he goes for 40+ DKFP on the evening, despite a tough matchup.
BEST – Greg Monroe (MIL) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. Monroe is only averaging 24 mpg with a usage rate of 21%. If he was getting more burn for the Bucks, I would love this matchup, but the uncertainty of Jason Kidd has caused his stock to drop. I think he comes in at 30 DKFP this evening.
WORST – Andrew Bogut (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 2nd against opposing Cs. Bogut set last night, but should play tonight. He had a nice game against the Spurs last time out, so he is in play for tournaments. However, an 11% usage rate and 20 mpg isn’t very exciting.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden (10,800)- This is the Beard’s night tonight. A must win game and playing the terrible Lakers, I would guarantee you a 100 DKFP, but you know I can’t do that. However, 50 DKFP is not totally out of the question.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jusuf Nurkic (4,000) –Nurkic has been getting a lot of burn for the Nuggets lately, seeing over 25 mpg. He has a usage rate of 25% and should get about 30 DKFP on the evening. I think he makes for a great tournament play tonight.
Dud of the Night
Carmelo Anthony (7,900) – Usually I am big Melo fan, but I don’t think we can trust him the rest of the season. He is only playing for the fans and shouldn’t put up big minutes. I always suggest finding guys in spots that matter during this part of the season.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points