Scoring is going to be extremely high on DraftKings tonight. The pricing has softened up, and we already have a fistful of very strong value plays available. Starting rosters with cheap players whose baseline projection is at least 5x salary will put you on the right path.
|Probable||Marvin Williams (CHA), Jusuf Nurkic (DEN), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET), Reggie Bullock (DET), Gorgui Dieng (MIN), DeMarcus Cousins (SAC), Rajon Rondo (SAC), Bradley Beal (WAS), Kyle Lowry (TOR), Kobe Bryant (LAL)|
|Questionable||Kenneth Faried (DEN), Luol Deng (MIA), Ben McLemore (SAC), Patrick Patterson (TOR), Victor Oladipo (ORL)|
|Doubtful||Ryan Kelly (LAL), Ersan Ilyasova (ORL), Alan Anderson (WAS)|
|Out||Chandler Parsons (DAL), Andre Iguodala (GSW), PJ Hairston (MEM), Mike Conley (MEM), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Tyson Chandler (PHX), Kawhi Leonard (SAS), Zach Randolph (MEM), Deron Williams (DAL), Dirk Nowitzki (DAL), Devin Harris (DAL), Patty Mills (SAS), Boris Diaw (SAS), Danny Green (SAS)|
1. Phoenix Suns
Tyson Chandler (back) will miss his second straight game, presumably giving Jon Leuer another start at $4,100. I expect Leuer to be the highest-owned player on the entire slate by far — and with good reason. He’s averaging 36.5 minutes across the last two games, gets 1.012 DK points per minute (more than Nerlens Noel, Thaddeus Young, Marc Gasol, etc.) and has a pristine matchup against a Kings team that leads the league in pace while ranking T-24 in defensive efficiency.
A sneakier play on Phoenix is P.J. Tucker, who is averaging a whopping 37.2 minutes over his last five games and gets more burn at power forward with Chandler down. At a very, very weak small forward position, Tucker makes sense as a punt. One Sun that scares me is Alex Len, who ranks 7th in fouls per 36 minutes among players with at least 1,000 minutes on the season. DeMarcus Cousins, who Len will likely be covering, leads the league in fouls drawn per game by a wide margin at 8.9 per game.
2. Orlando Magic
Nikola Vucevic (groin) is out again and Victor Oladipo (wrist) is headed for a game-time decision. The problem with trying to capitalize here is a matchup with a fully healthy Heat team that ranks 27th in pace and sixth in defensive efficiency. Two guys worth considering for tournaments if Oladipo sits are direct backup Mario Hezonja and Elfrid Payton. Hezonja averages 28.3 minutes per game as a starter this year but gets just .668 DK points per minute. Payton, already announced as tonight’s starting point guard, plays 28.7 minutes per game with Oladipo active vs. 35.4 with Dipo sidelined.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
Zach Randolph (knee) going back to shelf would normally set off a chain reaction with Grizzlies plays. Note JaMychal Green averages a very strong 33.1 minutes per game this season when both Marc Gasol (out, foot) and Z-Bo are sidelined. Usage for players such as Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson and Tony Allen all get a bump as well. The issue is a road spot against the league’s best defense. JaMychal and friends are only tournament plays for me.
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT
1. Devin Booker against the Kings
Despite being just 19 years old, Devin Booker has established himself as a plus NBA player already. He’s earned an absurd 37.8 minutes per game in March, averaging 21.9 real-life points per game. Minutes and real-life points are the two of the strongest correlations with fantasy points. Tonight, Booker gets a matchup with a Kings team that has been incapable of defending wing players all year. They give up the most 3-pointers per game in the NBA and rank 25th in 3-point percentage allowed. As previously noted, the Kings also lead the league in pace and are T-24th in defensive efficiency.
|Player Targets||Levitan's Leverage||Cheat Sheet|
|Game Breakdowns||Click For More||Tournament Plays|
SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON
1. Spurs resting four regulars
Tonight’s home game against the injury-ravaged Grizzlies is the front end of a back-to-back for the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Patty Mills and Boris Diaw (who combine for 34.7 field-goal attempts per game) will all sit. The easiest place to capitalize is with LaMarcus Aldridge, who is shooting 54.9 percent from the field and 93.3 percent from the line during a scorching March. The offense will flow through him tonight. Thinner plays include David West, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Kyle Anderson, all of whom are underpriced relative to their projected minutes in tonight’s thinned-out rotation.
2. Wizards, Rockets scraping for playoffs
At this time of year, it’s important to be aware of the standings. When teams go to their “playoff rotations” during the regular season, we get bloated minutes. That’s what we’ve seen out of the Wizards (2.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the East) and Rockets (tied for last spot in the West) lately. John Wall, James Harden, Dwight Howard are extending themselves for 35+ minutes per night and therefore make for excellent core options.
1. Mavericks with Dirk, Deron, Parsons and Devin Harris out
Parsons is done for the season while Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Devin Harris are all resting for various reasons. That quartet combines for 112.4 minutes per game as well as 50.7 percent of the Mavs’ field-goal attempts and 52.1 percent of their points. The first adjustment I’m making is drastically slashing minute projections for all Warriors starters as this game will almost certainly turn into a blowout. Expect the Mavs to start J.J. Barea and possibly David Lee, guys that get 1.039 and .860 DraftKings points per minute respectively. With Lee at $4,800 and Barea at $3,600, they are both grossly underpriced in this spot. I also feel better about rostering flavor of the week Salah Mejri, who has passed up Zaza Pachulia on the depth chart. Without Dirk available for some small-ball center, Mejri’s minutes are more secure.
Cash Game Thoughts
Who I’m Considering In DraftKings H2H, Double-Up and 50/50 Contests
No particular order
|PG||Brandon Knight, John Wall, Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, Rajon Rondo, J.J. Barea|
|SG||James Harden, Devin Booker, Andrew Wiggins, Wes Matthews, Raymond Felton|
|SF||P.J. Tucker, Tobias Harris, Kyle Anderson (if he starts), Rudy Gay|
|PF||Jon Leuer, Julius Randle, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul Millsap, David Lee|
|C||Marcin Gortat, Dwight Howard, Salah Mejri, Karl-Anthony Towns, Hassan Whiteside|