Damian Lillard

Friday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contests on DraftKings feature a choice between four NBA games: Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers (7:00 p.m. ET), Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET), Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns (9:00 p.m. ET) and Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz (10:30 p.m. ET). This article will focus on the late game. The Jazz are 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game has a total points of 226.5. The Jazz have the rest advantage, as the Trail Blazers are flying into Utah to play on the second night of a back-to-back. The featured contest for this game is the $60K Step-Back Fadeaway. Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $60K Step-Back Fadeaway [$15K to 1st] (POR vs UTA).

As of early Friday morning, there are no notable players on the injury report for this game, although that could change as the day progresses. For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app, as NBA news, injury reports and betting lines on DraftKings Sportsbook can change throughout the day. Value also unexpectedly can open up due to late lineup changes and late injury news, making it important to stay up-to-the-minute with the DK Live app until lineups lock. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.


BETTING TRENDS

— The Jazz have an 18-5 record in home games in 2019-20

— The Jazz have a 12-10-1 against-the-spread record in home games in 2019-20

— The Trail Blazers are 7-18 as the underdog in 2019-20

— The Jazz have a 29-11 record as the favorite in 2019-20

— The Trail Blazers have covered the spread in 41% of their games

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

The Trail Blazers and Jazz have played twice this season, splitting wins, with each team winning at home. They most recently played on Feb. 1 in Portland, where the Trail Blazers won in a 17-point blowout. A large reason for the blowout was the insane play of Damian Lillard ($12,800). Lillard scored 51 points on 17-29 (59%) shooting, including a ridiculous 9-of-15 (60%) from 3-point range. Lillard finished with 79 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP), which capped off an epic run of six straight games with at least 70 DKFP to propel him into the MVP conversation. During that stretch, Lillard’s volume was titanic, averaging 28 shots per game and 14 3-point attempts per game, both of which would lead the NBA over the course of a full season. Lillard has cooled off in two games since then, but his recent play showcases his explosive ceiling even against a difficult Jazz defense that is tough to score fantasy points against. Utah has held opponents to the seventh fewest points per game and the fewest assists per game while ranking as a top-10 team on the glass by the percentage of missed shots rebounded. Despite that, Lillard’s ability to hit tough shots combined with potential huge volume makes him the top player to build lineups around in this contest. Lillard is shooting a remarkable 39% on tightly guarded 3-point attempts this season, as measured by the league’s player tracking system, which measures the closest defender to the shooter. The league average is about 30% on tightly guarded 3-point attempts.

Other potential options on Portland include Hassan Whiteside ($10,400), CJ McCollum ($8,800) and Carmelo Anthony ($7,400). Whiteside is coming off a quality performance against the Jazz in their most recent matchup on Feb. 1, scoring 51.75 DKFP on the back of a heavy 21 rebounds. An interior matchup against stud rim protector and rebounder Rudy Gobert ($10,800) is challenging, but Whiteside was up for the task in their last meeting. McCollum and Anthony have performed worse than their season averages in two previous meetings against Utah.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Whiteside (leg) has been ruled out tonight vs. the Jazz.

On the flip side, Portland has been weak defensively and generally weak on the glass, which could create a good matchup for Utah players at home. The Trail Blazers have allowed the fifth most points to opponents and rank as the league’s eighth worst rebounding team by the percentage of missed shots rebounded. Donovan Mitchell ($9,600) has outperformed his season average in two games vs. Portland this season, averaging 43 DKFP on 30 points per game. Mike Conley ($7,600), who was recently moved back into the starting lineup after a lengthy injury absence, is coming off his best fantasy performance since being traded to the Jazz, scoring 42 DKFP in 34 minutes against the Nuggets. With Conley potentially trending back up, he is a mid-tier option as the fourth highest priced Jazz starter in this contest. Jordan Clarkson ($6,000) is also an affordable option in a good matchup. While Portland as a team has generally struggled on the glass over a 48-minute game, their center, Hassan Whiteside, is one of the league’s best rebounders, which does give Rudy Gobert ($10,800) a difficult head-to-head matchup on the glass when they face each other on the court. Gobert is averaging about two less rebounds per game than his season average in two meetings against Portland this season.


THE OUTCOME

Damian Lillard ($19,200 CP) is very expensive as Captain’s Pick, but his explosive upside even in a difficult matchup makes him worth paying up for. For the Jazz, Donovan Mitchell ($14,400 CP) is a Captain’s Pick option in a good matchup, with Mike Conley ($11,400 CP) a sleeper candidate.

The Jazz have been on a skid, losing five straight games, including losing as sizable home favorites against an undermanned Nuggets team in their most recent game. However, this should be a challenging spot for the Trail Blazers, as they are flying into Utah on the second night of a back-to-back, which could make them high risk for fatigue. Utah is generally considered a difficult place to play in part due to the altitude, which can sap players of their legs as the game goes on. The Jazz have also played just one game since last Saturday, so they should enjoy a significant rest advantage, which sets up well for Utah to win and cover the 8.5-point spread on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Final score: Jazz 115, Trail Blazers 105

Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $60K Step-Back Fadeaway [$15K to 1st] (POR vs UTA).


For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app and follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is timfinn521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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