Grizzlies at Heat: Total at 195.5
This game should be a really painful to watch as we have the worst offense in the NBA over the last 10 days in the Grizzlies taking on the mediocre Heat in a game of first to 100 points. The Grizzlies have a 101.9 offensive rating right now and have the third slowest pace of play at 96.25 and are just behind the Heat at 96.2. Neither of these teams shoot especially well either, as both are under 55% in TS% (true shooting percentage). I wouldn’t suggest watching this one, just take the under and watch some football instead.
Jazz vs. Bulls: Jazz Favored by 11
Take the Points for the Jazz (-110)
The Jazz have been absolutely on fire over the last couple games and face off against one of the worst teams in the league, the Bulls, giving them one of the highest spreads on the day. Something that has been paramount to the Jazz and their success (apart from Donovan Mitchell being unconscious from the field) is their rebounding, as they are the best in the league at pulling down defensive boards at 77.4% over the past 10 games. The Bulls are the slowest team in the league (pace of 94.91) and miss a lot of shots (TS% of just 54.3%) so I expect the Jazz to capitalize on those mistakes in the transition game and build a big lead. This game should be over before the fourth quarter, just need worry about the backdoor cover.
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: Timberwolves total at 116.5
Call it a hunch, but I think that the Timberwolves are happy with the firing of Tom Thibodeau. Over the two games that he has been gone they have put up 119 points per game against the Thunder and the Mavericks (both with a solid defensive rating of 106) and now get to face a Pelicans team that is much worse on defense, especially in the paint. Centers have eaten against the Pelicans when Anthony Davis is healthy (Centers get a 18% boost in efficiency when facing them) and when a key player on a team has a good matchup it’s generally a good indication of points to come. This game should have minimal defense and lots of scoring, basically take all the overs.
Kyle Anderson vs. Heat: 9.5 points
Over the last 10 games, Anderson is averaging 10.26 points per game at 33 minutes of action. His opponent today, the Heat, offers one of the better efficiency matchups as opposing SFs average an increase of 3.85% across statistical categories, as well as an increase of .43% in scoring. As terrible of an overall game this will be to watch (both teams play slow and boring), the points total for multiple players are easily exploitable. So long as Anderson is able to meet his minutes averages in a close game, he should have no trouble exploiting one of the better matchups available in this game for a nice over.
D.J. Augustin vs. Celtics: 11.5 points
This is a great matchup to exploit for one of the less popular players on the slate in Augustin, who is facing the Celtics. Boston has had flashes of great defense this season but has struggled mightily against the PG position as Kyrie Irving is a notoriously bad defender. Augustin is averaging 15.13 points per 28 minutes of action over the past 10 games and faces a team that allows an 11.5% efficiency boost to his position. He is dependent on the three ball to meet his totals, but given his averages in recent games combined with the Celtics troubles guarding the backcourt, He has good opportunity to surpass his points totals.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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