Paul George

With the NBA trade deadline rapidly approaching, we could be in for a wild day Wednesday. To top it off, we have a busy nine-game slate. One of those is a juicy matchup between the Heat and Clippers, which will also serve as the featured Showdown contest. Let’s discuss how things might play out for both teams.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.

SHOWDOWN CAPTAIN’S TO CONSIDER


FIVE BETTING TRENDS

— The Clippers have won each of their last eight home games against Eastern Conference opponents.

— The Clippers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against Southeast Division opponents.

— Each of the Heat’s last four games at STAPLES Center have gone UNDER the total points line.

— Kawhi Leonard has scored 31-plus points in four of his last five appearances at STAPLES center.

— Paul George has scored 24-plus points in each of his last eight appearances against Southeast Division opponents.

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st]


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Clippers

The Clippers actually come into this game healthy, meaning you’ll have both Kawhi Leonard ($11,000) and Paul George ($9,400) available for your entry. George has gradually increased his playing time since returning from injury, topping out at 31 minutes against the Spurs on Monday. While Leonard might be the safer option, it’s hard to argue against rolling with George given his potential to stuff the stat sheet any given night and his significantly lower price tag.

With both Leonard and George in the fold, the Clippers won’t need to rely on either Montrezl Harrell ($8,400) or Lou Williams ($8,200) for added production. Harrell is in a tough spot since the Heat rank sixth against opposing centers in terms of fantasy points allowed. Williams also hasn’t topped 32 DKFP in either of the three games since George returned from injury, making him a risky option given his hefty price tag.

It’s a steep drop off between Williams and the next-most expensive player on the Clippers, who happens to be Patrick Beverley ($6,200). Still, Beverley is not all that appealing since he has scored 28.3 DKFP or fewer in five of his last six games. Ivica Zubac ($4,800) is in a similar situation as Harrell with regards to the Heat locking down opposing centers. When these two teams met a couple of weeks ago, Zubac posted only four points and eight rebounds across 19 minutes.

As unappealing as Beverley and Zubac might be, Landry Shamet ($4,600) is even worse. He’s scored 17.3 DKFP or fewer in back-to-back contests and will likely struggle to find shot attempts with everyone else healthy. If there is one cheap player on the Clippers to consider, it might be JaMychal Green ($3,800). He’s scored at least 19.3 DKFP in two of his last three games and posted 28.5 DKFP the last time these two teams met.


Heat

The dynamic duo of Jimmy Butler ($10,000) and Bam Adebayo ($9,600) have helped the Heat become one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. They both played well in their previous meeting with the Clippers since Butler scored 40 DKFP and Adebayo scored 41.5 DKFP. Both are excellent options this time around, as well, although Butler might have more of an uphill battle with defensive studs Leonard and George healthy.

Although Goran Dragic ($7,600) is no longer starting for the Heat, he’s thrived coming off the bench by averaging 16 points and five assists a game. However, with his lack of rebounds and defensive stats, he comes with plenty of risk since the Clippers have the fifth-best defensive rating in the league. The absence of Tyler Herro (foot) could force the Heat to rely more on Kendrick Nunn ($6,000) and Duncan Robinson ($5,200), who have both played surprisingly well this season. Nunn might be guard by Beverley, though, so rolling with Robinson could be the smart play if you are trying to decide between these two.

Not only will Herro miss this game, but so will Justise Winslow (back) and Meyers Leonard (ankle). With this trio sidelined, Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,200) is an intriguing cheap option. He’s scored at least 22.8 DKFP in back-to-back games in large part because he logged at least 28 minutes in both contests. Similar playing time could be in the cards for him here. That type of playing time might not be so easy to come by for Dion Waiters ($3,400), Kelly Olynyk ($3,000) or James Johnson ($2,400), so don’t consider any of them as anything more than dart throws in tournament play. However, if you do want to settle on one of these three, Olynyk did score 34.4 DKFP the last time he faced the Clippers.


THE OUTCOME

With the Clippers being healthy and the Heat having just a 12-12 record on the road, look for the Clippers to emerge victorious. With regards to options for Captain’s Pick, George ($14,100 CP) might be the way to go. He’s the cheapest of the four players in the top-tier of options and has just as high of an upside as any of them.

Final Score: Clippers 117, Heat 112

Set your lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st]


Favorite Prop Bet

Ivica Zubac, 7.5 Points: Under (-127)

With how well Adebayo has locked down the paint for the Heat, don’t look for Zubac to have a strong offensive showing. Not only did he score just four points the last time these two teams met, but Zubac has scored six points or fewer in four of his last five games, overall.


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