I already know this slate is going to get a little weird. We’ve got an eight-game NBA tonight on DraftKings, featuring more than a couple contests with double-digit spreads. These are the types of things that can happen when you’ve got the four teams with the worst defensive ratings in the league all playing on the same night; not to mention five of the top six squads in pace. Who can we count on to take advantage of their fantastic matchup on Tuesday?
Let’s break it all down position-by-position.
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StudKyle Lowry, TOR vs. ATL, $7,200 – The scary thing about narrative plays is that you can feel pretty stupid if they don’t hit. However, when it comes to Lowry’s matchup with the Hawks, we’ve got a storyline and an atrocious defense. Lowry is sitting nine assists away from becoming the Raptors’ all-time franchise leader. With Toronto suiting up on the road for its next two contests, the veteran will likely want to accomplish the feat at home and it doesn’t hurt that Vince Carter will be in the house for what could be his final game north of the border. Lowry’s assist rate does fall from 35.8% to 24.1% with Fred VanVleet ($8,200) on the floor, yet that might not matter against an Atlanta team racking up 105.8 possessions per 48 minutes across its past 10 games.
Other Option: Trae Young ($10,300)
ValueIsh Smith, WAS at MIL, $4,500 – Despite a difficult matchup with the Bucks on Tuesday, Smith does have a few things working in his favor. First and foremost, he’s at his least expensive price point since all the way back on Jan. 3. Aside from that, Jordan McRae (ankle) has already been ruled out of tonight’s matchup, which should open up a few extra minutes for Smith and possibly even Isaiah Thomas ($4,000). He’s not the most consistent asset in the world, but the veteran as also exceeded 28.0 DKFP in three of his past five games.
Other Option: Marcus Smart ($5,800)
StudDevin Booker, PHO at DAL, $9,100 – Though Dallas has been quite adept at limiting the DFS production of opposing guards so far in 2019-20, Booker has the potential to be in a fantastic spot this evening. Ricky Rubio (ankle) is currently considered questionable to play Tuesday due to an ankle ailment and the veteran’s possible absence is of massive importance. In fact, Booker’s usage rate climbs from 27.7% to 33.9% with Rubio off the floor. He also averages a robust 1.34 DKFP per minute with the point guard on the sideline. Additionally, it doesn’t hurt matters that no player seeing 50-plus touches on a nightly basis is producing more points per touch than Booker this season (0.45).
EDITOR’S NOTE: Rubio has been upgraded to probable for tonight’s game.
Other Option: Collin Sexton ($6,500)
ValueTorrey Craig, DEN at MEM, $4,300 – It sort of just feels like either Craig or Gary Harris ($4,300) is going to be a great value on this slate and if I had to side with one over the other, it’d be with the former. Harris simply doesn’t bring a lot of upside when it comes to secondary statistics. He’s averaging a mere 3.1 rebounds per 36 minutes – the lowest rate on the Nuggets this season – and his 9.3% assist rate isn’t all that inspiring. Meanwhile, Craig has exceeded 30.0 DKFP in two of his past three starts and he should be in a nice environment to do something similar this evening against a Grizzlies team that ranks third in pace across its past 15 games (103.8).
Other Option: Josh Hart ($4,400)
StudGordon Hayward, BOS at MIA, $7,100 – This contests between the Celtics and the Heat actually has one of the lower implied totals on the slate, yet Hayward remains in an interesting spot. Jayson Tatum (groin) is doubtful to play on Tuesday, meaning Hayward should be able to pick up right where he’s left off in Boston’s past two matchups. Hayward’s logged at least 37 minutes in each game, averaging 22.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 42.0 DKFP. In what should be a tight script against a good Miami squad, I’d expect Hayward’s role to stay pretty similar.
Other Option: Will Barton ($6,600)
ValueDamyean Dotson, NYK at CHA, $3,200 – Dotson came crashing back down to Earth in Sunday’s win over Brooklyn, scoring just four points in under 20 minutes of action; yet I don’t think it’s immediately time to jump off the bandwagon. The 25-year-old is still shooting 57.5% (23-for-40) from the field in his past five games and he’s seemingly usurped Dennis Smith Jr. ($3,000) in the rotation. Dotson doesn’t have to do all that much to hit value and should find little resistance from a Hornets’ defense that’s conceded 115.0 points per 100 possessions over their past 15 matchups.
StudPascal Siakam, TOR vs. ATL, $8,000 – Siakam is a day removed from winning the Eastern Conference’s Player of the Week Award, as the Cameroonian settles back into a groove following a prolonged injury absence. In fact, in his past three starts Siakam is averaging 45.0 DKFP with a 31.1% usage rate. Basically, he’s almost completely back to normal. That’s good enough for me, as the All-Star readies himself to take on an Atlanta team that’s allowing the second-most opponent points per contest in 2019-20 (117.8).
Other Option: Julius Randle ($8,600)
ValueMarquese Chriss, GS at PHI, $4,300 – It hasn’t really been a question of production with Chriss so far this season — the big man is averaging over 1.0 DKFP per minute on the court — but more a question of consistent role. Well, now playing on a new two-way deal and with Willie Cauley-Stein in Dallas, that’s no longer all that daunting an issue. Chriss drew the start against Indiana on Friday and he’s managed 26.6 DKFP in his opportunities with Golden State’s starting five in 2019-20. If he gets the call again, he’s very viable this evening.
Other Option: Kyle Anderson ($4,100)
StudNikola Jokic, DEN at MEM, $10,200 – This feels pretty obvious. Jokic is putting up some insane numbers since Jamal Murray (ankle) went down six games ago, averaging 54.8 DKFP on a robust 32.8% usage rate. It’s a span that’s also seen Jokic produce six double-doubles and two triple-doubles. Considering Memphis’ want to play at an exceedingly uptempo pace, Jokic should continue to shine as a DFS commodity this evening in one of the best matchups a high-usage player could draw.
Other Option: Al Horford ($6,800)
ValueTaj Gibson, NYK at CHA, $3,400 – Gibson is by no means a high-ceiling option, however, he has been rather consistent as of late. In fact, across the veteran’s past nine starts, Gibson’s hit at least 5x value in six different occasions. With Charlotte conceding the second-most made field goal per game in the restricted area (20.8) and owning the league’s third-lowest total rebounding rate (48.3%), Gibson has the opportunity to take advantage of a soft interior defense on Tuesday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.