A half-hour is a precious thing. Stand-up comedians could spend years crafting enough jokes to fill out 30 minutes of material. All iconic “Simpsons” episodes are 30 minutes long, once you’ve included commercial breaks. Heck, sometimes you get the pizza for free if it doesn’t get to your front door in 30 minutes or fewer. There’s so much you can do with an extra half-hour and that’s exactly what we receive this evening with DraftKings’ six-game NBA slate tipping off at 7:30 pm ET.
So you order that pie and cross your fingers. While we wait, let’s break down Tuesday’s action position-by-position.
TOP FORWARDS TO CONSIDER
StudD’Angelo Russell, GS vs. DAL, $7,900 – It’s difficult to segment Russell’s 2019-20 campaign, as he’s so often missed games due to injury; however, if you get creative, you’ll start to see some pretty promising trends. The former Eastern Conference All-Star has exceeded 40.0 DKFP in six of his past seven starts and, within that same span, he’s mustered an eye-popping 33.5% usage rate. With very little in terms of secondary scoring options and Dallas having surrendered 115.9 points per 100 possessions across its last five contests, Russell’s ceiling is higher than most on this slate.
Other Option: Devin Booker ($8,200)
ValueBrandon Goodwin, ATL vs. PHO, $4,000 – Obviously, Goodwin’s value is mostly tied to the status of Trae Young (hamstring), yet the sophomore’s involvement in Atlanta’s offense has spiked in the past few weeks. Goodwin’s seen a significant workload in nine-straight contests, with the 24-year-old seeing the court for almost 27 minutes in Sunday’s loss to Brooklyn. He hasn’t been shy, either. Goodwin’s averaged 16.1 field goal attempts per 36 minutes so far this season, trailing only the likes of Young, John Collins and Jabari Parker on the Hawks’ roster.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Young (hamstring) is available for tonight’s game.
Other Option: De’Anthony Melton ($4,400)
StudJames Harden, HOU at MEM, $13,000 – I don’t think Harden is necessarily a must-play on this particular slate, but he’s hard to ignore completely in a matchup of two of the NBA’s highest-paced teams. It’s also not like he hasn’t been able to bring back value at an astronomical salary before. Harden’s produced at least 5x value four of the prior seven times his price tag has exceeded $12.5K in 2019-20 and, with Russell Westbrook (rest) riding the pine tonight, I think he can make that five of eight. To wit, his usage rate is a mind-numbing 47.6% this season when not sharing the court with Westbrook. That feels like a typo.
Other Option: Lou Williams ($7,500)
ValueBen McLemore, HOU at MEM, $3,500 – There are no guarantees that McLemore will be starting for a second-straight game, though you’d have to like his chances with Westbrook’s aforementioned absence and the questionable tag currently on P.J. Tucker (shoulder). Technically, the Rockets have to begin the game with five players and, in McLemore’s nine previous opportunities to run with the starters, he’s averaged 27.4 DKFP. Even if he doesn’t get the nod, the former lottery pick should be looking at a decent-sized role in a contest with easily the highest implied total on the slate.
Other Option: Alec Burks ($5,300)
StudKelly Oubre, PHO at ATL, $7,900 – As they say, sometimes the best ability is availability. Oubre’s practically lived on the court in Phoenix’s past eight games, averaging a Western Conference high 38.3 minutes across that stretch of action. That’s a level of volume that no longer dictates a player need be efficient, yet Oubre’s checked the box in that capacity, too. In fact, the 24-year-old has produced 1.16 DKFP per 60 seconds of work, a rate greatly assisted by Oubre grabbing 8.5 rebounds a night and maintaining a pristine .655 true shooting percentage so far in January.
Other Option: Kawhi Leonard ($10,000)
ValueDillon Brooks, MEM vs. HOU, $5,400 – Brooks isn’t the most consistent DFS asset in the world, as you probably realized after a 3-for-11 shooting performance versus the Warriors on Sunday; however, he’s going to put up his shots. On the Grizzlies’ roster, only Jaren Jackson Jr. is hoisting up more attempts than Brooks’ 21.9 per 100 possessions and, in recent contest, those looks have generally been falling. The Canadian is averaging 19.0 points per night in his past seven starts.
StudJulius Randle, NY at MIL, $7,500 – While it’s true that Milwaukee doesn’t surrender anything at the rim – opponents are averaging a league-low 23.6 field goal attempts per game in the restricted area – I still think Randle is in a really nice spot this evening. The big man is putting 45.3 DKFP across his past eight starts, a span in which he’s also produced 23.8 points per contest and four double-doubles. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Randle possesses a massive 31.2% usage rate in 2019-20 without Marcus Morris (neck) on the court.
Other Option: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,800)
ValueSolomon Hill, MEM vs. HOU, $3,100 – Hill’s viability is completely a matter of who actually ends up active this evening for the Grizzlies. Still, there’s a scenario where the veteran forward almost becomes a must-play option. Jae Crowder (hip), Brandon Clarke (thumb) and Kyle Anderson (foot) are all questionable to suit up on Tuesday, meaning there’s a non-zero chance that Hill even starts against the Rockets; something he’s done twice in 2019-20 and averaged 29.0 DKFP. Heck, with Jackson’s penchant for foul trouble, there’s a world where Hill logs 30-plus minutes. Keep an eye on Memphis’ injury report.
Other Option: Maxi Kleber ($5,400)
StudClint Capela, HOU at MEM, $7,800 – Capela’s DFS output can be sporadic, but tonight seems like a smash spot for the lanky veteran. While Memphis doesn’t necessarily bleed DKFP to opposing big men, it has conceded a league-high 115.6 points per game across its past 10 contests – the direct result of sitting second in the NBA in pace during that span (103.9). There’s also the matter of Westbrook. Generally, the absence of a guard would have little to do with a center’s value, yet Westbrook’s elite positional rebounding ability comes into play. Capela’s total rebounding rate rises from 20.5% to 24.9% when his teammate has been off the court so far in 2019-20.
Other Option: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,300)
ValueDeAndre Jordan, BRK vs. UTA, $4,400 – Jordan’s ceiling is relatively low, but his floor is sort of enticing on this evening’s slate. The veteran has averaged a respectable 1.07 DKFP per minute played across his past seven games, a span where’s he’s exceeded 20.0 DKFP six times. There’s also a chance that Kenny Atkinson decides to give Jordan some extra work on Tuesday in a matchup with the interior-oriented Rudy Gobert.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.