We’ve got an eight-game featured NBA slate this evening on DraftKings, one that is highlighted by a pair of unlikely marquee matchups. Seriously, I don’t think there’s been another year in the history of the league where anyone would suggest they’re legitimately excited by the prospect of watching Brooklyn-Utah, let alone anything to do with Phoenix. Yet, here we are.
As always, there are injuries aplenty to keep track of, so make sure you stay up to date all the way to tip-off by downloading the DK Live app. They’ll have all the news and notes you’ll need and I’ll supply the picks. Let’s get into it.
StudDonovan Mitchell, UTA vs. BRK, $7,900 – A majority of tonight’s games feature two teams that rank in the lower-half of the NBA in pace. Utah’s down there. It manages only 99.6 possessions per 48 minutes this season, making it the fourth-slowest squad in the league. However, Brooklyn is one of the few opponents that might make the Jazz change that approach. The Nets just inspire points. Their up-tempo style and defensive lapses have resulted in all nine teams playing Brooklyn scoring at least 109 points. With that as a floor, Mitchell should be able to work his magic. The third-year guard has been hyper-involved in Utah’s past four contests, posting a 34.7% usage rate and 1.24 DKFP per minute within that span. Such aggressiveness is rewarded against the Nets. Always. Other Option: Trae Young ($9,200)
ValueCory Joseph, SAC vs. POR, $3,700 – The generally passive nature of Joseph isn’t all that appealing a fantasy trait. However, that’s going to be the next development of the discussion surrounding his viability as De’Aaron Fox (ankle) sits out the next month. For now, with his price point yet to adjust to the news, Joseph’s just someone you have to put in a lineup or two. He’s started 95 games in his career and averaged 9.8 points and 3.8 assists in just under 30 minutes of action. It’s likely he’ll share the burden of initiating the offense with Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400) and Buddy Hield ($6,600), but the fact remains he’ll see a heavy workload. Coming off his best two performances of the season with Fox still active, Joseph’s an obvious target.
Other Option: Emmanuel Mudiay ($3,100)
StudLuke Kennard, DET at MIA, $6,000 – The Pistons slowly are getting healthier, but minutes restrictions and the continued absence of Reggie Jackson (back) have forced Kennard to expand his game in 2019-20. So far, he’s done quite a nice job. Kennard’s hit 5x value in all six games Detroit’s played in November, a fact that’s not all that difficult to understand when you look at the numbers. Since the month began, Kennard’s paired a .618 true shooting percentage with a 23.6% usage rate. That efficiency has allowed the Duke product to collect 21.5 points and 4.5 assists per contest within this stretch. Also, in his past two starts specifically, he’s averaged more than 40 minutes of playing time. That definitely will raise your floor. Other Option: Malcolm Brogdon ($7,600)
ValueAnfernee Simons, POR at SAC, $4,900 – Simons’ salary has been climbing as he’s shown off his scoring prowess in recent games, but, with a price tag still below $5K, I think you can go back to the well with the sophomore one more time. Simons has attempted double-digit field goals in four straight contests coming into this evening’s matchup with Sacramento, a span where he’s averaged a massive 1.3 points per possession used and has logged the fourth-most minutes of any Trail Blazers player. That last part really seems to be the key, as Simons has exceeded 6x value all three times he’s seen at least 24 minutes of action in 2019-20. Playing in the game that features the slate’s highest implied total, Simons is clearly viable.
Other Option: Josh Richardson ($5,700)
StudLeBron James, LAL at PHO, $10,500 – It would seem the only real threat to James hitting value this evening is Rajon Rondo’s ($4,900) possible return from injury. Yet, even that isn’t the most worrisome thing in the world. James has embraced to role of creator and pseudo point guard on the Lakers, as he comes into Tuesday’s slate leading the NBA in both assists per game (11.0) and assist rate (51.8%). Heck, the former MVP hit only five field goals and scored just 13 points in Sunday’s loss to Toronto and still managed to hit 5x value due to his secondary statistics. With four triple-doubles in his past five contests and a competitive Suns team to keep him on the court, James is in a great spot tonight. Other Option: Bojan Bogdonovic ($6,400)
ValueBogdan Bogdanovic, SAC vs. POR, $5,400 – You’d have to go all the way back to Fox and Bogdanovic’s rookie season to find the last time the Kings’ point guard missed a significant stretch of basketball. From Dec. 12 to Dec. 31 in 2017, Fox was able to play only 11 minutes for a fledgling Sacramento squad; however, his absence turned out to be the opportunity Bogdanovic needed to break out. The Serbian wasn’t exactly otherworldly with Fox sidelined, yet he did lead the team with a 21.6% assist rate during this three-week run. In the present, Bogdanovic is a far more proven NBA commodity and also one that’s posted his two best scoring performances of the season in the Kings’ past two matchups. With his shot falling and his role set to expand, the 27-year-old should be in for a good Tuesday night.
Other Option: Chandler Hutchinson ($4,000)
StudDomantas Sabonis, IND vs. OKC, $8,400 – Injuries to the Pacers’ front court and a revenge game? What more could you ask for when assessing Sabonis’ value this evening? The former lottery pick has been an absolute monster on the glass since returning from a brief two-game absence last week, averaging 17.0 points and 15.7 rebounds across his past three contests. Out of necessity, Sabonis also has been the focal point of Indiana’s offense. In that same three-game span — without the services of Myles Turner (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (ankle) — Sabonis has been operating with a 24.9% usage rate and delivering an eye-popping 1.42 DKFP per minute. With both sitting again and the Thunder surrendering the fourth-most DKFP to opposing power forwards, Sabonis is going to eat. Other Option: Jabari Parker ($7,300)
ValueMarcus Morris, NY at CHI, $6,300 – Morris produced a clunker his last time out against Cleveland, but even with that blemish on his resume, the veteran has been putting up astonishing numbers so far in November. Playing 35.9 minutes per game, Morris is averaging 22.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 37.6 DKFP. It’s also within this span that Morris is leading all Knicks players with 42.8 front court touches per contest. Put simply, the 30-year-old appears to be New York’s No. 1 scoring option. That’s not usually an enviable position to be in, but the Bulls do make it at least a little enticing.
StudNikola Jokic, DEN vs. ATL, $8,300 – This is a play based purely on salary. While an apathetic Jokic was deserving of a drop in price after a slow start to the season, it’s jarring to see a player who generally lives at or above $10K sitting this cheap. It also is not like he hasn’t clearly — and notably — begun to turn his season around. With a usage rate hovering around 30%, Jokic has attempted 45 shots in the Nuggets’ past two games, a stretch where the big man is averaging 23.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists. If he’s going to be playing with this level of aggression and with this level of volume, it’s hard to see Jokic not bringing back value on this slate. Other Option: Joel Embiid ($9,400)
ValueBobby Portis, NY at CHI, $5,500 – Portis has been absolutely reprehensible shooting the basketball in 2019-20, but I don’t think it’s a fluke he dropped 28 and 11 the last time the Knicks played the Bulls. While Portis does seem petty enough to actually warrant some consideration into the usually jokey concept of a revenge game, this is mostly about Chicago’s inadequacies; specifically its inability to rebound. The Bulls come into this evening’s matchup with the NBA’s lowest overall rebounding rate (46.8%), while Portis owns the highest total rebounding rate of any active New York player (17.4%). In the scripts where Portis has grabbed double-digit boards, he’s averaged 33.5 DKFP. It’s just that simple.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.