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WATCH: NASCAR Price Check — Monster Energy NASCAR All-Star Race

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

RANKDRIVERSALARY
1Kyle Busch$10,500
2Joey Logano$9,300
3Brad Keselowski$9,000
4Kevin Harvick$9,800
5Chase Elliott$10,100

1. Kyle Busch ($10,500) – The All-Star Race is basically a bunch of restarts for $1 million. Not only has Busch been the best driver in the best car, but he’s been the best driver on restarts in the 2019 package. (6.2 fppk)

2. Joey Logano ($9,300) – Driving from the back of the field to the front of the field is not as easy at it once was for elite drivers in elite cars. The 2019 rules package has created a racing product that favors track position over talent and equipment. Logano started in the back and finished 15th at Kansas. (4.9 fppk)

3. Brad Keselowski ($9,000) – A typical Keselowski win involves borderline sorcery. Kansas was dominated by Harvick, Elliott, and Bowman, but those drivers did not win. Keselowski’s Kansas win was not luck. He has a great a car and he wins when he is supposed to win, but he also wins when he is not supposed to win. (5.4 fppk)

4. Kevin Harvick ($9,800) – The defending All-Star Race winner is unlikely to pocket $1 million. Not because he can’t win, which he likely won’t based on his performance thus far, but because the idea that the driver collects all of the $1 million is a ludicrous lie promoted by NASCAR and the media. The tire-changer gets his cut, and so does the PR lady. (4.4 fppk)

5. Chase Elliott ($10,100) – Logano could not drive from the back of the field to front at Kansas, but Elliott did. Elliott fell short of his quest for a win, but that doesn’t matter to fantasy NASCAR players because he still scored the most fantasy points. (5.8 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
6Ryan Blaney$8,100
7Martin Truex, Jr.$9,500
8Denny Hamlin$8,400
9Aric Almirola$7,500
10Clint Bowyer$7,200

6. Ryan Blaney ($8,100) – The traditional NASCAR superstars will be the favorites to win the All-Star Race, but Blaney should not be overlooked. He has one the fastest cars, but he continuously fails to put together complete races. This race is less than 100 laps. That’s short enough for Blaney to avoid misfortune. (3.9 fppk)

7. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,500) – Every race is unique with the new rules package, but the intermediate tracks have been very similar. Truex’s 2019 wins came at high high horsepower, high downforce tracks that were one mile or shorter in distance. He is no longer an intermediate track darling. (5.5 fppk)

8. Denny Hamlin ($8,400) – The All-Star Race features multiple planned cuations. There is not much room for gamesmanship. Hamlin won at Texas by getting to pit road the fastest during a green flag pit cycle. Green flag pit cycles do not exist in the All-Star Race. (4.3 fppk)

9. Aric Almirola ($7,500) – Track position and a fast car will be key to winning $1 million. Almirola has a fast car, but he’ll need to win the pole. This race is a series of restarts and pole sitters have been quite dominant in position retention in the 2019 package. (3.9 fppk)

10. Clint Bowyer ($7,200) – This is your reminder that Bowyer is not a strong intermediate track driver. His last and only intermediate track win was at Charlotte in 2012. I guess we won’t get to see Bowyer shotgun beers in victory lane this weekend. (4.3 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
11Kurt Busch$8,700
12Daniel Suarez$6,900
13Erik Jones$6,700
14Jimmie Johnson$6,500
15Kyle Larson$7,800

11. Kurt Busch ($8,700) – The No. 1 car has been surprisingly fast and racey this season, but its one weakness is qualifying. It will be very difficult for Kurt to overcome a poor starting position in this 85 lap sprint. (5.2 fppk)

12. Daniel Suarez ($6,900) – Like Larson, Suarez is not locked into the All-Star field. However, it is hard to image that Suarez and Larson do not claim one of the three transfer spots available in the All-Star Open. His questionable status may lead to lower ownership. (5.2 fppk)

13. Erik Jones ($6,700) – Winning a plate race does not elevate a driver to All-Star status, but it does reserve a spot in the All-Star Race. Jones may not be a favorite to win, but a top 5 is within reach and that is all DFS players need from Jones. (4.5 fppk)

14. Jimmie Johnson ($6,500) – Statistics are proof of what has happened, not what will happen. Nowhere is this more evident than in the stats of aging stars. Mark McGwire was a .263 hitter that hit .187 in his final season. Johnson has the most All-Star wins in NASCAR history (4), but that’s history. (3.8 fppk)

15. Kyle Larson ($7,800) – His four race wreck streak ended two weeks ago with a 3rd place finish at Dover. He followed Dover with an 8th place finish at Kansas. Larson looks good and has turned the corner, but this does not look like the old Larson. The rising star has dimmed. (3.8 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
16Alex Bowman$6,300
17Ryan Newman$5,600
18Austin Dillon$5,800
19William Byron$6,000
20Paul Menard$5,400

16. Alex Bowman ($6,300) – His questionable status is the product of being Alex Bowman. He’s never won a race, so he’ll have to race his way in. The good news for Bowman is that over the last two weeks, Bowman has been the fastest among the non-qualified and qualified All-Star drivers. (4.6 fppk)

17. Ryan Newman ($5,600) – It seems strange that Newman is locked into this race and Kyle Larson is not. Newman qualifies for the race because he won the All-Star Race 17 years ago. The implausibility of a Newman win is as believable as his presence in the race. (4.6 fppk)

18. Austin Dillon ($5,800) – Selecting 68 of 750 MLB players for an All-Star Game makes sense. One could argue that an even smaller number are true All-Star. Using that metric (9%), the NASCAR All-Star Race would be a four car field. Unsurprisingly, that’s not how it’s done. Dillon is in the All-Star Race. He is not an All-Star, nor will he win, but he’s cheap because he’s not really an All-Star. (3.7 fppk)

19. William Byron ($6,000) – This is a risky pick. Byron has not qualified for the All-Star Race, and although his car has been fast, he must out race Bowman, Suarez, and Larson to secure a spot in the main event. If Byron does not race his way in, he could sneak in through the fan vote. (4.0 fppk)

20. Paul Menard ($5,400) – No offense to Paul Menard, but he’s not going to win the fan vote. He knows that, but he also knows that his car is capable of winning one of the three All-Star Open stages. His status will not be known until close to lineup lock; this will likely drive down his ownership. (3.7 fppk)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.