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WATCH: NASCAR Price Check — Price Check – Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

1. Kevin Harvick ($10,800) – He was fast at Chicago in clean air, but in traffic, he bounced off the wall. NASCAR bailed Harvick out with a generous caution, but his car was no longer competitive. With nothing to race for, Harvick never tested running the wall at Chicago. (4.5 fppk)

2. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,600) – The championship race is a low-horsepower race. Truex won at Charlotte earlier this season, but his strength in 2019 has been the high-horsepower races. That doesn’t mean Truex can’t win. This race will be decided by the greatest measures of racing skill: goofy restarts and lap traffic. (5.5 fppk)

3. Kyle Busch ($11,400) – It’s been a long time since Busch’s most recent win at Pocono. His car has been good, but not the best. He does not gain ground on the elite cars on pit road. In Busch’s defense, an ill-timed caution cost Busch the lead at Phoenix. A slightly different race script, and Busch could have led every lap. (5.4 fppk)

4. Denny Hamlin ($11,100) – Check the tape. In the summer, I predicted Hamlin would win the 2019 championship, so it’s almost certain Hamlin will not win at Homestead. Hamlin can lead laps, but the win is up for grabs. At the multi-groove intermediate tracks, restarts and lappers have turned these races into mini plate races. (5.2 fppk)

5. Kyle Larson ($10,200) – In the old package, Homestead was Larson’s playground. Most of the field will run the top line, but only Larson runs on the wall. In the high-downforce package, it remains to be seen if Laron’s courage will be rewarded or if everyone can run along the wall safely with the added downforce. (4.2 fppk)

6. Chase Elliott ($9,600) – There is such a thing as using up all of your luck. Elliott won a cutoff race at Charlotte. He finished second in a cutoff race in Kansas while restarts destroyed his competitors. In Round 3 of the playoffs, he did not finish on the lead lap once. (3.8 fppk)

7. Joey Logano ($9,800) – The championship race narrative should not weigh too heavily on DFS players’ minds. In previous seasons, the championship contenders were the best four drivers and were DFS targets. In the 2019 NASCAR equity package, everyone is a contender this weekend. Logano can’t win the championship, but he has a low-horsepower car that is capable of winning the race. (4.4 fppk)

8. Kurt Busch ($9,000) – This has been a typical Kurt Busch season. He earns a random win (Kentucky), earns a top-10 in most races (18 top-10 finishes), and never at any moment does anyone believe he is a championship contender. (4.0 fppk)

9. Brad Keselowski ($9,200) – In the first round of the playoffs, Keselwsoki earned three top-five finishes. Since Charlotte, his average finish is 18th. The most recent race that compares to Homestead’s style of racing is Kansas, and Keselowski was terrible at Kansas. (4.1 fppk)

10. Ryan Blaney ($9,400) – This might have been a disappointing season for Blaney. His only win was at Talladega, and that hardly counts. In the world of DFS, it’s been a different story. Blaney has been in the optimal lineup the second most (10). (4.2 fppk)

11. Erik Jones ($8,600) – The JGR cars have been phenomenal this season. Over the past three months, they have put on a clinic, and Jones has been a part of that dominance. In the most recent intermediate track race, Jones had the third highest driver rating. (3.8 fppk)

12. Alex Bowman ($7,800) – This is a sneaky pick that won’t be sneaky much longer. The most similar track to Homestead is Chicagoland. Bowman won at Chicago and scored the most fantasy points. (4.2 fppk)

13. Ryan Newman ($8,000) – In terms of average running position, Newman ranks 22nd at intermediate tracks this season. That might seem shockingly low, but that’s based on his average running position. Newman always finishes better than where he runs. (4.7 fppk)

14. William Byron ($8,400) – Homestead is comparable to Chicago. In the July Chicago race, all four Hendrick cars finished 11th or better. Byron turned 14 fast laps and finished eighth. (4.4 fppk)

15. Aric Almirola ($7,100) – In the most recent intermediate track race, Almirola finished second. That was at Texas, and it’s not very similar to Homestead. The setups might differ, but recent speed in the low-horsepower package is significant. (3.5 fppk)

16. Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – Who has a better average finish this season: Bowyer or Daniel Suarez? Obviously, it’s Bowyer; he made the playoffs, but it’s closer than most realize. Bowyer’s average finish is 15.4. Suarez’s average finish is 16.5. (3.3 fppk)

17. Jimmie Johnson ($7,900) – It’s been 893 days since his most recent win. That was back in the days of fidget spinners and “Despacito.” We’re more likely to see fidget spinners make a comeback than a Jimmie Johnson win. (3.2 fppk)

18. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,900) – If he doesn’t wreck, he’s a top-15 driver. Stenhouse’s lone strength is finding speed on multi-groove race tracks. The top lane and the bottom lane are open this weekend. At a similar multi groove track in Chicago, Stenhouse finished 12th. (2.9 fppk)

19. Daniel Suarez ($7,400) – This might be his last race. Apparently, Suarez isn’t bringing enough sponsorship to the table, so the No. 41 car will go to the next highest bidder. He won an Xfinity championship at Homestead a couple years ago. Don’t be surprised to see Suarez close out his career on a high note. (3.9 fppk)

20. Chris Buescher ($6,700) – There isn’t an award for best small team driver, but if there were, Buescher would be the winner. His excellence is lost on traditional fans, but DFS NASCAR players respect and appreciate his consistency this season. (4.4 fppk)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.