MLB-Showdown

Tuesday’s MLB Showdown slates feature a choice between three games, Athletics at Indians (6:10 p.m. ET), Reds at Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET), and Diamondbacks at Padres (10:10 p.m. ET). This article will focus on the late game.

Wilmer Flores (foot) was out of the Diamondbacks’ lineup on Monday after being hit by a pitch on Sunday and his status is uncertain for Tuesday’s game.

Editor’s Note: Flores is not in the lineup for tonight’s game.

For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app, as MLB news, injury reports, weather and betting lines on DraftKings Sportsbook can change throughout the day. Value also unexpectedly can open up due to lineup changes, making it important to stay up-to-the-minute with the DK Live app until lineups lock. You can also follow DK Live on Twitter at @DKLive.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.


BETTING TRENDS

— The Diamondbacks have lost 16 of their last 24 games as favorites against National League opponents

— Nine of the last 11 road games for the Diamondbacks have gone OVER the total runs line

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Arizona Diamondbacks

Zack Greinke ($11,000) is on the mound for Arizona in a significant park upgrade in Petco Park, one of the best pitcher’s parks in the major leagues. The Padres have been the game’s most strikeout-prone team, striking out in 27% of their plate appearances, the highest in baseball. San Diego has swung and missed at 12.7% of the pitches they have seen, second highest and chased the 10th-most pitches outside of the strike zone. These characteristics give Greinke, who has a plus strikeout rate of 25%, excellent strikeout upside.

The Padres have also been poor offensively, ranking in the bottom third in wOBA to date and projected runs scored for the rest of the season. Greinke owns an excellent 2.78 ERA, 3.16 FIP and contact quality derived expected wOBA against of .278, which takes into account the exit velocities and angles of the batted balls Greinke has given up to batters. All of these statistics are much better than average. Greinke’s skill level, combined with the park and opponent, makes him a strong candidate to prevent runs and generate strikeouts and is a top player to build fantasy lineups around.

Diamondbacks’ batters are in for a matchup vs. left-handed pitcher Matt Strahm ($9,200). Strahm’s 3.07 ERA and 3.32 FIP are both excellent, although his contact quality metrics are more mediocre. Strahm has allowed batters to produce an expected wOBA of .318 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, which is around the league average of .321.

Strahm’s contact quality metrics do not show a big platoon split this year, but Strahm has large reverse platoon splits for his career, with left-handed batters finding significantly more success than right-handed batters against the left-handed Strahm. However, Staham’s pitch repertoire, which primarily includes a four-seam fastball and slider, does not hint towards this being sustainable long term, and it does not appear that left-handed batters should have a significant edge against Strahm going forward. Normally, reverse platoon splits are seen with changeup heavy pitchers and not slider heavy pitchers, as a slider moves away from a same-sided batter but a changeup moves towards a same-sided batter.

Jarrod Dyson ($10,200) was back in the starting lineup on Monday after a hand injury kept him on the sidelines over the weekend. Dyson is heavily priced due to his speed and leadoff slot, although with a LHP on the mound for San Diego, it’s unlikely Dyson will start today, as Dyson has seen just 14 plate appearances vs. lefties this year. Obviously, if Dyson is not in the starting lineup, he is not a fantasy option, especially given his extreme price tag.

The last time the Diamondbacks faced a LHP, Adam Jones ($9,200) hit leadoff, followed by Ketel Marte ($8,400), Eduardo Escobar ($10,000), David Peralta ($9,800) and Christian Walker ($8,000). Peralta has been significantly less productive vs. lefties and is probably worth avoiding given his platoon splits, which hold true both for his career and this season. Walker and Jones have both produced excellent contact quality off LHP this season and are both solid options.


San Diego Padres

The aforementioned Matt Strahm ($9,200) takes on a Diamondbacks’ offense in pitcher-friendly Petco Park that has struck out less often than average but has poor plate discipline numbers. Arizona has chased the fourth most pitches outside of the strike zone and has swung and missed at more pitches than average. Arizona has been a top-10 offense to date by wOBA, but some projection systems have them scoring fewer runs than average for the rest of the season. Strahm has struck out fewer batters than average and generated fewer swings and misses than average, which caps his strikeout upside, especially given the matchup against a team that hasn’t struck out a lot.

Padres’ batters draw a difficult assignment against Greinke for the reasons mentioned in the Diamondbacks’ section. Greinke is a high-quality pitcher who is pitching in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Of the San Diego batters, Franmil Reyes ($7,800) has made the best contact quality this season and has struck right-handed pitchers very well, producing an expected wOBA of .407 based on the exit velocities and angles of his batted balls, much better than the league average of .321. Reyes’ strong lineup slot at second in the order also boosts his fantasy value.

Other San Diego hitting options include Greg Garcia ($6,000), who has hit leadoff the past two games, giving him a boost in fantasy value provided he bats leadoff again on Tuesday. Manny Machado ($7,600), Eric Hosmer ($6,600), Hunter Renfroe ($8,200) and Wil Myers ($7,200) are also options.


THE OUTCOME

This looks like a low-scoring game given the park, pitcher quality and lack of strong punch in the Padres’ lineup. The Diamondbacks have the edge in the pitching matchup, where Zack Greinke ($16,500 CP) will be in a strong position to prevent runs and generate strikeouts against the team that has been the most prone to striking out this year. Greinke should be prioritized as the Captain’s Pick due to his matchup and skill level.

Final score: Diamondbacks 4, Padres 2


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