After today’s four-game afternoon MLB action, we’ll have an 11 game slate to dig through tonight. Here are some of my top pitchers to consider.
1. Michael Pineda – NYY @ KC – $10,100
Pineda has been an enigma to the advanced stats community for the last couple of seasons. His traditional stats have been unimpressive, while his peripheral stats have suggested that he was a truly elite pitcher that had been unlucky. The tides have changed this season and Pineda is finally starting to live up to his advanced stats. He has a 3.27 ERA largely due to an insane 50/6 strikeout to walk ratio. There is also room for some improvement to Pineda’s game. He is allowing a career-high 24.2% HR/FB rate despite giving up an elite 28.7% hard contact rate. His HR/FB rate should settle at closer to his career average of 12.6%, which would help to lower his ERA to among the league leaders. The Royals have the worst wOBA in the American League against right-handed pitching.
2. Matt Shoemaker – LAA vs CHW – $8,800
Shoemaker has been an extremely high variance pitcher throughout his career. At times he has looked like a potential top of the rotation starter, while at other times he barely looks the part of a professional baseball player. Shoemaker is coming off his best outing of the season, 29.1 DKFP in six shutout innings against a tough Detroit lineup. He hasn’t faced the White Sox yet this season, but he did average 32.85 DKFP per game against them last season. Chicago has a worse offense this year and is ranked 26th with a .295 .wOBA against righties.
3. Kyle Hendricks – CHC vs CIN – $9,100
Hendricks was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season. He finished the year with a 2.13 ERA, which was the best mark of all qualified pitchers. He has had a slow start to 2017 but has been much improved over his last few outings. Many people may look at his game log and not be impressed with his results, but his opponents have to be considered. Hendricks’s last three starts have come at Boston, at home against the Yankees and away at Coors Field. Across these brutal matchups, Hendricks pitched 17 2/3 innings while surrendering just four runs and striking out 18 batters, good for an average of 18.58 DKFP per start. The Reds are not a cake walk of a matchup, but they are easier than what Hendricks has been dealing with recently.
4. Mike Foltynewicz – ATL vs TOR – $7,800
Foltynewicz has had knockout stuff for his entire career, but it hasn’t translated to success at the big league level…yet. However, he does have a career-best 4.04 ERA and he has shown flashes of being a solid pitcher and even been dominant at times. Foltynewicz has gone over 19 DKFP in three of his last four outings. Also encouraging has been his ability to limit opponents to a 29.5% hard contact rating. Due to the raw stuff of Foltynewicz, which includes a 95 MPH fastball and a car breaking slider, now could be a good time to jump on him in hopes that he is beginning to break out. The Blue Jays’ offense has been hitting slightly better lately, but they still just have a .297 .wOBA against righties, which is ranked 25th. They can be targeted until they get their star players back from injury.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.