Major League Baseball gets the week off to a solid start with six games on this Monday. There is a nice mix of value and big-name options on the schedule tonight, but the biggest name of all isn’t No. 1 on my list of top pitchers tonight. Check out who is and why.
1. Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs. TEX – $11,600
Carrasco gets my top spot today as he and the Indians look to bounce back after a tough weekend series. The Tribe welcomes in the Rangers tonight as Carrasco makes his 15th start of the season. So far, he is 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He has piled up 89 strikeouts in his 87.1 innings and is coming off a season-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing.
In that start, he threw six shutout innings against the Orioles on his way to 33.3 DKFP. He has at least 26 DKFP in three of his last four starts, and he picked up a win against Texas earlier this season allowing two runs in 5.2 innings while striking out seven. The only downside to going with Cookie tonight is that he has had his best results on the road (6-1, 2.54 ERA) while he’ll be starting tonight at Progressive Field where he is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA on the season.
2. Chris Sale – BOS vs. MIN– $12,900
Sale slides behind Carrasco as he and the Red Sox host the Twins who have surged back in front of the Indians in the AL Central. Despite all his time in Chicago, Sale has not had much success against the Twins in his career. He is 9-6 against Minnesota with a 4.37 ERA which is his highest against any team which he has at least three games against. Sale did beat Minnesota earlier this year, but it was an ugly win in which he gave up four runs in six innings.
Sale still has a ton of potential to dominate and can rule the night if he’s locked in. He is 5-1 in his seven starts at Fenway while holding opponents to a .188 average and posting a 2.45 ERA. He has 65 strikeouts in his 51.1 innings at home, so he definitely can deliver even at his almost $13K salary. Given the Twins way of getting to him, I have him ranked just behind Carrasco, but he’s still an ace to target tonight.
3. Gio González – WSH vs. CHC – $9,800
My favorite play under $10K tonight is González who is looking to improve to 8-1 as the Nationals welcome in the Cubs to start the week. González has picked up a win in four of his last five starts and is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in June. He has been excellent at home with little to show for it going just 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his seven starts at Nationals Park.
He’s averaging over a strikeout-per-inning at home this season, and he’ll be in a good matchup against the Cubs offense which has struggled away from Wrigley Field and is a bit lefty-heavy. González has held lefties to a .176 average this season, and he is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in five starts against the Cubs over the last three seasons. He has a good shot at a win tonight as the Cubs oppose him with a struggling Eddie Butler.
4. José Berrios – MIN @ BOS – $10,700
In the midst of what looks to be a breakout season, Berrios gets the challenge of going head-to-head with Chris Sale tonight at Fenway Park. Berrios has been impressive since being called up to the majors earlier this season going 7-1 in his eight starts with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last four starts.
Overall, he has been slightly better at home than on the road, but he has been dazzling in almost every situation. He has 53 strikeouts in 54 innings, and he can produce plenty of DKFP when he’s dialed in. The only reason he isn’t higher on the list is the matchup on the road against Boston which I think is a tougher one than Gio’s matchup at home against the Cubs.
5. German Márquez – COL @ SF – $7,500
If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play tonight, my favorite play under $8K is Márquez as he takes the mound in San Francisco for the Rockies. Márquez will be making his first start against San Francisco, but he has posted a strong 3-1 record with a 3.00 ERA away from Coors Field. The Giants offense has struggled all season averaging the second-fewest runs-per-game in the Majors, so Márquez is in a good matchup.
He has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three games and two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight. Márquez doesn’t get enough strikeouts to give him a high ceiling, but he is a solid innings-eating option if you want to go cheap with one of your SP tonight.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Z.Thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.