Wednesday’s 11-game main slate has a number of big names for us to choose from while still sprinkling in enough value to spend down if you’re so inclined. The ‘studs’ don’t have great matchups though, so proceed with caution here. If you have any slate specific questions please ask, you can find me on Twitter @RyNoonan. Let’s dig in.
Top 5 Pitchers
1) Max Scherzer – WSH vs. CWS – $13,300 – The only ace with a good matchup is Max Scherzer. The White Sox are scuffling quite a bit and enter play with a 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and while the ball park isn’t favorable, it’s not enough to keep me away form Max. He’s expensive, but his huge strikeout upside raises his expected floor quite a bit.
2) Noah Syndergaard – NYM vs. PIT – $12,400 – Only Clayton Kershaw and Jose Fernandez have a lower cFIP than Noah Syndergaard’s 59 (100 scale) this season. He’s been THAT good. He’s in play on Wednesday even at $12,400 because of his massive strikeout upside, supported by his 15% swinging-strike rate. It’s worth noting that while Pittsburgh is a top 5 offense in terms of wRC+ and wOBA against righties, the other top offense’s have isolated power rates above .190, while the Pirates sit at just .146.
3) David Price – BOS vs. SF – $9,400 – Pitching in San Francisco is like hitting in Coors Field. We have to consider the pitchers because it’s such a favorable pitching environment and David Price is a guy that typically costs north of $10k. There may not be a ton of strikeout upside here, but I don’t expect a ton of runs from the Giants and I’m sure David Price is happy to get a start against a team other than Toronto (his opponent for his past two outings).
“An elite ground ball rate will help Jaime Garcia navigate The Great American Ballpark”
4) Jaime Garcia – STL vs. CIN – $6,700 – An elite ground ball rate will help Jaime Garcia navigate The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, one of MLB’s smallest and most friendly offensive parks. The Reds are below average against lefties on the season with just a 94 wRC+ and their higher than average strikeout rate gives Garcia a higher floor than we typically see. He’s a great SP2 for cash games.
5) Wei-Yin Chen – MIA vs. MIN – $7,900 – I think you can get away with Garcia and Wei-Yin Chen in cash today. That’s an interesting approach since we have some bigger names on the slate, but just like Garcia, Chen is priced down against a team that struggles against lefties. The Twins 24.5% strikeout rate against southpaws is one of the highest in the league, and their 83 wRC+ is better than just four other teams.
6) Kenta Maeda – LAD vs. COL – $7,500 – Kenta Maeda hasn’t been quite as good as his 2.84 ERA would lead you to believe, but he’s been solid in his debut state-side. An 11.7% swinging-strike rate should yield more whiffs than his current 7.96 K/9, and the Rockies are not nearly as dangerous outside of Colorado’s thin air. I’d prefer Garcia and Chen in a similar pricing tier, but I wouldn’t fault you for looking at Maeda.
7) Madison Bumgarner – SF vs. BOS – $11,600 – The Red Sox are the best offense in the league this season, and their performance against lefties has been particularly dominant. They enter play with a 134 wRC+ and a .376 wOBA, and both totals are miles away from their closest competitor. With that as the backdrop, it’s difficult to pay the $11,600 for Madison Bumgarner here, especially when his counterpart is in a better matchup and is $2,200 less.
“I know, he’s Ricky Nolasco, but hear me out… He’s been better than you think”
8) Ricky Nolasco – MIN vs. MIA – $6,900 – I know, he’s Ricky Nolasco, but hear me out… He’s been better than you think. With a 91 cFIP and 3.50 DRA you get a clearer picture than the story that his 4.93 ERA tells. His 59% strand rate is incredibly unlucky, considering league average is around 75% most years. He’s not walking anyone, and his 8.22 K/9 is backed up with a 10% swinging-strike rate. The Marlins aren’t world beaters either, with a 93 wRC+ on the season.
9) Nathan Eovaldi – NYY vs. LAA – $7,700 – The Angels’ league-low 15.6% strikeout rate caps Nathan Eovaldi’s upside quite a bit, but I still think he’s worth a look if you are making a few different rosters. He’s about a half run better than his 4.09 ERA and his arsenal is exceptional when he’s on, making you think that better strikeout numbers could be on the way.
10) Chris Tillman – BAL vs. KC – $7,600 – After a strong but steady climb in both performance and DraftKings salary this season, Chris Tillman is now on the other side of the wave. He’s been hit pretty hard lately and I don’t love him since he’s pitching in the hitter friendly Camden Yards. If you are looking at Royals here you can consider their right-handed bats solid tournament plays since Tillman has strong reverse splits (He’s worse against righties).