Today’s targets will focus on the six-game slate tonight, which features non-elite starting pitching options and a potential Padres stack, if that tells you anything about the slate. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
CC Sabathia – NYY vs. TBR – $8,700 – Sabathia has quietly become a very dependable play and, even though his price has risen accordingly, he’s great here at home against the Rays, who have dropped below 6% walk rate while keeping their K-rate above 22%. Sabathia’s K-rate has jumped to 27% over the past 30 days and the Rays have some major strikeout guys in the back of their projected lineup (Souza -41%, Franklin -29%, Wilson -27%).
Ivan Nova – PIT vs. CIN – $9,800 – The Reds are bottom five in road wRC+ and Nova has been very control-savvy over the past 30 days, where he’s dropped his walk rate to 1.7%. Nova and PIT are favorites on an eight run expected total, leaving the Reds with an implied 3.6 runs, one of the lowest totals on the slate.
Clayton Richard – SDP vs. COL – $4,700 – Richard is not a great pitcher, with his walk rate well into double digits. However, the Rockies are not strong on the road against LHP, the game is in San Diego, and Richard has been not-gas-can over the past 30 days. His SIERA is 4.20 and his HR rate is 0.70, leaving him looking at value if he can make it through 5 IP, which he’s done in his last four starts.
Ryan Schimpf (2B) – SD vs. COL – $4,300 – Great matchup for the Padres as a whole, but specifically Schimpf, who has a .370 ISO against RHP this season. The Padres are facing COL SP Hoffman, who has struggled in his first two starts and will see a LH heavy lineup tonight.
Randal Grichuk (OF) – STL vs. MIL – $4,600 – Grichuk has a .366 ISO in 76 at-bats since August 1st against RHP, and he’s homered seven times over the past two weeks.
Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA vs. TEX – $4,800 – Cruz facing a lefty at home was money last season, but was slow going this season, but since July 1, Cruz has raised this split by a wRC+ of 169 and TEX SP Holland has an xFIP of 6.20 against RH bats on the road.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL vs. MIL – $4,400 – I’m expecting significant ownership coming here for Carp with this salary/slate, who has a 148 wRC+ and .271 ISO against RHP this season. MIL SP Guerra has been giving up 39% hard contact against LH bats this season as well.
Gregory Polanco (OF) – PIT vs. CIN – $4,600 – CIN SP Dan Straily has pitched better than expected this season, but still has a blind spot regarding LH bats, where he’s given up a 5.73 xFIP and seen his walk rate spike to 13.8%. Polanco has a 134 wRC+ against RHP at home this season.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – TEX at SEA – $4,200 – You used to be able to trust that SEA SP Taijuan Walker would be good at home, despite any struggles on the road. This has changed over his last couple of starts there, where he’s compiled a 6.83 xFIP and has struggled to miss bats, with only a 10% K-rate over that span as well. This is a bad omen against a Rangers team that has five bats with a 40% or higher hard contact rate over the past two weeks. Included in that is Beltran, who should be batting third tonight.
Nolan Arenado (3B) – COL at SD – $5,300 – Not a sexy matchup here in San Diego, but if there is anybody to target against SD SP Richard, it’s Arenado, who has been making hard contact at a 40% rate over the past two weeks.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS vs. PHI – $4,300 – Werth has four home runs vs. RHP in the last two weeks and is batting second in the slate’s highest implied run total (5.1). With Trea Turner hitting in front of him and Bryce Harper behind him, I like Werth in a split that he’s not known for.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA vs. TEX – $3,500 – Nelson Cruz Lite is a LHP smashing bat that has a .247 ISO against LHP this season. The Mariners have an implied 4.5 run total, which is actually the second highest total on the slate at this time.
Travis Jankowski (OF) – SD vs. COL – $3,600 – Already mentioned the positive matchup against COL SP Hoffman, but Jankowski has a surprising 185 wRC+ against RHP at home in 51 at-bats since August 1st.
Matt Adams (1B) – STL vs. MIL – $3,400 – Adams has the positive split against MIL SP Guerra and has been making hard contact, with a 50% hard contact rate since getting back into the lineup.
Matt Joyce (OF) – PIT vs. CIN – $3,600 – See Greg Polanco above for the struggles Dan Straily has against LH bats, and consider that Joyce has a 189 wRC+ and .339 ISO against RHP at home this season.
Nomar Mazara (OF) – TEX at SEA – $3,700 – I mentioned Taijuan Walker’s struggles and the Rangers hot bats, and none have made more hard contact over the past two weeks than Mazara, who is at 48% and should be leading off against Walker.
Yangervis Solarte (3B) – SD vs. COL – $3,700 – One last Padre here, though you can make the case for others not listed here, but Solarte has the splits in his favor here and a 40% hard contact rate over the past two weeks.
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