Happy Monday! There’s a healthy 10-game slate, so let’s shake off whatever happened over the weekend (I won’t say anything), get our studs and values identified and try to get to winner’s circle tonight. Let’s do this!
Dallas Keuchel – HOU vs. MIN – $9,900 – Keuchel is a ground ball maniac (60%), a heavy favorite (-175), is going against a 3.5 expected run total for his opponent and a 23% HH rate against him this season.
Johnny Cueto – SF @ CIN – $10,800 – Cueto revenge game in a park he’s had a lot of success in (.653 OPS), facing the third lowest team wOBA on the slate and is a strong -155 road favorite with a 3.4 expected runs against total. The Reds have been the worst offense over the last 14 days, with a 54 RC+ and .264 wOBA over that span.
Jon Gray – COL @ SD – $7,900 – Gray has potentially dominant stuff (95.4 avg velocity), and the Padres can be dominated (26% K-rate, 7th worse in RC+, last 14 days). Gray is a slight underdog on the road (+111), but the game total is still a manageable 7.5 overall, and Petco is still a top 10 park for pitchers.
Bartolo Colon – NYM vs. ATL – $6,700 – Colon is facing a seven run game total where the Mets are a -200 favorite. The reason? The Braves are still offering a paltry .264 wOBA and 59 RC+ over the last 14 days, second worse in the league over that span.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. TEX – $4,500 – I love the Jays stack tonight, and I’m sure I won’t be alone as the Jays have the highest expected run total tonight (5.0). Also, players have been discounted, even at home, so Donaldson, who has had a 42% HH rating, 57% fly ball rate over his last two weeks and a .385 wOBA against RHP is a great value at $4.5K.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS @ KC – $5,100 – Even at $5.1K, Harper still looks like value, with his .487 wOBA vs. RHP, 40+% fly ball rate and 93 mph exit velocity for the season.
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM vs. ATL – $4,500 – Granderson has a great vs. RHP wOBA (.387), excellent fly ball rate/hard hit factors (47%/42%) and leads off for a 4.2 expected run total team against Mike Foltynewicz, who has a lifetime .411 wOBA against LH bats.
Colby Rasmus (OF) – HOU vs. MIN – $3,800 – Astros, at home, have a 4.7 expected run total against rookie RHP Berrios. Rasmus has a .350 wOBA against RHP and strong power metrics (169 expected power on a 100 average scale, 50% fly ball rate).
Matt Carpenter (3B) – STL vs. PHL – $4,200 – Jeremy Hellickson has been giving up hard contact this season (33%), and Carpenter has been one of the leaders in hard contact (36% for the season) and power (93 mph exit velocity).
“Carpenter has been one of the leaders in hard contact . . .”
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR vs. TEX – $4,100 – Moar Jays? Bautista is so low priced for a .400 wOBA against RHP and elite power metrics (184 expected power, 47% fly ball rate, 93 mph exit velocity).
Michael Conforto (OF) – NYM vs. ATL – $3,800 – Going against ATL SP Foltynewicz, who has a .411 wOBA against LH bats, Conforto fits in tonight with his .403 wOBA against RHP and 94 mph exit velocity and 52% hard hit factor over his last two weeks.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR vs. TEX – $3,800 – Last of the stud Jays, Encarnacion has a .405 wOBA vs. RHP, .582 SLG and a 47% hard hit factor over his last two weeks.
Justin Smoak (1B) – TOR vs. TEX – $2,700 – Smoak also has a strong hard hit factor (36% for the season) and has added getting the ball more in the air recently (60+% fly ball rate, 252 avg distance).
Brandon Moss (1B/OF) – STL vs. PHL – $3,400 – Love Moss’ power, with a 204 expected power rating and nearly 50% fly ball rate for the season, and Hellickson giving up 1.54 HR/9 IP. As long as Moss gets the ball at first base, he’s a great target to launch.
Mitch Moreland (1B) – TEX @ TOR – $3,500 – The other side of the Rogers Centre matchup is Texas (4.1 expected runs) and Moreland has a .375 wOBA against RHPs (Dickey). Moreland’s been solid with a 91 mph exit velocity and 35% hard hit factor for the season.
Michael Saunders (OF) – TOR vs. TEX – $3,300 – Saunders is the last of our five run expected Blue Jays, leading off, typically, against RHP and enjoying a .376 wOBA vs. RHP.
“Coghlan loves RHP . . .”
Chris Coghlan (2B/3B) – OAK @ SEA – $3,000 – Coghlan loves RHP, with a .348 wOBA vs. RHP and rocking a 92 mph exit velo, 47% hard hit factor and 48% fly ball rate over his last two weeks. He enjoyed a .408 wOBA and .973 OPS against RHP away from Wrigley last season as well.
Ryan Howard (1B) – PHL @ STL – $3,400 – A favorite tourney play due to his still-existent power vs. RHP. He has a 199 expected power rating, massive 40% hard hit factor this season and solid .340 wOBA vs. RHP.