Happy Monday! There’s a solid eight-game slate, so let’s shake off whatever happened over the weekend (I won’t say anything), get our studs and values identified and try to get back to the winner’s circle tonight. Let’s do this!
Jordan Zimmermann – DET vs. MIN – $10,300 – You probably want to pay down today for SP, but if you are inclined to spend you are left with Zimmermann. Zimm lacks the K-upside for a prime tourney play, feels solid for cash games. Minnesota has the sixth worst wOBA on the road and they are bottom ten against RHP. Zimmermann has a .269 wOBA against RHB as well.
Kenta Maeda – LAD vs. LAA – $9,700 – The Angels don’t whiff enough against RHP to make Maeda a huge upside play (16% K-rate), but Maeda is a favorite to win. The Angels, despite their contact are still ninth-worst against RHP.
Adam Conley – FLA @ PHL – $8,200 – Conley got roughed up his last time out, but it was the second time around with the Brewers. Tonight it’s the Phillies who are the fourth worst wOBA against LHP with a 24% K-rate. Conley has a 11% K-rate and over a K per inning.
Jonathon Niese – PIT vs. ATL – $5,800 – If I just looked at the numbers and not the name, I wouldn’t flinch here. The Braves are dead last both on the road and against LHP, with wOBAs of .259 and .232 respectively. However, Niese only has a 7% swinging strike rate and a 4.47 SIERA, but the matchup is there along with major cost savings.
Josh Donaldson (3B) TOR vs. TB – $4,300 – Unreal price for a guy who has been steady with his performance all season. Josh has a .442 wOBA and .354 ISO against LHP.
Adrian Beltre (3B) TEX @ OAK – $4,100 – Not a great park in which to hit, but a .395 wOBA/.212 ISO against LHP for Beltre coupled with OAK SP Sean Manaea giving up 3 HR per 9 IP so far in his young career.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) ARI vs. NYY – $4,800 – Goldy is starting to come around, with a 162 expected power rating (100 is average) over his last ten games. Goldy is at home and facing Chad Green (RHP).
Corey Seager (SS) – LAD vs. LAA – $4,400 – Tabbed him last week and he hasn’t stopped hitting yet, bringing a .383 wOBA/.203 ISO into this matchup with Matt Shoemaker, who has a .328 wOBA against LH bats and a 5.68 SIERA on the season.
Evan Longoria (3B) – TB @ TOR – $4,200 – The Rays have had some success against TOR SP J.A. Happ, with an .878 OPS for the combined current roster. Longoria carries a 1.000+ OPS against Happ plus a .375 wOBA and a .241 ISO against LHP overall.
Gregory Polanco (OF) – PIT vs. ATL – $4,500 – Polanco has a solid .345 wOBA and .157 ISO against RHP, but ATL SP Williams Perez helps that with a .373 wOBA of his own against LH bats.
Christian Yelich (OF) – MIA @ PHL – $4,600 – Yelich doesn’t have that double dong upside, but he has been making very hard contact, yielding a .375 wOBA against RHP and a solid 145/145 expected power/hard hit rating over his last 10 games. MIA goes against RHP Jerad Eickhoff, who has a .371 wOBA against LH bats this season.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. KC – $5,300 – It may make sense to spend up with Papi, considering his .436 wOBA and .367 ISO against RHP. Also, KC SP Yordano Ventura has a 5.75 SIERA, throws hard but doesn’t miss bats (7% over last four starts).
Michael Saunders (OF) – TOR vs. TB – $3,200 – Tourney play here as TB SP Drew Smyly is tough (.265 wOBA) on LH bats, but Saunders counters with a .419 wOBA and .324 ISO against them and has been batting middle of the order even in the LH/LHP split games.
Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET vs. MIN – $3,900 – Looking at a sub 4K Miggy, going against a rookie SP (Berrios) giving up 2.553 HR/9 IP, this is a prime matchup. Cabrera has a .386 wOBA against RHP and a 154 expected power rating over his last seven games.
Byung-ho Park (1B) – MIN @ DET – $3,600 – We’ve been on him all season and he finally blew it out last week giving him an elite 180 expected power rating for the season. Zimmermann has given up over a homer per nine innings and Park, with a .388/.358 wOBA/ISO split against RHP, has a great chance to make the longbow happen tonight.
“…All he does is hit home runs…”
Jarrod Saltalamacchia © – DET vs. MIN – $3,000 – All he does is hit home runs, so if he’s in the lineup, with his .254 ISO vs. RHP, against the aforementioned SP Berrios, he’s a high upside catcher play.
Steve Pearce (1B/2B) – TB @ TOR – $3,100 – Steve Pearce at 2B, for 3.1K against JA Happ (3HR, 24 AB, 4 DK points per AB) has to be the BvP play of the day. Toss in a .246 ISO vs. LHP and I’m a buyer tonight.
JD Martinez (OF) – DET vs. MIN – $3,600 – Crazy how many elite power bats are priced below 4K today, but JD has a crazy 233 expected power rating, putting him in good position to take advantage of Berrios.
Juan Centeno © – MIN @ DET – $2,000 – One more bonus line for punt catchers as Centeno, a LH bat, goes against RHP Zimmermann (.322 wOBA vs. LH bats)– Centeno has come up with hard contact, sporting a 205/218 expected power/hard hit meter in his first 15 at-bats (definitely small sample alert here).