Wednesday night brings a strong 11-game slate with a lot of top pitching options and high game totals. Let’s filter through all the information and get our top studs and values tonight. Who to choose between Noah, Darvish, Scherzer, Bumgarner and Price? Which bats can we fit in to get one of those studs in the lineup? Let’s get to it!
Noah Syndergaard – NYM @ PIT – $12,400 – It’s tough to pick at the top tonight, parsing between these aces, but both SF and BOS mash LHP, leaving me looking at the other two guys. Noah has been Kershaw-like good over the last month, with a 31.5% K-rate with only a 2.7% walk rate and a 2.27 SIERA (which estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate). Pittsburgh has a good wOBA, but lacks power, being in the bottom ten in vs. RHP and home ISO.
Max Scherzer – WAS vs. CWS – $13,300 – I love Max as a tourney play, as there are so many options below him on the pay scale and some of his blowups have really burned players this season. He has been second to only Jose Fernandez in K-rate over the past 30 days (36.5%) and has a lower-than-his-ERA 2.60 SIERA over that span as well. The White Sox are fourth worst in wOBA and ISO against RHP, with a 21% K-rate to boot.
Kenta Maeda – LAD vs. COL – $7,500 – I’m going back with the projected run total again, though the Rockies vs. RHP bats got to Bolsinger last time out. This game has a 3.3 implied run total on the Rockies tonight, and Maeda has been a crusher vs. LH bats, with a .260 wOBA this season.
Taijuan Walker – SEA vs. CLE – $6,800 – He’s inconsistent for sure, but this is a surprisingly positive matchup for him, in Seattle, against an Indians team in the bottom five in road wOBA, with a 23.6% K-rate as well. Walker has been significantly better at home this season, with a 23.4% K-rate and .295 wOBA, compared to a 13.6%/.376 away from home.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF) – MIA @ MIN – $4,200 – I’m making this happen, dang it, with Stanton rocking hard hit metrics but getting a .100 BABIP (measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits) over his last seven games to show for it. He hit balls at 102 and 118(!) Tuesday night but had nothing to show for it. Ready to explode.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – NYY vs. LAA – $4,300 – Beltran continues his heavy hitting, with a strong 194/207 expected power/hard hit number (100 is average for each). His matchup is against Jered Weaver, who has a .341 wOBA against LH bats and gives up 1.56 HR/9 IP. The game is in Yankee Stadium, tops for HRs this season so far and the Yankees have a 5.5 implied run total tonight.
Matt Adams (1B) – STL @ CIN – $3,900 – Another day, another tremendous matchup against the Reds in Cincinnati, this time with gas can Alfredo Simon and his .382 wOBA against LH bats to face. Adams has been great over his past 70 at-bats, with a 146 expected power rating. This season, Adams has a .383 wOBA against RHP and is the most affordable of the Cards in the top half of their lineup.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL vs. KC – $4,200 – Davis homered Tuesday night and has a .426/.350 wOBA/ISO split against RHP. Edinson Volquez is average, wOBA-wise against LH/RH bats (~.310), but the Orioles have an implied 4.7 runs tonight in Baltimore.
“It’s hard to ignore what Nunez has been doing…”
Eduardo Nunez (3B/SS) – MIN @ MIA – $4,200 – It’s hard to ignore what Nunez has been doing, racking up a 172 expected power rating over his last 130 at bats, and he’s batting first in a Twins lineup with a 4.5 implied run total.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS vs. CWS – $4,600 – Harper has a .444/.303 wOBA/ISO split against RHP and new White Sox SP Shields has a .372 wOBA against LH bats. Shields has also given up 1.256 HR/9 IP this season.
Danny Valencia (3B) – OAK @ MIL – $4,500 – Great tourney option at an elevated price, but in a good spot vs. MIL SP Anderson, who has a high reverse split of .350 against RH bats. Valencia, if he plays today, has a strong 204 expected power over his last 15 at-bats and a .380 wOBA against RHP himself.
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL vs. OAK – $3,700 – Carter has great reverse splits against RHP, with a .287 ISO against righties. He had been an unfortunate slugger as of late, with high expected power (179 for the season), but not as much to show for it until a 2-HR game yesterday. The Brewers have a 4.7 implied run total tonight against OAK SP Hahn.
Trayce Thompson 9OF) – LAD vs. COL – $3,500 – Thompson has a .405/.299 wOBA/ISO split against LHP, and COL SP Rusin has a .358 wOBA against RH bats. The Dodgers have an implied team total of 4.5 runs tonight as well.
Brian McCann (Catch) – NYY vs. LAA – $3,600 – Beginning to pick up the power stroke, with a 200+ expected power rating (100 is average) and the aforementioned excellent matchup against Jered Weaver tonight.
Hyun-Soo Kim (OF) – BAL vs. KC – $3,500 – Cash game play here, as Kim doesn’t rock the power game, but has a strong .421 wOBA against RHP and has been batting second in an Oriole lineup that has that implied 4.7 runs tonight.
Enrique Hernandez (OF) – LAD vs. COL – $3,200 – Kiké had slowed down, but has picked up the power pace lately, with a 136 expected power rating over his last 15 at-bats and his usual leadoff spot against a weak LHP, COL SP Rusin.
Robbie Grossman (OF) – MIN vs. MIA – $2,800 – He’s on quite a run, with a 174 expected power over his last 25 at-bats and a move up the Twins lineup against LHP. He’s got a .498/.348 wOBA/ISO split this season against LHP, and MIA SP Wei-Jin Chen has a .339 wOBA against RH bats and gives up 1.218 HR/9 IP as well.
“Chris Young against a LHP is fire, with a .411/.211 wOBA/ISO split”
Chris Young (OF) – BOS @ SF – $2,400 – Chris Young against a LHP is fire, with a .411/.211 wOBA/ISO split. The price drop comes against MadBum, but a player with his prolific power, especially against LHP, is worth a tourney flyer at this price. He’s also rocked a 249 expected power over the last two weeks.