With a full day of games going today, we have plenty of targets for Sunday baseball. This article will cover the entire day. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Steven Matz – NYM vs. MIL – $10,700 – While I don’t hate the matchup at all for either Jon Lester and Danny Salazar, getting Matz at $10,700 against the Brewers is a matchup I want to jump all over. The Brewers are average against lefties this season, owning a .316 wOBA with a .388 SLG to go along with a 22.4 K%. Matz is coming off two mediocre starts against the White Sox and Pirates, where he wasn’t able to go deep in either game. Matz has faced the Brewers already this season, going seven innings allowing two runs on three hits with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. Matz has been fantastic this season and I don’t think these past two starts really are a true indication of how well he’s been pitching overall.
Jon Lester – CHC vs. ATL – $13,400 – I personally hate this price for Lester. The way I look at it, if I’m paying over $13K for a pitcher, his name better be Clayton Kershaw and I’m expecting an automatic 30 fantasy points. That being said, facing the Braves I’m willing to make an exception. Lester has been fantastic over his past three starts, averaging 35.1 FPPG over that span. The Braves are a horrific offense to begin with, but it gets even worse when they face a left-handed pitcher. Expect Lester to be highly owned across the board today.
Wade Miley – SEA vs. TEX – $4,900 – Ok so full disclosure before I start here, I’m not fully sold on this pick. However, I do have some positive signs that landed me here. First and foremost, Miley hasn’t been bad enough to be $4,900. That seems a bit excessive in my opinion to be priced this low, so that in itself is a value. Second, he’s pitched much better at home than he has on the road. Averaging 17.8 FPPG at home over his 8.7 FPPG on the road. He’s faced this Rangers team twice already and it was in the first two starts of the season where he had mixed results. In those two starts, Miley pitched 12 innings allowing 11 runs on 17 hits with a 14:0 K:BB ratio. The strikeout potential is certainly here with this team and pitching at home will give Miley a boost. I think it’s a sneaky play today, but one I COMPLETELY understand if you don’t agree with.
Adam Duvall (OF) – CIN vs. OAK – $5,300 – Duvall has been a machine for the Reds this season. Coming into this game against Kendall Graveman, Duvall is hitting .264 with 17 home runs, 41 RBIs and averaging 8.4 FPPG. Duvall has been smashing the ball even more so lately, hitting four home runs in his past 10 games. With this matchup at home, where Duvall has hit 10 of his 17 home runs, he should be in a great spot against the struggling Graveman. On the road, Graveman is allowing a .495 wOBA against righties with a .782 SLG and six home runs.
Xander Bogaerts (SS) – BOS vs. MIN – $5,500 – What more can be said about Bogaerts other than the fact that he’s been a beast this season? Hitting .358 with eight home runs, 43 RBIs and averaging 10.7 FPPG, Bogaerts gets a matchup right in his wheelhouse, a lefty. Facing Pat Dean, who is allowing a .371 wOBA with a .525 SLG and four home runs, Bogaerts has been crushing left-handed pitching. With a .473 wOBA and a .677 SLG against lefties, Bogaerts is quickly becoming a premier option at such a thin position like shortstop. Oh, it certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s averaging 12.2 FPPG over his last ten games either.
Evan Longoria (3B) – TBR vs. HOU – $5,500 – Longoria rewarded us last night with 16 fantasy points, clubbing a solo home run and drawing a walk. He faces off with Dallas Keuchel this afternoon, who is showing signs of breaking out of his season long slump. However, Keuchel faces one of the top teams against lefties in the Rays. On the season, Longoria owns a .373 wOBA against lefties along with a .509 SLG. Keuchel has really been hit hard by righties this season, owning a .358 wOBA that jumps up to .389 on the road.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – ARZ vs. MIA – $5,100 – Overall, it’s safe to say that Goldschmidt is having a disappointing season. However, it looks as if he’s turning it around as of late and faces left-handed pitcher Adam Conley today. Against lefties this season, Goldy owns a .423 wOBA and a .509 SLG. It gets even better at home, as that wOBA jumps to .542 with a .786 SLG. For what it’s worth, Conley has been good against righties this season, but Goldy is one of the exceptions that I would still play against him.
*Miguel Cabrera (1B) – DET vs. NYY – $4,400 * – Only $4,400 for Cabrera, sign me up. He faces off against Michael Pineda today. Pineda is still recovering from getting shelled earlier this season. He’s pitched better as of late, even against this Tigers team, but this game takes place in Yankee Stadium, which is a game changer. Even in a “cool down” phase for Cabrera, he owns a .409 wOBA against righties with a .589 SLG. Pineda has been shelled at home against righties, owning a .417 wOBA with a .636 SLG and seven of his 13 home runs allowed.
Derek Norris (CATCH) – SPD vs. COL – $4,300 – Grabbing a player at this price playing in Coors Field is never something to be upset about. Norris, for as bad as he’s been this season, is starting to come back around. Over his past 10 games, Norris is averaging 8.5 FPPG going 12-34 in the process, with two home runs, six RBIs, and five runs. The Rockies are sending rookie Tyler Anderson to the mound today, so I have to believe nerves will be a factor for Anderson.
Chris Young – BOS vs. MIN – $3,500 – Young has been crushing the ball lately, but you’d never know it from his salary. On the season, Young is hitting .290 with five home runs 14 RBIs and averaging 5.9 FPPG. Not that great, right? But if we look at his past ten games, Young is 12-35 with four home runs, eight RBIs, and seven runs scored, for an average of 11.8 FPPG. He faces off against left-handed pitcher Pat Dean today, which plays right into his strengths. Against lefties, Young owns a .513 wOBA with a .344 ISO and a .750 SLG.
Brian Dozier (2B) – MIN vs. BOS – $3,800 – Dozier has been hitting much better as of late, hitting .350 in the month of June over 10 games. During that span, Dozier has hit two home runs with four doubles with a .435 wOBA. He faces Rick Porcello, who is really struggling against right-handed bats, especially on the road. Porcello owns a .421 wOBA with a .640 SLG in that situation this season. Dozier should easily go overlooked and hopefully we can benefit in this matchup.
Chris Herrmann (CATCH) – ARZ vs. MIA – $3,200 – It’s not easy to figure out if Herrmann will be starting on a particular day (thank goodness for late swap), but if he does draw the start today he is in a great spot. A lefty on lefty matchup against Adam Conley should get him in the lineup, as he’s been great in that situation. Herrmann owns a .437 wOBA against lefties this season that jumps to .586 at Chase Field. With Conley owning a .366 wOBA against lefties this season, Herrmann would be a great salary saver today.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. TOR – $4,000 – $4,000 for a player that has hit 20 home runs on the season and is averaging 12.2 FPPG over his last ten games is not a steep price to pay. Granted, his matchup isn’t ideal against Aaron Sanchez, but I have a hard time passing Trumbo up at his price. Sanchez has been fantastic against righties this season, holding them to a .258 wOBA with one home run allowed. The numbers are certainly against Trumbo in this matchup, but getting him at this price and potentially low ownership could end up paying off if Sanchez falters.