We have a seven-game main slate tonight, and it’s a good one. It’s unusual to have five pitchers priced above $10,000 on a small slate, but you can make them fit since bats appear to be priced down across the board. Lots to unpack here so let’s get to it. The best place for last minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there @RyNoonan. Let’ dig in.
Chris Sale – BOS vs. TB – $13,300 – Chris Sale has been everything that Red Sox fans could want, and more. He’s the runaway favorite for the A.L. Cy Young Award if the season were to end today, and he’s in a great spot on Thursday night against the free-swinging Rays. Sale’s strikeout upside is unmatched, and Tampa Bay has struck out 24.5% of the time against lefties so far this season. Sale is a difficult fade in cash games.
Other Options – Rich Hill ($10,200), Jose Berrios ($9,600)
Josh Tomlin – CLE vs. SD – $6,400 – I don’t love the pitcher, but I definitely love the spot here. Josh Tomlin hasn’t hit double-digit DraftKings points in any of his three previous starts, but he’s a viable SP2 in cash games against a Padres club that whiffs 25.3% of the time against right-handed pitching and enters play with an 83 wRC+ against RHP on the season, good for 28th in the league.
Other Options – Paul Blackburn ($4,700)
Evan Gattis – HOU vs. TOR – $4,200 – I typically don’t spend up at catcher unless said catcher is a part of a stack. With that said, the Astros are in play as a stack option tonight and Evan Gattis has the best upside on the slate at the position. He’ll likely hit cleanup on the road here against Francisco Liriano, and he’s a notorious lefty-masher since he debuted.
Other Options – Austin Barnes ($3,800)
Bruce Maxwell – OAK vs. SEA – $2,500 – This is more my flavor. The left-handed Bruce Maxwell will likely get the call for the A’s tonight on the road against Sam Gaviglio and the Mariners and could find himself hitting 5th or 6th. He’s a viable punt in both cash and tournaments.
Other Options – Russell Martin ($2,600)
Paul Goldschmidt – ARI vs. LAD – $4,900 – Recent form will probably lead many to roster Rich Hill tonight, which will make Paul Goldschmidt an interesting tournament option at what will likely be a reduced ownership percentage. The steadiness of Goldschmidt’s production is incredible, so getting him at a rare sub-$5K price tag is something that I’ll want to do.
Other Options – Edwin Encarnacion ($4,500), Yonder Alonso ($4,000)
Yulieski Gurriel – HOU vs. TOR – $3,600 – Over the past two weeks Yulieski Gurriel has a hard-hit contact rate of 50% and 11 hits over his past four games. Despite the torrid pace, his price has remained virtually the same, and his spot in the lineup has kept his ownership in check. Get in while the gettin’ is good.
Other Options – Mitch Moreland ($3,300)
Daniel Murphy – WAS vs. ATL – $5,000 – Recency bias will be in play here, as Braves’ starter Mike Foltynewciz dazzled last time out, nearly no-hitting the A’s in Oakland. While I doubt many will roster Foltynewciz here against the Nationals, I’m willing to bet we’ll see the Washington bats go rather under-owned. Sign me up for those left-handed power bats, as Foltynewciz has exploitable splits against lefties over the course of his career.
Other Options – Robinson Cano ($4,800), Jose Altuve ($5,200)
Jason Kipnis – CLE vs. SD – $3,500 – The Indians have the slate’s highest implied-team total, so getting their leadoff hitter for just $3,500 seems like a good idea, particularly in cash games. He missed Wednesday’s contest with a stiff neck but it’s likely that he’ll return to the top of the order on Thursday night.
Other Options – Brandon Phillips ($2,900), Jed Lowrie ($3,600)
Miguel Sano – MIN vs. BAL – $4,700 – Miguel Sano is always a popular play against lefties, but the young Twins’ slugger has been just as deadly against right-handed pitching over his career. He’s in a great spot here against a fly ball pitcher Dylan Bundy, who’s allowed 69% of the contact against him to be either a line drive or fly ball.
Other Options – Jose Ramirez 2B/3B ($4,600)
Manny Machado – BAL vs. MIN – $3,800 – This is a difficult spot for the right-handed heavy Baltimore lineup as they’re up against Jose Berrios who’s been death to righties this season, but I can’t ignore this price point for Machado. His .223 BABIP sticks out like a sore thumb, and I’ll continue to look for that to correct itself for as long as he’s under $4,000.
Other Options – Kyle Seager ($3,700)
Jean Segura – SEA vs. OAK – $4,500 – Few shortstops have the tournament upside of Jean Segura, due to his ability to flash surprising power and swipe bags. His reverse splits will play well here tonight, leading off against Paul Blackburn and the A’s.
Other Options – Carlos Correa ($5,100)
Francisco Lindor – CLE vs. SD – $3,900 – Francisco Lindor’s hard-hit rate for the season is 32%, but over the past two weeks it’s been 44% but his price is going in the opposite direction. That’s an opportunity for us here tonight. As noted above with Jason Kipnis, the Indians have the slate’s highest implied-team total so getting the top of the order at a suppressed price is great.
Other Options – Stephen Drew ($2,800)
Bryce Harper – WAS vs. ATL – $5,300 – I’m doubling down on my Daniel Murphy blurb and hoping that people will be off of the Nationals’ bats tonight against Mike Foltynewicz. As always, Bryce Harper is crushing right-handed pitching this season with a .389 wOBA and when Foltynewciz gets hit, he gets hit hard. His 14% soft-contact rate is one of the lowest marks on the slate.
Other Options – George Springer ($5,000), Khris Davis ($4,700)
Michael Brantley – CLE vs. SD – $3,900 – The top three bats for Cleveland are all under $4,000 but again, they have the slate’s highest implied-team total. Have I mentioned that yet?
Other Options – Matt Joyce ($3,200), Bradley Zimmer ($3,700)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.