Happy Independance Day! We’ve got a lot of action today, and these targets will focus on the 1:10 slate (10 games), so let’s find our studs and our values and get right to it! Fire it up!
Any questions please feel free to hit me up on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Carlos Martinez – STL vs. PIT – $8,900 – Martinez gets the Pirates, who are 25th in wOBA and wRC+ over the last 14 days, with a 23.4% K-rate. Martinez, meanwhile, has a solid 3.65 SIERA over his last five starts, with a 62% ground ball rate while keeping the ball in the park all season, with a 0.503 HR/9 IP rate. Also, the Cardinals are big favorites, and the Pirates have only a 3.6 implied run total for the game.
Kyle Hendricks – CHC vs. CIN – $10,400 – Hendricks, who has a 9.9 K/9 over his last six starts, gets the Reds, who have a 22% K-rate vs. RHP and the same rate on the road. Hendricks is also a -280 favorite and the Reds are dead last in wRC+ over the last 14 days.
Jared Eickhoff – PHL vs. ATL – $8,400 – The Braves have been better over their last 14 days, but they are still bad and still rank at the bottom against RHP and on the road in wOBA and wRC+. Eickhoff has been solid this season, and over his last six starts, he has 8.2 K/9 IP and a 3.90 SIERA.
Matt Harvey – NYM vs. MIA – $7,000 – The total in this game is 7.5, with the Mets as a decent favorite, leaving the Marlins at an implied 3.4 run total. Harvey hasn’t been ace material, but the 11% swinging strike rate for the season is sound.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. TEX – $5,500 – what could be more American than rostering Papi, in Boston, on July 4th? It helps that Ortiz rocks an amazing .465/.380 wOBA/ISO split and faces TEX SP Martinez, who has given up 1.845 HR/9 IP this season.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL vs. PIT – $5,200 – Carpenter continues to hit hard, with a 48% hard hit over his past two weeks and solid splits against LHP this season (.381/.240 wOBA/ISO) against Jonathon Niese, who has struggled against both LH and RH bats this season, hence the Cardinals implied run total of five runs.
Mookie Betts (OF) – BOS vs. TEX – $5,400 – Same great matchup as Ortiz, except TEX SP Martinez struggles a little more against RH bats (.358 wOBA) and Betts has great stats against RHP, too, with a .375 wOBA and .228 ISO against righties. Also, Betts has a 44% hard hit over his last two weeks and 221 expected power over his last 30 at-bats.
Jose Altuve (2B) – HOU vs. SEA – $5,600 – Strong against LHP, where he has a .462 wOBA, Altuve also has a 47% hard hit over the past two weeks and the Astros have an implied run total of 4.8 against SEA at home.
Matt Holliday (OF) – STL vs. PIT – $4,700 – Already talked about PIT SP Niese’s struggles against everyone, and Holliday carries a recent 197 expected power over his previous 30 at-bats and a 47% hard hit rating into this high scoring Cardinal game.
Todd Frazier (3B) – CWS vs. NYY – $4,300 – 50% hard contact over his past two weeks and faces a LHP (NYY SP Sabathia), which Frazier sports a .349 wOBA/.333 ISO against this season and 39% hard contact against, 42% hard contact at home vs. LHP.
Dustin Pedroia (2B) – BOS vs. TEX – $4,400 – Solid price level entry into that top game and Pedroia has a 44% hard contact rate over his last two weeks to go with solid splits against RHP (.360 wOBA).
Brian McCann (CATCH) – NYY @ CWS – $4,600 – McCann has been very strong against all pitchers lately, with a 201 expected power over his last month. CWS SP Shields has given up 1.535 HR/9 IP this season and a .371 wOBA to LH bats.
Shin-Soo Choo (OF) – TEX @ BOS – $3,600 – Huge 10.5 run total, of which Texas is implied to take down 4.7 of it right now. Choo has been rocking massive hard contact, with a 50% total over his past two weeks.
Neil Walker (2B) – NYM vs. MIA – $3,600 – 51% hard hit percentage over past two weeks, a 197 expected power over his last week and MIA SP Tom Koehler gives up a .362 wOBA to LH bats.
Brandon Crawford (SS) – SF vs. COL – $3,600 – 50% hard contact over his last two weeks and a 251 expected power over the last week, Crawford has a strong matchup with COL SP Butler, who gives up 39% hard contact to LH bats this season and 41% over his last two starts.
Javier Baez (3B/SS) – CHC vs. CIN – $3,800 – Baez is crushing LHP, with a .430 wOBA, .227 ISO and 35% hard contact against southpaws this season. CIN SP Reed, in a small sample in his young career, is giving up 49% hard contact to RH bats.
Ryan Howard (1B) – PHL vs. ATL – $3,400 – Great power matchup with Howard (189 expected power over last 45 at-bats) against ATL SP de la Cruz, who posted a 6.35 SIERA in his first outing, along with a very low ground ball rate and only 13% soft contact.
Dioner Navarro (CATCH) – CWS vs. NYY – $3,600 – Navarro has a .347 wOBA/.254 ISO against LHP and a 135 expected power over his last 46 at-bats.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.