MLB Targets: July 14th

Welcome back from the break my fellow DraftKings fans. After a few days off, MLB is back with a full 15-game slate tonight, so there is plenty to talk about here. The best place for last minute info, other than DK Live, of course, is Twitter. Find me there @RyNoonan. Let’ dig in.

Pitcher

USATSI_10149705_168381090_lowres

Stud

Jacob deGrom – NYM vs. COL – $11,800 – If the weather holds off here I think Jacob deGrom is the far-and-away best play at the position tonight. He pitched well in the first half, despite being on the wrong side of some home run variance, but he possesses the best combination of floor and ceiling in this matchup against the Rockies. As you’d expect, the Rockies are vulnerable when they’re on the road, and their 3.7 implied-team total is the lowest on the slate.

Other Options – Carlos Carrasco ($12,100), James Paxton ($9,900)

Value

Charlie Morton – HOU vs. MIN – $6,900 – Dubbed ‘Ground Chuck’ back in the day for his ability to induce ground balls, Charlie Morton has transformed a bit into more of a fastball/curve guy that can miss bats. He’s still above average when it comes to producing ground balls, but the spike in Ks to 9.6 per nine innings this year has propelled him to having fantasy value like he’s never had before.

Other Options – Jonathan Gray ($7,900), Brandon McCarthy ($6,900)


Catcher

Stud

Salvador Perez – KC vs. TEX – $3,900 – It should be a warm night in Kansas City, and that bodes well for the Royals’ bats against left-hander, Martin Perez. Sal is hitting lefties well this season after being more of a reverse splits type hitter over the past few seasons. His .358 wOBA and .222 ISO versus southpaws will play well against Martin Perez and his fly ball-heavy ways.

Other Options – Buster Posey ($3,800)

Value

Hector Sanchez – SD vs. SFG – $2,200 – It’s highly possible that Austin Hedges gets the start here instead of Sanchez, but if I’m wrong I’ll be giving Sanchez a look at this price. The flexibility that a $2,200 bat gives to your lineup is a huge boost, and Sanchez has shown above average power in his limited sample size of at-bats. Just make sure you check the lineup before you plug in Sanchez.


First Base

Stud

Freddie Freeman – ATL vs. ARI – $4,900 – You can play Freddie Freeman at either corner infield position, and he’s definitely worth a long look here tonight. Freeman is at home, a park that’s playing very favorably for left-handed power, against a fly ball pitching in Taijuan Walker. Freeman has mashed righties this season, entering play with a .470 wOBA and .366 ISO.

Other Options – Paul Goldschmidt ($5,100)

Value

Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. TOR – $3,300 – This is an obscene price for Miguel Cabrera, despite his somewhat underwhelming first half. He’s still making hard contact at an elite rate though and is in a great spot to start the second half here against Aaron Sanchez. Over the past few seasons, Sanchez has struggled with right-handed bats and that trend has continued this year, as Sanchez has allowed a .406 wOBA to RHBs so far in 2017.

Other Options – Matt Carpenter ($3,800)


Second Base

USATSI_10155323_168381090_lowres

Stud

Robinson Cano – SEA vs. CWS – $4,200 – I’m not really comfortable calling any bat a ‘must play,’ but Robbie Cano is just about as close as you can get to a must play tonight. The All-Star game hero is on the road in Chicago against James Shields, and his $4,200 price is extremely favorable. Shields is an extreme fly ball pitcher who’s allowed left-handed bats to dominate him this season, compiling a .430 wOBA and .321 ISO against him so far in 2017.

UPDATE: Daniel Murphy is NOT in the Nationals’ lineup tonight.

Other Options – Daniel Murphy ($5,200)

Value

UPDATE: Ian Kinsler is NOT in the Tigers’ lineup tonight.

Ian Kinsler – DET vs. TOR – $3,100 – You can cut and paste the Miguel Cabrera blurb from above into this space for Ian Kinsler. This is just too good of a price point to ignore, and the savings here allows you more flexibility without negating much upside. A Detroit stack is extremely affordable tonight.

Other Options – Josh Harrison ($3,600)


Third Base

Stud

Jake Lamb – ARI vs. ATL – $4,800 – Jake Lamb won’t be seeing much in the way of a negative park shift here tonight despite playing on the road. As noted early, Atlanta’s new SunTrust Park is playing very favorably for left-handed bats this season, and Arizona’s implied team-total of five runs is one of the best on the slate. He’s never faced R.A. Dickey before, but I’m not concerned.

Other Options – Manny Machado ($4,300), Kris Bryant ($5,200)

Value

Kyle Seager – SEA vs. CWS – $3,300 – I’m doubling down on left-handed bats against James Shields. Kyle Seager was scuffling a bit prior to the break, and there’s no better slump-buster in the game than James Shields.

Other Options – Evan Longoria ($3,600)


Shortstop

USATSI_10153011_168381090_lowres

Stud

Carlos Correa – HOU vs. MIN – $4,700 – There aren’t a lot of great plays at shortstop tonight, so when in doubt, I’ll defer to the best player at the position and that’s Carlos Correa. He was hot heading into the break with a 45% hard-hit rate, and he’ll look to continue that tonight at home against Jose Berrios. Berrios will likely be heavy faded as a pitching play tonight but has enough traction that the Houston bats could go under owned.

Other Options – Corey Seager ($4,700)

Value

Freddy Galvis – PHI vs. MIL – $3,600 – Freddy Galvis is a strong cash game play tonight at a weak position. Galvis will likely hit second tonight on the road in Milwaukee against Zach Davies. Galvis played well last week prior to the break, and Davies has struggled against left-handed bats this season, allowing a .365 wOBA and .201 ISO against him.

Other Options – Orlando Arcia ($2,900)


Outfield

Stud

Bryce Harper – WAS vs. CIN – $5,600 – If I’m paying top shelf pricing for any bat tonight it’s going to be for Bryce Harper. Harper is on the road in Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, one of the game’s best hitting environments, against a fly ball pitcher that doesn’t miss many bats, Tim Adleman.

Other Options – Mookie Betts ($4,600), Aaron Judge ($5,500)

Value

Corey Dickerson – TB vs. LAA – $3,500 – Ricky Nolasco wasn’t picked to be the pitcher by any of Monday night’s home run derby contestants but perhaps that was a mistake. Nolasco has given up 25 home runs this season, an astonishing number at the break, and I like Dickerson and the Rays to add to that tonight.

Other Options – Lorenzo Cain ($4,000), J.D. Martinez ($3,900)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.