Today’s targets will focus on the nine-game slate tonight, where the pitching is tricky to sort out, there are some solid places to chase bats and there is a game at Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. SF – $12,800 – Fernandez’s ceiling isn’t as high, even at home, as we’d like it to be for $12.8K, because he’s facing the stingy Giants. In previous games with profiles similar to SF, he’s struck out close to eight per game, so that’s the aim here. On tonight’s slate that may be a clear winner and you’re paying for the consistency, his 16% swinging strike rate over the past 30 days and a high floor.
Kevin Gausman – BAL @ OAK – $8,300 – I don’t love this, because Gausman has given up some serious hard contact over the last 30 days, but he has a few things going in his favor today. He’s in Oakland, and the A’s have the third worst wRC+ this season at a paltry 83. Second is that Oakland is bottom ten against the fastball, slider and split-finger pitches – which comprise 94% of the pitches Gausman has thrown this season.
Julio Urias – LAD vs. PHI – $6,800 – Philadelphia is improved, they’re dangerous, oh wait, they’re still last against LHP (bottom ten in last 14 days) and the game is in Dodger Stadium, which is below average for RH bats in most categories.
Michael Wacha – STL vs. CIN – $6,500 – Close between Wacha and Hisashi Iwakuma, both have similar middle-of-the-road SIERA’s, hard contact/soft contact rates (both below 30% over last 30 days), etc. The edge goes to Wacha who gets the Reds, who are bad against RHP (bottom five) and costs about a thousand less.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL @ OAK – $4,100 – One day too late? Better late than never, and you wouldn’t just be chasing his 3 HR game from Sunday. Machado has a 141 wRC+ against RHP and a .265 ISO in that split as well. There’s another reason, but you’ll have to look at his teammate’s writeup below to get it.
Adrian Gonzalez (1B) – LAD vs. PHI – $4,100 – PHI SP Eflin is going to be a sneaky target, because Dodger Stadium is not Coors or Miller Park, where the focus is tonight. But Eflin has the third worst SIERA 5.41 over the past five starts and has given up 37% hard contact in that time as well. For his part, Gonzalez has shown an uptick in hard contact and power over his last six games (135 expected power, 100 is average).
Justin Turner (3B) – LAD vs. PHI – $4,700 – Same as Gonzalez, except few guys are making the hard, powerful contact as Turner has lately. Turner’s expected power is 214 over his last six games and he has always hit righties hard.
Stephen Piscotty (OF) – STL vs. CIN – $4,400 – CIN SP Reed is another sneaky pitcher to target against, as he has given up 40% hard contact over his last four starts. The Cardinals have been below average as a team vs. LHP, but not Piscotty. Piscotty has a 189 wRC+ against LHP this season, with a .307 ISO.
Devon Travis (2B) – TOR vs. TBR – $4,000 – Don’t love going after TB SP Odorizzi, who has given up the least amount of hard contact over the last 30 days among the SP on the slate. However…Travis is back to being LEADOFF Travis, and he has hit RHP rather well, with a 148 wRC+ and has a 207 expected power over his last seven games.
Nolan Arenado (3B) – COL vs. TEX – $4,700 – Hamels is tough, but Arenado at home vs. LHP is above such things, with a 192 wRC+ in that split.
Carlos Correa (SS) – HOU @ MIN – $5,100 – MIN SP Duffey gives up 33.9% hard contact, but only 7.7% soft contact, which is why his SIERA over the last 30 days is 5.41. At home against RH bats, the hard contact shoots up to 41%. On his side, Correa has a 139 wRC+ against RHP this season, second on the team behind Jose Altuve ($5.6K)
Chris Carter (1B) – MIL vs. ATL – $4,000 – All the Brewers are fine plays against ATL SP Whalen, who has given up 36% hard contact, 7.1% soft contact and carries a 6.41 SIERA. His .231 BABIP is all that has carried him, and that can change in a blink in Miller Park. Carter has 43.2% hard contact at home vs. RHP this season and has a recent 181 expected power over his last six games.
Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B) – STL vs. CIN – $3,000 – Has been seen batting second against LHP, we’ve mentioned the Reed factor in play, and Gyorko has had a solid 121 expected power with 95% contact rate over his last six games.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL @ OAK – $3,900 – Not a splendid venue, but Trumbo does have a 139 wRC+ against RHP, OAK SP Graveman has a 4.54 SIERA over his last five starts, throws 83% fastballs and the Orioles are the second best fastball hitting team in the league led by Machado and Trumbo.
Kirk Niewenhuis (OF) – MIL vs. ATL – $3,800 – Check Whalen’s awful numbers above in Carter’s writeup and consider Niewenhuis has a 48.4% hard contact rate against RHP at home.
Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX @ COL – $4,000 – For Coors Field, this is value. Beltre has a stellar 135 wRC+ vs. LHP this season and nearly 40% hard contact as well. COL SP Anderson is better than maybe you think, but he has given up 36% hard contact at home to RH bats.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR vs. TBR – $3,500 – As discussed in the Travis write-up, TB SP Odorizzi is tough, the prices are too low on Toronto at home, including Joey Bats, who has a solid 35% hard contact against RHP in TOR.
Chris Davis (1B) – BAL @ OAK – $3,400 – Way too low for Davis, who has a 46% hard contact rate against RHP on the road and bouncing back with a 273 expected power over the last six games.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.