These targets will focus on the seven-game slate tonight, which features some challenging pitching decisions to go with a game at Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
NOTE: Yesterday I went with only one hitter in Studs and one in Values in Coors Field by design for a broader scope of hitters. That may not be the case below in this shorter slate. Let’s go!
J.A Happ – TOR @ HOU – $11,700 – On slates where there are no true studs, I want the guy pitching the best and access to the most strikeouts. That’s Happ, who has a 3.06 SIERA, 13% swinging strike rate and 11.5 K/9 over his last four starts. The Astros can hit the long ball, and they may get a couple against Happ, but they also whiff 24% of the time against LHP over their last 14 days. Happ is a slight favorite in an eight run total, giving him the lowest implied runs against on the slate.
Drew Pomeranz – BOS @ SEA – $9,400 – Truth is, there are only two guys above my $8K Studs line on the slate. But both are worthy of inclusion here anyway. Pomeranz has slowed somewhat, but still has a solid 8.9 K/9 IP over his last four starts, and SEA is league avg vs. LHP this season in wRC+ and still strike out a league avg. 21.5% of the time as well.
Mike Fiers – HOU vs. TOR – $6,500 – If you want access to Coors bats, you may have to spend some time looking at this tier of SP tonight. While I like Happ more, clearly, Fiers has been considerably better at home this season, with an xFIP of 3.76 and a K-rate of 19.2%. His K:BB ratio is almost 2.5x better at home than on the road. Toronto is still a strong road offense, 11th in wRC+, but the game is still projected to be tight.
Kenta Maeda – LAD @ COL – $6,500 – You could go safer with Nathan Eovaldi or Ryan Vogelsong, but if you are playing cash, then you’re going to the top line in pitching anyway. For tourneys, Maeda is a bold call, but consider: he’s got a 3.21 SIERA, 12% swinging strike rate and 10.2 K/9 IP over his last five starts. His last start in Coors was a 6 1/3, 3 hit, 1 walk, 8 strikeout, 0 ER gem in the height of the Trevor Story boom. He’s very cheap and the Rockies, even at home, are only 10th in wRC+, and they strikeout 20% of the time against RHP.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. LAD – $5,500 – It’s well established how good he is at Coors: 187 wRC+ there this season, with 37.1% hard contact. LAD SP Maeda is tough, but if CarGo plays (ankle), he’s the one to have.
Justin Turner (3B) – LAD @ COL – $5,200 – Turner has been the hottest of the Dodger bats, with an impressive 187 expected power (100 is average) over his last 90 at-bats and 283 over his last 22 ABs.
Edwin Encarnación (1B) – TOR @ HOU – $4,500 – Encarnacion has a tidy 136 wRC+ on the road against RHP and a 186 expected power over the last seven games, making him the best target on the Jays today to take advantage of the flyball tendencies of HOU SP Fiers.
Manny Machado (SS/3B) – BAL vs. TEX – $4,400 – Machado at home has a 155 wRC+ and has made 38% hard contact in the same split. BAL has an implied total of 5.2 runs against TEX and is fourth in wRC+ as a team.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS @ SEA – $4,400 – His price is finally creeping down, but Papi is starting to pick it up again after a little lull. He has a 153 expected power over his last week of work and gets a rookie SP in Ariel Miranda to go up against. With it being a Coors night and a L/L split, Ortiz may still be underowned despite the discount.
Khris Davis (OF) – OAK @ LAA – $4,500 – Davis has made hard contact at a 43.2% clip on the road against RHP this season and LAA SP Nolasco has given up 36% hard contact to RH bats this season. Nolasco also trends more ground ball to RH bats, while Davis is an extreme fly ball hitter. A great matchup for a potential long ball from Khris.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. TEX – $4,500 – Trumbo enjoys 42% hard contact at home against RHP this season and a stellar 158 wRC+ in the same split. He’ll be batting middle of the lineup with the Orioles’ 5.2 implied run total tonight.
Freddie Freeman (1B) – ATL vs. PIT – $4,900 – A side play, Freeman gets to face PIT SP Vogelsong, who had a 4.83 SIERA before he went away and a 1.051 OPS against LH bats. In his short run this season, he’s given up 48% hard contact to LH bats. Freeman has 42.2% hard contact at home this season.
David Dahl (OF) – COL vs. LOS – $3,700 – Up $700 from yesterday, when we had him in here at $3K. He had three hits last night and is still underpriced for the venue by probably $1,000 because he should still be batting fifth. Enjoy.
Brian McCann (CATCH) – NYY vs. NYM – $3,700 – With NYM SP Colon offering 43% hard contact against LH bats, McCann can take aim at extending Colon’s 2.4 HR/9 IP rate over his last five starts.
Curtis Granderson (OF) – NYM @ NYY – $3,500 – NYY SP Eovaldi gives up 38% hard contact to LH bats in Yankee Stadium this season and Granderson’s been making 36% hard contact against RHP this season. And Yankee Stadium is the park for LH home runs and #2 for home runs overall.
Neil Walker (2B) – NYM @ NYY – $3,700 – Did somebody say HRs? Walker has a couple this week and 38% hard contact over his past two weeks and gets the same friendly park impact as Granderson and McCann.
Matt Joyce (OF) – PIT @ ATL – $3,800 – 40% hard contact over his last seven games and 38% hard contact on the road against RHP this season. Joyce gets ATL SP Jenkins, who has given up 48% hard contact in his last two starts and a 6.60 SIERA with 1.8 HR/9 IP in his last four starts.
Daniel Descalso (1B/OF) – COL vs. LAD – $3,300 – This is a placeholder because, if CarGo doesn’t play then watch the lineup to see if Descalso or Ryan Raburn ($3K), Rafael Ynoa ($3K) or anyone else gets the start for him.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.