Today’s targets will focus on the 12-game slate tonight, which features considerably less pitching than Tuesday night to go with some sneaky offensive matchups and a game at Coors Field. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jake Odorizzi – TB vs. KC – $9,100 – Odorizzi has been so-so over his last five starts, with a 4.25 SIERA and 7.8 K/9. But the Royals have been brutal over the last 14 days, with a 57 wRC+ and 20.4% strikeout rate. Odorizzi comes in as the favorite in a seven run total in a tough ballpark for hitters, and he’s got a sub 1.0 HR/9 rate and only 1.2 BB/9 as well.
Johnny Cueto – SF @ PHI – $11,900 – PHI pounded Madison Bumgarner so bad last night it causes pause for sure, but the stats still show PHI being next to last against RHP and are still below the league average in wRC+ over the last 14 days. Cueto maintains solid enough pitching for this slate, with a 3.4 K:BB ratio, 3.90 SIERA and 24% hard contact over his last five starts.
Chad Green – NYY @ NYM – $5,800 – In 23 innings and change, Green has 14% swinging strike rate, 10.3 K/9 and 3.18 SIERA. His last start, he got drilled, but that was CLE in CLE, and they are the best team, wRC+-wise, at home. The Mets aren’t pushovers at their house, but they are below league average and offer a 22% strikeout rate. At $5.6K, Green is worth a shot for the potential Ks here.
Collin McHugh – HOU vs. TOR – $7,100 – We remember McHugh getting it all handed to him in Detroit, who happen to be the hottest bats over the past 14 days, but McHugh has been considerably better at home, where he’s only given up 24% hard contact, gets five percent more soft contact (23-18) and both strikeout rate and walk rates improve there as well. TOR is dangerous, of course, but they are 22nd in wRC+ over the last 14 days, and McHugh keeps the dingers down to 0.7 per 9 IP for the season.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – COL vs. LAD – $5,300 – Coors Field, so no kidding, but good to note here that CarGo has a 185 wRC+ and 37% hard contact at Coors. His home run rate is one every 14.67 at-bats at home, too.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE vs. MIN – $4,700 – Napoli has a nice 41% hard contact rate at home, and MIN SP Duffey gives up 36% against RH bats and a 5.05 xFIP away vs. RH bats. Napoli also has 41% hard contact over the last two weeks and a 172 expected power over his last 22 at-bats.
Max Kepler (OF) – MIN @ CLE – $5,300 – You want Max Power? You’ll have to pay today, but his 48% hard contact on the road against RHP, 209 wRC+ in the same split and 185 expected power over his last 92 at-bats makes it a legit tourney option against CLE SP Bauer, who gives up over 41% hard contact to LH bats.
Khris Davis (OF) – OAK @ LAA – $4,300 – Davis has a solid 41.4% hard contact rate against RHP on the road while LAA SP Weaver gives up hard contact to everybody, but 37.4% hard contact to RH bats at home. Davis also has an epic 352 expected power over his last 20 at-bats.
Matt Holliday (OF) – STL @ CIN – $4,200 – Holliday has a 144 wRC+ on the road and CIN SP Reed is giving up 42% hard contact to RH bats this season. The Cardinals have a nice five run implied total tonight, and Holliday has been solid with a 128 expected power over his last seven games.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR @ HOU – $4,100 – McHugh is solid tonight, but Bautista at $4.1K, at the top of the Jays lineup, getting extra at-bats on the road and a solid 140 expected power over his last 25 at-bats is worth a shot.
Jason Kipnis (2B) – CLE vs. MIN – $5,200 – He let us down Tuesday night, but still has that 48% hard contact rate at home vs. RHP, and the Indians have a strong implied run total of 5.2 tonight.
Danny Valencia (3B) – OAK @ LAA – $3,700 – OAK has a nice 4.4 implied run total with upside because of LAA SP Weaver, who has a 5.83 SIERA in his last five starts and a 4.2 net K-BB% at home this season. Valencia makes hard contact on the road against RHP at a nice 38% clip.
David Dahl (OF) – COL vs. LAD– $3,000 – Dahl has been very fortunate so far in his stint with the Rockies, with a 47% BABIP and outdistancing his expected power by 83 points (61 is his expected power, 100 is average). But, $3K in Coors and batting fifth-ish? Definitely value.
Alejandro De Aza (OF) – NYM vs. NYY – $3,100 – I’m not sure anyone is making more hard contact than De Aza, who has made 68% hard contact over his last eight games and has an super high 228 expected power over his last 36 at-bats.
Tommy Pham (OF) – STL @ CIN – $3,400 – Pham has a nice 52% hard contact rate and .207 ISO against LHP, and the Cardinals have that nice five run implied total at CIN tonight.
John Jaso (1B) – PIT @ ATL – $2,400 – Usually a cash game play due to lack of upside, he’s in a terrible slump where he’s been hitless in his last 18 at-bats despite having a 52% hard contact rate. Still, he’s a $2.4K leadoff guy with a team carrying a solid 4.5 implied total against a RHP. His 0% BABIP has to change at some point with that hard contact.
Jefry Marte (3B/1B) – LAA vs. OAK – $3,400 – 172 expected power over his last 44 at-bats and 43% hard contact at home vs. RHP. The Angels have a sneaky 4.6 implied run total for tonight and Marte should be batting fifth for them.
James McCann (CATCH) – DET vs. CWS – $2,600 – So very good against LHP, 44% hard contact at home against LHP. Lest you be concerned about CWS SP Sale, his worst split, in terms of xFIP and hard contact, is against RH bats on the road.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.