Today’s targets will focus on the eight-game slate tonight, which features some challenging pitching decisions to go with some lower forecasted run totals that we’ve been experiencing this summer. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Chris Archer – TB vs. KC – $10,100 – With Archer you get access to ace stuff for just above $10K tonight, and he’s gotten control of that stuff over his last five starts, with a K:BB ratio of 4.8, with a 14% swinging strike rate and 10.7 K/9IP. Kansas City, over their last 14 days, has crept above the league average in K-rate, with 21% to go with a very weak 62 wRC+ and .105 ISO.
Danny Duffy – KC @ TB – $10,900 – Tournament only play and, on the surface, the risk seems clear. Tampa Bay is dangerous, power-wise, against LHP, with a 113 wRC+ against southpaws. However, they are also bottom ten at home in wRC+ and strike out a lot in that split and against LHP, with 25.1% at home and 23.8% against LHP. Duffy is better on the road this season, where his K-rate spikes to 31%.
Jimmy Nelson – MIL @ SD – $7,800 – There are some days values come into your SP selection and some days where I tell you like it is and tell you to pay up for your SP. Today is the latter – I recommend paying up above $8K (my dividing line on values, typically, for this piece). Nelson has been below average lately (4.54 SIERA over last five starts) and all season (4.55 SIERA, 7% swinging strike rate, 6.8 K/9), but he does get the now Kemp-less, Dickerson-less Padres who also happen to be the one of the best at providing strikeout ops to opposing SPs. The Padres whiff 24% of the time at home and 24.9% against RHP. Their recent surge still has them at 23rd over the last two weeks in wRC+ and a K-rate of 28%.
Jarred Cosart – SD vs. MIL – $4,900 – Cosart is not a top pitcher, but he was able to provide five solid innings his last time out against PHI, nearly getting 15 DK points, which would be stellar at his salary. The Brewers are 25th in wRC+ away from Miller Park, with a 26% K-rate as well. The game total here is only eight, so the damage could be minimal and at $4.9K, and the strikeout tendencies of MIL, could get value if you wanted to go all out in a tourney lineup with your bats.
Jason Kipnis (2B) – CLE vs. MIN – $5,100 – Playing at home, vs. RHP, Kipnis has a 49.5% hard contact rate and a 167 wRC+. Cleveland, against recently re-called MIN SP Berrios, have an implied 5.1 run total, highest for tonight’s slate.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – TOR @ HOU – $4,600 – Just called up HOU SP Musgrove had average overall stats in AAA with a slightly above average K-rate and good control. Now he’ll have to get out the Jays and Encarnacion, who has a 139 wRC+ vs. RHP on the road and a 172 expected power over his last 25 at-bats.
Nelson Cruz (OF) – SEA vs. BOS – $5,000 – He’s been slow out of the gate vs. LHP at home, with only(!) a 132 wRC+ a 2 HR in 53 at-bats this season. That should progress soon, as he’s still making 43% hard contact in that split and had a mammoth 202 wRC+ last season. BOS SP Rodriguez has given up 1.53 HR/9 IP this season as well.
Jose Bautista (OF) – TOR @ HOU – $4,100 – This salary is too low for the (still) leadoff man in Toronto. Bautista also has a 132 wRC+ away vs. RHP and a solid 128 expected power over his last 23 at-bats.
Anthony Rendon (3B) – WAS @ ARI – $4,000 – There aren’t too many great targets slightly above the $4K mark, but here’s one. Rendon has a 43.7% hard contact rate on the road against RHP this season and the Nationals have a strong 4.6 implied run total tonight.
Justin Smoak (1B) – TOR @ HOU – $4,100 – Great tourney only play in that he’s over $4K and listed at the same position as Encarnacion. Smoak, if he plays, has a 43.2% hard contact rate on the road vs. RHP this season and a 191 expected power over his last 51 at-bats.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS @ SEA – $5,000 – Boston won’t be the popular play tonight, for a change, and Ortiz has a reverse split matchup, further decreasing ownership. However, Ortiz has an elite 46.9% hard contact against LHP on the road this season, and SEA SP Paxton offers a sweet 52.4% hard contact rate against LH bats at home.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE vs. MIN – $4,800 – Always somewhat underowned, Napoli has a 174 wRC+ against RHP in CLE and a 177 expected power over his last 90 at-bats.
Brian McCann (CATCH) – NYY @ NYM – $3,600 – McCann has a strong 39% hard contact rate vs. RHP on the road and NYM SP Verrett has a weak 4.57 SIERA over his last six starts.
Franklin Gutierrez (OF) – SEA vs. BOS – $3,600 – Not the lock/load against LHP he was in the beginning of the season, Gutierrez still has a huge 48.6% hard contact rate vs. LHP at home this season.
Jayson Werth (OF) – WAS @ ARI – $3,400 – Lower cost entry into a strong 4.6 implied run total for the night, Werth has a solid 37% hard contact rate vs. RHP on the road.
Aaron Hill (2B/3B) – BOS @ SEA – $2,600 – 50% hard contact over last six games, solid 37% hard contact rate vs. LHP for the season and SEA SP Paxton gives up 38% hard contact vs. RH bats at home.
Carlos Beltran (OF) – NYY @ NYM – $3,900 – 40% hard contact over last 13 games and batting third in good matchup against NYM SP Verrett.
Trea Turner (2B/OF) – WAS @ ARI – $3,600 – Should have high batting order position against ARI SP Bradley, who has a 4.79 SIERA over last five starts. Turner has a 175 wRC+ on the road against RHP so far in his young career.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.