Today’s targets will focus on the nine-game slate tonight, which features a not-so-clean pitching selection process and a few places to check off some bats. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Jose Fernandez — MIA at CIN – $11,900 – Not entirely clean selection, as the Reds do have three bats that can exploit the relative gap in Fernandez’s splits (3.51 xFIP vs. LH bats, K rate of “only” 26%) in Joey Votto, Scott Schebler and Tucker Barnhart, all of whom have a 150 or higher wRC+ against RHP at home. However, Fernandez destroys RH bats and the Reds have the K-rates for Jose to exploit here.
Danny Salazar — CLE vs. CWS – $9,000 – The White Sox are bottom five against RHP this season and are on the road, a split where only Justin Morneau has a wRC+ split of over 100, which is average. Salazar has a strong 26% K rate at home and Vegas has CLE as a -200 favorite.
Ross Striplng – LAD at PHI – $5,200 – The Phillies can throw the Sunday punch at teams from time to time, but Stripling has the second lowest SIERA of the last 30 days on the slate at a 3.39 clip and the Phillies are still 22nd in wRC+ over the last 14 days, with a 22% K rate. There’s not much below the 8K value line tonight, so if you want to go low, go real low and hope you can get to 3-4x, as Stripling did against the Red Sox two starts ago (5x) before only going 2x against the Pirates.
Dan Straily – CIN vs. MIA – $7,900 – Not great, but Straily has the third highest swinging strike rate over the last 30 days at an impressive 11.6%. Miami is 19th over the last 14 days in wRC+ and 16th for the season against RHP and they do not have Giancarlo Stanton to threaten Straily.
Mike Napoli (1B) – CLE vs. CWS – $5,000 – One of the best stacks on the slate are the Indians at home facing Carlos Rodon, who has an xFIP over 5.00 against RH bats on the road. Napoli stands as the best of the Cleveland lot, with a wRC+ of 197, a wOBA of .462 and an ISO of .291.
Max Kepler (OF) – MIN at KC – $4,900 – Another matchup to watch will be the Minnesota LH bats taking on KC SP Dillon Gee, who has a 5.47 xFIP this season against LH bats at home. Kepler leads the way for the Twins LH bats, with a 183 wRC+ and .413 ISO against RHP on the road.
Mark Trumbo (OF) – BAL vs. HOU – $4,700 – Trumbo is always low owned, and this matchup at home with HOU RHP Musgrove is Trumbo’s best split- with a 159 wRC+ and .305 ISO. Musgrove might actually be a trendy choice at SP, further deflating Trumbo’s ownership.
Bryce Harper (OF) – WAS at ATL – $5,100 – Been a while since he’s gotten room in this space, but he’s coming on strong, with a 55% hard contact rate over his last two weeks an an expected power of 177 (100 is average). ATL SP Whalen has been alright (3.82 SIERA L30), but that’s not going to get it done against Harper and the Nationals tonight.
Paulo Orlando (OF) – KCR vs. MIN – $4,200 – The Royals have an implied total of 4.6 runs against MIN SP Duffey, who has a 5.13 xFIP on the road against RH bats. Orlando puts up a 126 wRC+ at home against RHP and should be in the leadoff slot.
Chase Utley (2B) – LAD at PHI – $4,100 – PHI SP Eickhoff has a 4.74 xFIP against LH bats and Utley has a nice split against RHP on the road with a 123 wRC+ and a 133 expected power over the last week.
Brandon Guyer (OF) – CLE vs. CWS – $4,300 – Guyer has stepped into the Cleveland vs. LHP strategy well, and carries a 199 wRC+ and .462 wOBA into tonight’s plus matchup with CWS SP Rodon.
Kennys Vargas (1B) – MIN at KCR – $4,100 – With Joe Mauer (who would’ve been good here, too) out tonight, Vargas will almost certainly get the start and contribute with his 161 wRC+ and .367 ISO against RHP on the road.
Ryan Schimpf (2B) – SD vs. ARZ – $3,900 – Another sneaky stack could be the Padres, who go against arguably the worst pitcher over the last 30 days that appears on this slate. ARZ SP Bradley has a 5.06 SIERA and 6.0% swinging strike rate and has to face a suddenly stout LH batfest in San Diego, led by Schimpf who has a 133 wRC+ and .310 ISO in split.
Hyun-Soo Kim (OF) – BAL vs. HOU – $3,700 – Against RHP at home, Kim has a 138 wRC+ and .381 wOBA and the Orioles, who have rookie SP Musgrove coming in tonight, has an implied total of 4.4 runs tonight.
Scott Schebler (OF) – CIN vs. MIA – $2,300 – Yes, it’s against Jose Fernandez, but his splits against RHP at home (.181 wRC+, .448 wOBA, .310 ISO) matches up well with the Fernandez weak spot on the road against LH bats (3.51 xFIP). Will be extremely low owned tonight.
Josh Reddick (OF) – LAD at PHI – $3,700 – Takes advantage of the favorite opposing SP split of Eickhoff, and brings a 145 wRC+ against RHP on the road this season.
Kendrys Morales (1B/OF) – KC vs. MIN – $3,300 – Morales has been one of the more powerful hitters over the last week, with a 200 expected power and should be batting in the middle of the lineup against MIN SP Duffey.
Alex Dickerson (OF) – SDP vs. ARZ – $3,400 – Great split against ARZ RHP Bradley tonight and Dickerson has a solid 37% hard hit factor and 124 wRC+ against RHP this season.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.