Tonight’s targets will focus on the ten-game slate, which features a pretty solid choice of going up or down for SPs and a Coors-less slate with solid options for bats. Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
Yu Darvish – TEX vs. OAK – $11,400 – Darvish is back in dominant form, evidenced by a 2.65 SIERA L30 and a 31% K rate against a 2.4% Walk rate. Darvish is also getting a 13% swinging strike rate L30, tops on the slate.
Jon Lester – CHC vs. MIL – $11,200 – Brewers have struck the second most against LHP this season and the most on the road this season. Lester has a solid record L30, with a 3.89 SIERA, 9.10 K/9 IP and 11% swinging strike rate.
Zack Godley – ARZ vs. NYM – $4,200 – Godley has a 3.66 SIERA L30, third best on the slate tonight, has a good 12.7% swinging strike rate and the Mets are both mediocre and somewhat strikeout prone (22%) against RHP.
Anibal Sanchez – DET vs. KCR – $5,600 – Sanchez may be bouncing back. Over the last 30 days, he’s recorded 3.67 SIERA with a 24.4% K-rate against a mere 5.5% walk rate. He’s also cranked up to 11% in swinging strike rate. The Royals have struck out the seventh most over the last 14 days.
Tyler Naquin (OF) – CLE vs. CWS – $4,600 – We’ll let Naquin and his 210 wRC+, .480 wOBA and .463 ISO at home vs. RHP represent all the Indians batters in this lineup, because they are all in play against CWS SP Ranaudo. The RHP has the worst SIERA and K-BB% on the slate tonight and opening up the sample to his entire career doesn’t help.
Anthony Rizzo (1B) – CHC vs. MIL – $5,300 – Splendid splits here against MIL SP Nelson, who has a weak 7.7% swinging strike rate over the last 30 days and a 4.55 SIERA, led by a rising 12.3 walk rate. Rizzo has a 15 walk rate and 150 wRC+ at home against RHP.
J.D. Martinez (OF) – DET vs. KCR – $4,300 – JDM has a terrific 179 wRC+ and KCR SP Ventura has a hefty 1.69 HR/9 IP rate against RH bats on the road. Also, the Tigers have an implied run total of 4.7 runs.
Joey Votto (1B) – CIN vs. MIA – $5,300 – MIA SP Cashner has a 6.15 xFIP against LH bats away and the Great American Ballpark is top five for HRs to LH bats and runs overall. Votto, for his part, has a 19% walk rate against RHP at home and a 153 wRC+.
Ian Desmond (OF) – TEX vs. OAK – $4,700 – Desmond has a hard to ignore 194 wRC+ against LHP at home and a .467 wOBA against OAK SP Manaea, who has been good overall in the last 30 days, but has given up 8 HRs in 28.1 IP against RH bats this season.
Welington Castillo (CATCH) – ARZ vs. NYM – $4,700 – He, Rickie Weeks ($4.6K) and Paul Goldschmidt are priced up against a LHP at home (Goldy’s at $5.5K), but they all have excellent splits here, with Castillo having a 190 wRC+ and a .333 ISO.
Max Kepler (OF) – MIN at ATL – $4,200 – He’s cooled from his torrid week a while ago, but he’s in the sweet spot split tonight, on the road against a RHP, where he has a 182 wRC+ and .419 ISO. That RHP is ATL SP Foltynewicz, who has a 5.88 xFIP this season against LH bats at home and he’s given up three home runs in 13 IP against them.
Josh Reddick (OF) – LAD at PHI – $4,200 – All the Dodgers are priced up against PHI SP Thompson, who has the second highest L30 SIERA, at 5.24. Reddick has a nice 150 wRC+ away from his home parks this season and is one of only two regulars priced reasonably for tonight.
Chase Utley (2B) – LAD at PHI – $3,900 – Utley has embraced his return to Philly, knocking out two home runs Tuesday night. Away vs. RHP is his best split, with a 120 wRC+, and PHI SP Thompson is a bit of a knocked around unknown, but leading off with a five run number makes him a solid play.
Jorge Polanco (3B/SS) – MIN at ATL – $3,000 – The Twins moved him up to the second slot Tuesday against a RHP and he banged out three hits to add to his 160 wRC+ in split. Now he gets ATL SP Foltynewicz, who has that 5.88 xFIP against LH at home.
Cliff Pennington (2B/SS) – LAA vs. SEA – $2,900 – Middle infield low cost play in his best split, at home against RHP, with a 137 wRC+ and a .237 ISO. His opponent, SEA SP Martin, has a 4.9% swinging strike rate over the last 30 days.
Tyler Collins (OF) – DET vs. KCR – $2,600 – We know about KCR SP Ventura and the matchup Collins has, but let’s add that he’s also batting second and carries a sporty 121 wRC+ and a .256 ISO in split.
Scott Schebler (OF) – CIN vs. MIA – $2,900 – Great matchup, as indicated in Votto’s write up above and Schebler has a 160 wRC+ split of his own and a .333 ISO to go with that.
Aaron Altherr (OF) – PHI vs. LAD – $3,100 – The key number here is 2.39 which is the amount of HRs per nine innings that Scott Kazmir gives up to RH bats on the road. His sample is super small, but Altherr has three hits in seven at bats in split and two of those are for extra bases (one is HR).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.