Today’s targets will focus on the 12-game slate tonight. It’s a slate where the hottest pitcher, seasonally and last 30 days, is Robbie Ray. So buckle up! Any questions, please find me on Twitter @JasonWalker_72 — let’s do this!
J.A. Happ – TOR vs. TBR – $11,700 – Happ has excellent trending stats: 30.1% K rate over last 30 days, 3.46 SIERA and faces a TBR team that will stack RH bats against him. But, at home, he has a 26% K-rate and the Rays that will line up against him have the following K-rates vs. LHP – Souza – 41%, Beckham – 36%, Casali – 35.3%, Dickerson – 32.1%, Miller – 27%, Forsythe -22.4%, Jennings – 22.2% and Longoria at 20%. Longoria has the only real positive splits here, so I think Happ has a lot of Ks coming to him tonight.
Ian Kennedy – KCR vs. CWS – $8,900 – It’s ok if you don’t want in on Kennedy with me, he’s scary with his high hard contact rate, but he uses that to his advantage in KC and has a 28% K rate at home. He’s struggles most with power hitting LH bats of which the White Sox have exactly zero. Meanwhile, Tim Anderson, Avisail Garcia and four other probable starters have K rates over 22% against RHP.
Jaime Garcia – STL vs. CIN – $7,800 – Garcia is excellent at home and has had solid numbers over the last 30 days after struggling for a stretch to start the summer. The Reds have only one player who excels on the road against LHP and that’s 3B Eugenio Suarez. Everyone else has a wRC+ below 100 and high K-rates to go with it, including Suarez.
Martin Perez – TEX vs. COL – $4,300 – If you don’t want to go with me on Kennedy, there’s no way you want Perez, but he’s a possible 18-19 DK point SP tonight against a Rockies team that stinks on the road against LHP. Perez, at home is only bad, not awful, seeing his K rate go up to 14% and xFIP drop to 4.50 at home. The Rockies don’t have a single player who excels on the road against LHP, as Nolan Arenado is the only regular over 100 wRC+ there in that split. I can see a lot of weaker contact, and Perez doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact to begin with.
David Ortiz (1B) – BOS vs. NYY – $5,300 – 40% hard contact rate in split over last 14 days, 179 wRC+ for the season vs. RHP and NYY SP Eovaldi gives up 1.82 HR/9 IP against LH bats on the road.
Ian Desmond (OF) -TEX vs. COL – $4,400 – One of the premium splits of the slate, Desmond has a 244 wRC+ at home vs. LHP this season and a .340 ISO as well while COL SP de la Rosa has a 35% hard contact to RH bats on the road and a 5.77 SIERA with a net 0.00 K%-BB%.
Matt Carpenter (2B/3B) – STL vs. CIN – $4,500 – Carpenter has a 170 wRC+ against RHP at home this season and a .294 ISO in split as well. CIN SP DeSclafani has given up 1.76 HR/9 IP to LH bats on the road this season and a .377 wOBA in the same split.
Carlos Correa (SS) – HOU at MIN – $4,100 – MIN SP Santana has reverse split issues, with a 4.42 xFIP against RH bats at home and a 1.62 HR/9 IP rate in that split, too. Correa has a solid 36% hard contact rate on the road against RHP and a 139 wRC+.
Adrian Beltre (3B) – TEX vs. COL – $4,200 – Beltre, while not as prolific this season as Desmond, also has strong splits, with a 167 wRC+, 10% K-rate and 40% hard hit against LHP at home.
Josh Donaldson (3B) – TOR vs. TBR – $4,800 – It has to happen at some point. Donaldson is dinger-less at home vs. LHP this season, despite a 170 wRC+ in that split. TOR is not THE stack tonight, which may be all Donaldson needs to sneak this homer in tonight.
Brandon Moss (1B/OF) – STL vs. CIN – $4,400 – Another Cardinal to take advantage of the positive HR rate from CIN SP DeSclafani, Moss has a 170 wRC+ with a .386 ISO at home against RHP this season.
Alex Dickerson (OF) – SDP at PIT – $4,000 – Dickerson excels against RHP and on the road, he has a 144 wRC+ with 11.2% K-rate. He gets PIT SP Vogelsong, who has been solid, but still allows 40.5% hard contact to LH bats.
Lorenzo Cain (OF) – KCR vs. CWS – $3,500 – At home vs. LHP, Cain has a tremendous 216 wRC+ and only whiffs 10% of the time. CWS SP Quintana struggles against RH bats on the road, with a 4.73 xFIP.
Mike Zunino (CATCH) – SEA vs. DET – $2,300 – Zunino has a massive split at home vs. RHP, with a 250 wRC+, .632 ISO and 50% hard contact….in 19 AB. However, DET SP Verlander is weaker on the road against RH bats, seeing his K/9 drop from 10.20 to 6.94 in split. Tourney only, but with a lot of people on Verlander possibly tonight, it’s a cheap punt play with power upside.
J.J. Hardy (SS) – BAL at OAK – $3,100 – Hardy has great splits against LHP on the road, and has a 62% hard contact there. OAK SP Detwiler has a 6.21 SIERA this season, is negative in K-BB rate and gives up 36% hard contact against RH bats.
Ryan Rua (1B/OF) – TEX vs. COL – $3,800 – Already covered the great matchup the Rangers have at home against COL SP de la Rosa. Rua has a 193 wRC+ at home against LHP this season and a .464 wOBA there as well.
Kole Calhoun (OF) – LAA vs. CHC – $2,900 – Decent two-man stack with Mike Trout tonight against CHC SP Hammel, who sees his walk rate jump against LH at home to almost 16%. Calhoun has a nice 12.3% walk rate and 148 wRC+ against RHP on the road.
Willson Contreras (CATCH) – CHC vs. LAA – $3,800 – Contreras hits well at Wrigley, with a 140 wRC+ in both vs. RHP/LHP. LAA SP Nolasco is giving up the most hard contact over the last 30 days on the slate, with 41.2% and has given up 1.82 HR/9 IP against RH bats.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.