There are a few standout starters to choose from for Wednesday’s lineups, but the real value is between the $5.5-6.9 K mark. You’ve got some solid risks in that range, allowing for a more dominant hitting lineup. Be careful if you’re going with young Vincent Velasquez, as he is making his MLB debut, although his salary does allow for a nice “Studs-and-Duds’ pitcher duo. Good luck on Wednesday!
Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings MLB salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each pitcher.
Cream of the Crop
1) Trevor Bauer vs. Seattle Mariners ($8,700) – Bauer is getting deep into games, striking out hitters at a lovely clip and has scored just under 26 FPPG over his last five starts. For the salary, I just don’t see a better dominant value for Wednesday’s lineups. Bauer has been much better on the road than at home, so if you’re looking for a negative on Bauer? There it is. The Mariners are one of the worst hitting teams in the league (.237 AVG, 196 R), which makes me ignore Bauer’s home park problems this season.
2) Matt Harvey vs. San Francisco Giants ($10,700) – There isn’t a more reliable pitcher than Harvey right now, so as long as you’re prepared to pay the salary… go for it. Harvey is averaging 23.2 FPPG this season, with 80 K in 73.2 IP. You have to love the lack of walks given up too. Cha-ching!
3) Carlos Martinez @ Colorado Rockies ($7,800) – Are you brave enough to give Martinez a whirl in Colorado? That’s the question, eh? Martinez has been on fire, enough that I’m going to take the chance on him at this price pitching at Coors. He has averaged 30.18 FPPG and 8 K over his last four starts. Even if you get 20 fantasy points from him, that’s solid for $7.8 K.
4) Jake Arrieta @ Detroit Tigers ($9,800) – Arrieta is borderline for me, just barely making the “Cream of the Crop” section. Even when he has “off” starts, he still manages to pull in mid-teen fantasy points. The matchup isn’t the best facing the Tigers’ bats (.272 AVG), although Arrieta is talented and reliable enough that I don’t mind spending the dough on him.
5) Aaron Sanchez vs. Miami Marlins ($6,000) – If Sanchez could just cut down on his walks, he’d be a different pitcher. Not that he’s pitching poorly, with a 3.55 ERA, but room for improvement is certainly there for the up-and-coming youngster. The Marlins rank 22nd in the league, only scoring 224 runs as a team so far in 2015. The matchup is solid for Sanchez, plus, the Marlins hitters have never faced him before.
Middle of the Pack
6) Brett Anderson vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($6,600) – I still think the Dodgers grossly overpaid for Anderson, but that’s something I’ll have to one day forget, oh, says the guy that bleeds blue. Still, Anderson is a solid arm that has a good history against the D-Backs, only allowing 3 XBH in 65 at-bats to current D-Backs’ hitters. In six starts at home, Anderson has a 2.78 ERA with 14.8 FPPG. There is high promise for a big game on Wednesday, surpassing the 20-point mark. You can’t beat the potential for the salary.
7) Jose Quintana vs. Houston Astros ($6,800) – Surprisingly, Quintana has only given up 5 XBH to current Astros’ hitters in 93 at-bats, showing an excellent .323 SLG against. Quintana is an under-the-radar value-pick for me.
8) Yovani Gallardo @ Oakland Athletics ($7,400) – Gallardo has turned his fortunes around over his last three starts, averaging over 20 FPPG with 5 K in 6 IP. The price is borderline for Gallardo, and the park factor in Oakland is deceiving, but he’s not a bad risk considering.
9) Chad Bettis vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($5,800) – The price is what gets Bettis here, and that he’s had three quality starts in his last three games pitched. Bettis has only given up 3 ER those three starts, showing that he can be fairly efficient averaging 103 pitches in over 7 IP during those starts. Bettis is a great choice to match up with a high-priced super stud, even facing the Cardinals’ bats. Just don’t be shocked if things don’t go well. I mean, there is a reason why his salary is so low.
10) Edinson Volquez @ Minnesota Twins ($7,200) – Current Twins’ hitters only have a .182 AVG against Volquez in 62 at-bats, and I like him as a high-ceiling risk to exceed his 16.5 FPPG average. The Twins’ hitters have been slowing down of late, which bodes well for Volquez. The risk? That Volquez gets to the 100-pitch mark before the 6th inning.
11) Taijuan Walker @ Cleveland Indians ($7,200) – Walker has had an up-and-down season, but, when he’s been “up”, he’s been very good. Walker has gone 8 IP over his last two starts, which we DFS’ers love to see. Walker has been limited his walks of late, although the home run is still a problem (4 HR over his last three games).
12) Jesse Hahn vs. Texas Rangers ($6,900) – The Texas bats are hot, but Hahn has been very good at home with a .210 BAA, 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Hahn has only given up 3 HR on the season to this point, with a 45:14 K:BB. If there’s a knock on Hahn in this game is that you can’t expect a ton of K’s.
13) Wei-Yin Chen vs. Boston Red Sox ($7,000) – Chen isn’t going to hurt you, averaging 15.9 FPPG per start, but he does offer the upside of a 20-plus point fantasy night. Chen would fit nicely in a lineup where you’re going with two mid-salary pitchers. Historically, however, the Sox have been able to take advantage of Chen, so something to think about in this range.
14) Tyson Ross @ Atlanta Braves ($9,300) – We all know what Ross is capable of when he’s pitching lights out, so why do I have him so low in the rankings? Ross has only had two starts over his last 10 games pitched where he’s gone over 20 fantasy points. The $9.3 K price doesn’t warrant a start in my lineup.
15) Gio Gonzalez @ New York Yankees ($8,300) – There’s a lot of negatives with Gonzalez on Tuesday: 1) He’s pitching in New York, where hitters have been teeing off. 2) Current Yankees’ hitters have a .916 OPS against him. 3) He’s given up 12 XBH, including 3 HR, in 84 AB. I like Gio’s numbers to improve moving forward; although, this isn’t the matchup to run with on Wednesday, especially at $8.3 K.
16) Erasmo Ramirez vs. Los Angeles Angels ($5,300) – Ramirez is turning his game around of late, running his record to 2-0, only giving up 1 ER over his last two starts. The most impressive feat over those starts, however, is Ramirez’ 12:2 K:BB numbers. Ramirez is a gamble, although a good one, since you’d only be spending $5.3 K to lock him in. If not Chad Bettis in this range, Ramirez for sure.
17) Kyle Gibson vs. Kansas City Royals ($6,400) – Gibson had a weird start last time out, notching 7 IP, 5 ER, 3 HR and 9 K, while not allowing a walk. He managed to rack up 20.2 fantasy points, even giving up the runs he did. See? Just tells you what a pitcher that goes deep into a game, while striking out hitters, can net you a good scoring total. Gibson is a quandary for me though today, and I’m a tad hesitant with the matchup facing the Royals.
18) Jeremy Hellickson @ Los Angeles Dodgers ($6,500) – Hellickson is wishy-washy to me on Wednesday. I want to believe he’s an okay risk with a high-teen fantasy output points-wise, but I’m just having a hard time getting on board facing the Dodgers. The Dodgers have 76 HR on the season as a team, which ranks 2nd overall in MLB play. Plus, Hellickson has already given up 9 HR on the year. Doesn’t sound too appetizing.
19) Tim Hudson @ New York Mets ($5,900) – Hudson is pitching better of late, really taking advantage of the groundball outs, while showing us he can be efficient in the process. There’s still heavy risk, of course, as Hudson has given up 9 ER in 69.1 IP this season; however, he’s only given up one HR over his last four starts. Not bad.
20) Williams Perez @ Atlanta Braves ($4,900) -Salary and decent success over his last four starts (16.8 FPPG) give Perez a push up this list. Nine walks over his last two contests, however, tags Perez with a big question mark. Come on, though… $4.9 K?
Rest of the Field
21) Charlie Morton vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($6,300) – With only six strikeouts in three starts this season, Morton is a limited option for me. I have a hard time rostering pitchers that don’t get strikeouts, so, while his numbers look good on the surface (2.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), that doesn’t mean they translate well to DFS play.
22) Rick Porcello @ Baltimore Orioles ($6,200) – Porcello bounced back nicely in his last start, after going through a rough patch where he gave up 13 ER in 11.1 IP. I just don’t trust him enough to follow up his Minnesota Twins start last week. I want a couple of good outings from Porcello before I slot him in my lineups.
23) Jered Weaver @ Tampa Bay Rays ($7,100) – It’s been a roller coaster-season for Weaver in 2015, but the important thing to take away here is he’s only averaging 11.5 FPPG this year. If I’m spending over $7 K on a pitcher, I prefer a more reliable arm.
24) Nathan Eovaldi vs. Washington Nationals ($6,100) – Eovaldi is getting smacked around this season, giving up 72 hits in 57.1 IP. Ouch. He does have a solid 45:17 K:BB rate this season, but Eovaldi just isn’t locating his pitches with opponents bats lacing the ball all over. The salary isn’t bad if you’re going to take a risk, although you can do better in this range.
25) Tom Koehler @ Toronto Blue Jays ($5,700) – Koehler has only had one bad start over the last six times he’s taken the mound, but I’m not thrilled with him pitching at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. It’s not that Toronto is a bad place for a pitcher to start, but Koehler is horrible on the road in four starts with a 6.10 ERA. Plus, left-handed bats tune him up pretty good.
26) Vincent Velasquez @ Chicago White Sox ($4,300) – Will Velasquez show his future with this start? One can only hope that the young pitching prospect debuts this season like Lance McCullers, but Velasquez is a total gamble. Taking a chance on him at $4.3 K means you can afford to roster Trevor Bauer or Matt Harvey. Velasquez has a 1.37 ERA in five starts this year at the Double-A level.
27) Kyle Lohse @ Pittsburgh Pirates ($5,600) – 14 HR in 68.1 IP? No thanks. Lohse is just awful right now. You want no part of him.
28) John Moscot vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($4,500) – Moscot didn’t show too well in his first MLB start of his career, giving up 4 ER in 5 IP, while walking three batters. Don’t expect Moscot to be much better in only his second start.
29) Jerome Williams @ Cincinnati Reds ($4,100) – Williams on the road in Cincinnati? Not good. He’s averaged only 5 IP over his last four contests, while giving up 4 ER per game over the same stretch. There is no logical reason whatsoever to roster Williams on Wednesday.
30) Shane Greene vs. Chicago Cubs ($4,700) – Greene has allowed 11 ER over his last 7.1 IP pitched, giving up 5 HR in his May 30 start facing the Angels. Yep, that’s 5 HR in one game! You better look elsewhere, with Greene not scoring a positive fantasy point since he faced the Athletics two weeks ago.
Tweet me at your own risk @TheRolyPolyBoy.