MLB-Value-Targets

We’ve got a big 11-game main fantasy baseball slate with a lot of really fun games and matchups. In the upper tiers of pitching, we have Justin Verlander ($11,200) against the Red Sox and Chris Paddack ($10,400) against the Blue Jays while the lower tier is poo David Hess bringing the meatballs to Coors. There should be plenty of scoring to go around on this slate so let’s look at the most likely spots to find it!


EDITOR’S NOTE: Chris Paddack (neck) has been scratched from today’s game vs. the Blue Jays. Robbie Erlin will start.


PITCHER

Stud

Chris Paddack, SD at TOR, $10,400 — Averaging 21.8 DKFP in 2019 with a .156 average allowed and terrific 1.93 ERA, Paddack has been everything those expected of him and more. He has just one game below 10 fantasy points and five with 20 or more, and comes into the best matchup for the studs against Toronto. He’s my stud of choice in all formats.

Other Options — Justin Verlander ($11,200), Caleb Smith ($9,700)

Value

Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. MIL, $6,600 — Why is Woodruff priced like this? Nobody knows but let’s take advantage of it and use him in cash and GPPs alike. Woodruff has just one start under 10 DKFP and has been incredibly consistent even in tough matchups with at least five strikeouts and five innings pitched in every game started this season. This price is silly and he’s the best possible option in his range.

Other Options — Spencer Turnbull ($6,900)


CATCHER

Stud

Jason Castro, MIN vs. CWS, $4,400 — It seems like every catcher on the Twins is an absolute monster and that certainly includes Castro. He’ll likely be playing at home against Dylan Covey ($5,300), who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate. Castro never hits high in the order, which is tragic, but his 2019 slash line of .233/.349/.589 is more than enough to consider him in every matchup against a RHP.

Other Options — Gary Sanchez ($5,200), Yasmani Grandal ($4,500)

Value

Austin Hedges, SD at TOR, $2,800 — Hedges is kind of raking right now and he’s starting to come back into the strong 2018 form that we all know and love. The batting average has picked up to .250 and he’s got two home runs on eight hits in the last 32 at bats as he seems to be turning a corner. The matchup with Marcus Stroman ($7,400) isn’t the best on the slate, but Stroman can give up a homer or two and for the price I like Hedges’ upside.

Other Options — Tucker Barnhart ($2,700)


FIRST BASE

Cody Bellinger, LAD at PIT, $5,700 — I was really high on Chris Archer coming into the season and all my hope is gone at this point. His pitch mix is all out of whack and the ERA is rising while he gives up fly balls to everyone and their grandmother. Bellinger is pretty good at hitting fly ball’s really far with 18 home runs on the season and a 1.237 OPS. He’s a phenomenal play.

Other Options — Josh Bell ($5,400), C.J. Cron ($4,900)

Value

Chris Davis, BAL at COL, $3,000 — Davis is not good anymore, or at least he’s not been good in 2019. He’s only hitting .171/.257/.318 and it’s even worse in the recent sample. Still, for $3,000 and hitting against a RHP at Coors? Yeah, I’ll take a shot on a random home run from somebody with power but no contact skills.

Other Options — Yulieksi Gurriel ($3,300), Yonder Alonso ($2,900)


SECOND BASE

Stud

Ryan McMahon, COL vs. BAL, $4,900 — Most of the play for the Rockies will be based on David Hess ($4,800) being a walking home run derby, but not McMahon. See, Hess is actually only a walking home run derby against RHBs, and he’s got a killer slider against LHH. No, McMahon is a play based on the Baltimore bullpen, which is giving up more extra base hits than any other group in the league and the game is at Coors. He’s a good play for a weird reason.

Other Options — Gleyber Torres ($5,000), Jonathan Schoop ($4,900)

Value

Ian Kinsler, SD at TOR, $2,900 — Kinsler has been about as bad as an older utility man should be this season but has gotten a bit better in each department as the season has grown. He’s averaging 6.9 DKFP in the last 10 games with seven hits, two doubles, two home runs and five strikeouts. At $2,900, he is a cheap piece to a hot hitting order in a solid matchup after scoring over 15 runs the day before.

Other Options — Nicky Lopez ($3,200), Starlin Castro ($2,700)


THIRD BASE

Stud

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. BAL, $5,700 — Usually I try to be a bit contrarian with my articles, but that’s not the theme today. The theme today is that Hess is awful and is especially awful against RHBs like Arenado. Arenado is very good against RHP with a .501 xSLG and .364 xwOBA (expected results). In the best hitting environment against the worst pitcher, you just make the chalky play.

Other Options — Miguel Sano ($5,000), Alex Bregman ($4,600)

Value

Ehire Adrianza, MIN vs. CWS, $3,500 — Eventually we are going to have to pay somewhere around $4,500 for Adrianza so I’m taking the discounts while I can. He’s been one of the hottest hitters in the league with 9.8 DKFP per game and a slash line of .458/.533/.875 with three home runs in the last 24 at bats. He’s really cheap and facing a pitcher that chokes up home runs and extra base hits. Take the discount and run.

Other Options — Brian Anderson ($3,700)


SHORT STOP

Stud

Jorge Polanco, MIN vs. CWS, $5,400 — Breaking up the monotony of the Coors bats in the stud spot, I love Polanco against Covey. Like I mentioned with the Adrianza blurb, Covey loves giving up extra base hits and Polanco is someone that does a really good job hitting them as evidenced by his 14 doubles and five triples (not to mention nine home runs) in 2019. He’s a solid pivot off assumed Trevor Story ($5,600) chalk.

Other Options — Trevor Story ($5,600), Javier Baez ($4,900)

Value

Jose Iglesias, CIN at CHC, $3,200 — I don’t necessarily think this is all that flashy of a play but it’s hard to find really high-upside value at shortstop, and the play is probably to pay up at this position rather than down. Iglesias has been hitting really well with a .361/.361/.472 slash line in his recent sample and the opposing pitcher can have some issues with RHBs, making him a good pick if you want 5-10 points from a cheap SS.

Other Options — Gordon Beckham ($3,400)


OUTFIELD

Stud

Joc Pederson, LAD at PIT, $5,100 — Joc has been one of the best hitters in the league when up against a RHP with top 5% marks in both wOBA and ISO in 2019. He’s hitting exceptionally well right now with a 1.217 OPS and .417 OBP in the last 30 at bats while averaging 10.6 DKFP per contest. Facing Archer gives him as much upside as anyone in the outfield position.

Other Options — Christian Yelich ($5,800), Eddie Rosario ($5,400)

Value

Josh Naylor, SD at TOR, $3,400 — Naylor went hitless in his first game since being called up to the majors but then came back with a three-hit game, including a double and two RBI. He’s got a fantastic pedigree and was raking in the minors, so we know he has a lot of power and this matchup can help him exploit it at a price that may be one of the lowest for him all season. He’s a great GPP option.

Other Options — Eloy Jimenez ($3,500), Brian McKinney ($3,400)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.