Happy Independence Day, everyone! Hopefully you’re out here living your best life on the holiday, but what better way to celebrate American than placing a couple of wager on America’s pastime? Here are some July 4 bets to consider, incorporating the entire afternoon and evening MLB card.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS. MIAMI MARLINS (11:05 A.M. ET)
Total Runs – First 5 Innings: UNDER 5.5 (-113)
Yes, you’re reading that time correctly, and you’ll need to get on this one early. This is just more playing the time and situation and using it to our advantage with a solid pitching matchup. After playing on Wednesday night, this is a pretty early first pitch for hitters to turn around and be prepared for.
Anibal Sanchez has just a 2.76 ERA over his last five starts, giving up just nine total runs in nearly 30 innings. The Marlins are really struggling in this series, managing just three total runs in the first two games combined, with just one coming against starting pitching. Elieser Hernandez has also been really solid for the Marlins in the month of June, with a 3.63 ERA in four starts. While the Nationals have some pop in their bats, Hernandez hasn’t let more than three runs score in the first five innings in any of his starts this month.
CINCINATI REDS VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (2:10 P.M. ET)
Luis Castillo’s been far from automatic against the Brewers this season, but his struggles have come at Miller Park (11.37 ERA in two starts). Castillo has a 1.92 ERA in nine starts at Great American Ball Park so far this season, and he gave up just one run to the Brewers there in seven innings. Backed up by the fourth-best bullpen in baseball, and one of the hottest over the last month, the Brewers should see terrific pitching throughout this entire matchup.
Meanwhile, Brandon Woodruff continues to be solid, but he isn’t on Castillo’s level. Woodruff has a 4.29 ERA away from home, and he did give up three runs to the Reds in seven innings at Miller Park. Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks 11th, and its offense is generally overrated, ranking 16th in runs per game. Cincinnati has the edge in this game, despite being underdogs.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS VS. MINNESOTA TWINS (4:07 P.M. ET)
This number is way too cheap for the matchup we get between Jose Berrios and Tanner Anderson. Berrios has a terrific 2.89 ERA through 17 starts, and just a 2.06 ERA in his five starts in the month of June. Meanwhile, Anderson’s four starts have lasted just 17 2/3 innings, allowing 14 runs in the process (7.13 ERA).
The Twins are still the second-ranked offense in baseball, and are even better on the road, averaging 6.3 runs per game. While Oakland’s offense has been hot, it averages just 4.5 runs per game at home this season, which ranks 20th in the majors. Oakland does have a slight advantage in the bullpen, which is the reason to consider playing the Twins on the first-five line when it’s made available.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. BOSTON RED SOX (7:07 P.M. ET)
This game is currently being priced as Rick Porcello vs. Marcus Stroman, but that might not be the case. Stroman is still dealing with a pectoral injury that has him listed as day-to-day, and he could cost him making this start. If that’s the case, the Blue Jays will need to use another one of their horrific openers, before moving to their below average bullpen. I like the Red Sox either way at this price, but you’ll want to lock it in without any pitching restrictions on the Toronto side, so your bet won’t be void if Stroman is scratched — you’ll give yourself much better value that way.
While Rick Porcello hasn’t been great this season, I’ll still take Boston at this price against Toronto any day. Porcello pitched six innings in the Rodgers Centre earlier this season, allowing three hits and one run. I’m willing to move past the 162.00 ERA he had against the Yankees in London (seriously). Boston’s fourth-ranked offense averages 5.71 runs per game away from Fenway Park, and the Jays rank just 25th offensively.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Dodgers with your favorite play
I’ll likely just be parlaying my grill with some ice cold beer on this day, but if you really want to parlay some MLB plays, take the play you feel strongest about and pair it with the Dodgers. DK Sportsbook has them sitting at -240 on the moneyline with Hyun-jin Ryu taking the mound against the Padres.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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