We have a eight-game MLB evening card on Wednesday, but with a good late afternoon spot, we’ll sprinkle and early play in the mix. Here are the spots that standout to me.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
COLORADO ROCKIES VS. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (3:10 P.M. ET)
LAD (-134)Hyun-Jin Ryu got smoked in his lone start at Coors Field this season, giving up seven runs in four innings. I think this price is an overreaction to that one outing, so anytime I can get Ryu while laying just 34 cents in juice, I’ll take it. Ryu handled Colorado’s bats just fine at Dodger Stadium, giving up one earned run in six innings. He’s continued his dominance out of the All-Star break, with a 1.74 ERA in three starts. Ryu’s also had some of his best starts this season during the afternoon — 3-0 in five starts with a 0.53 ERA.
German Marquez has struggled mightily at Coors, with a 7.07 ERA in 11 starts. He’s currently on his worst stretch of the season, with an 8.10 ERA in three starts post-break — and two of them came on the road! The Dodgers eighth-ranked bullpen has a massive advantage over Colorado’s 27th-ranked pen, and should help close this one out.
MIAMI MARLINS VS. MINNESOTA TWINS (7:10 P.M. ET)
MIN -1.5 (-114)We saw the Twins win a pitcher’s duel on Tuesday, and I expect more of the same from Jose Berrios in a very friendly spot for an ace. Miami, on the other hand, will send out Sandy Alcantara, who I have much less faith in against one of baseball’s top lineups.
Alcantara has a 4.08 ERA at home, and has really fallen off since the break. He has a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts, two of them coming at home. While Miami’s bullpen only had to fill a couple innings on Tuesday, it ranks just 24th in the majors. Berrios has carried his dominance into the second half of the season, with a 2.55 ERA since the break, and this should be his most favorable matchup of the season. Look for him to go deep into this one, before handing off to Minnesota’s 13th-ranked bullpen. A first five inning play could work here, but because of the bullpen advantage, I’ll play the full game.
NEW YORK METS VS. CHICAGO WHITE SOX (8:10 P.M. ET)
CWS (+165)We get a terrific pitching matchup here with Jacob deGrom facing Lucas Giolito, and I’m taking the better pitcher as a significant underdog. The bottom line is that the Mets have won just seven of deGrom’s 21 starts this season, in part due to his fall from Cy Young form, but primarily due to the poor bullpen. While deGrom’s pitched 14 scoreless innings in his last two outings, that came against San Diego and San Francisco, leaving him in a much tougher spot in an AL park. Of course, the main reason we’re playing the full game here is New York’s bullpen being the third-worst in MLB.
Giolito has struggled in some spots this season, but this doesn’t appear to be one he should have trouble with. He’s only has three poor outings this season (his last against MIN, and two against CHC), and a poor NL lineup coming into his park should set up favorably. The White Sox have a slightly above-average bullpen, and should be solid enough to close out a tight one while the Mets crumble.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (10:07 P.M. ET)
Lead After 5 Innings: OAK (-104)This is a pure fade of Jordan Lyles. I wrote up Lyles on Monday, when I thought the Reds would make for a great stack against him, but then Lyles was traded from Pittsburgh to Milwaukee. Brett Anderson’s been a decent pitcher this season, but all you really need to know are Lyles’ numbers. Here’s what I wrote about him on Monday:
Lyles has been a huge part of the problem, with the team dropping his last eight starts, a streak that dates back to May 28. During the month of July, opposing teams are averaging 10.25 runs per game in Lyles’ starts. He’s gone just 12 total innings in those 12 starts, giving up 23 runs by himself — an ERA of 15.00. I’m not expecting his Brewers debut to be impressive …
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MIN/OAK ML (+173)The Twins are in a really strong spot in Miami, so taking them off the run line and going with the moneyline as a parlay piece makes sense. Then Oakland is facing one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball right now. If we like the A’s on the first five inning line, then I’ll bet on them to hold onto that lead at home and get some plus-money here.
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